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Pachuca vs Atlas Odds & Prediction – Liga MX Clausura Finals Leg 2

Paul Attfield

by Paul Attfield in Soccer

May 29, 2022 · 8:07 AM PDT

Atlas FC midfielder Gonzalo Maroni
Austin FC midfielder Ethan Finlay (13) and Atlas FC midfielder Gonzalo Maroni (10) chase the ball during a match at Q2 Stadium in Austin, Texas on Feb. 16, 2022. Finlay
  • It’s Pachuca vs Atlas in the second leg of the Liga MX Clausura finals
  • Pachuca, down 0-2 from the first leg, is a -150 favorite for the second leg on Sunday, May 29, at 9:10 pm ET
  • Read on for betting odds, a full preview and best bets for this decisive match

After recording a 2-0 victory at home on Thursday, Atlas FC now goes to Pachuca within touching distance of adding the Clausura title to the Apertura title it won earlier this season. Any result other than a defeat by two goals or more would see Atlas clinch a Liga MX double when it kicks off the second leg of the Clausura final on Sunday, May 29 at 9:10 pm ET.

Pachuca vs Atlas Odds

Result Moneyline
Pachuca -150
Atlas +425
Draw +280

Odds as of May 29th at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Over/Under And Spread

With this title match involving the two teams with the stingiest defenses in the regular season, it was little surprise to see the under of 2.5 favored in the first match, with the same occurring here. Under 2.5 goals is currently being offered at -145, and in the first leg, only an injury-time goal ensured that it even came close to meeting it. With Pachuca being favorites for the second leg at its home stadium, Atlas is being offered at +120 on a spread of +0.5, which seems decent odds for a team that basically just has to avoid defeat by two or more goals on Sunday to be crowned champions.

Pachuca Hopes To Break Through

Despite losing the first leg, Pachuca might consider itself a little unlucky to fall 2-0 at Estadio Jalisco. Los Tuzos carried most of the play, with a 60/40 edge in possession, while generating more going forward too, producing 18 shots to the 13 unleashed by Atlas.

However, the team came up against a man-of-the-match performance from Atlas goalkeeper Camilo Vargas, and just as Liverpool found out on Saturday going up against Thibault Courtois in the UEFA Champions League final, a stunning goalkeeping display can turn a match on its head.

Can Los Tuzos Bring League Form To Bear?

Despite being shut out in the opening leg, it’s worth remembering that Pachuca was the joint top-scoring team in the Clausura this season. Guillermo Almada’s team scored 30 goals in 17 games, tied with Tigres UANL, and given the shot volume produced by the team, it’s not all that surprising. Over both the Apertura and Clausura seasons, Los Tuzos averaged almost 15.5 shots per game, easily tops in Liga MX.

While hitting those heights didn’t bring the desired result in the first leg, it’s unlikely to occur again – including Thursday’s defeat, Pachuca has only been shut out three times in its last 22 games, and only once at home over that span.

Atlas Hitting Top Gear

Having not won a league title in over 70 years, the 2021-22 season has been worth the wait for the Guadalajara-based team. Now just 90 minutes (or more) away from lifting a second straight league title, Los Zorros are hitting their stride at exactly the right time. After scoring just 21 goals in 17 league games, Diego Cocca’s team has now scored 15 goals in its last seven games, powered by the partnership between Julian Quinones and Julio Furch, who have each scored 11 goals and six assists.

Los Zorros Backed By Vargas

The Atlas goalkeeper’s man-of-the-match performance in the first leg was no fluke. The Colombian international led Liga MX this season with a save percentage of 80.9 and is second in the entire league having kept 14 clean sheets in 34 appearances.

One more performance like he had in the first leg should be enough to Atlas to clinch another title.

Pachuca vs Atlas Team Lineups and Injuries

Pachuca Projected Lineup: Ustari; Alvarez, Cabral, Tapias, Aceves; Sanchez, Chavez, Guzman; Hurtado, Ibanez, Ibarra.

Pachuca Injuries: None.

Atlas Projected Lineup: Vargas; Aguilera, Nervo, Aguirre; Abella, Zaldivar, Rocha, Reyes, Chala; Furch, Quinones.

Atlas Injuries: Anderson Santamaria (Injured, but possible).

Pachua vs Atlas 2021-22 Liga MX Clausura Stats

Pachuca
VS
Atlas
12-3-2 2022 Clausura Record 7-4-6
30 Goals For 21
15 Goals Against 15
WLLWL Recent Form (All Competitions) WDWLW

Pachuca vs Atlas Best Bet

Down 0-2, Pachuca’s fans will expect their team to come out flying, pinning Atlas into their own end and unleashing a barrage of shots. But that can’t continue all game, and it will be up to Atlas to weather the predictable early storm, and with Vargas and the joint best defensive record in the Clausura, there is no reason they can’t. Expect Pachuca to win the battle, but Atlas to win the war.

Best bet: Atlas +0.5 (+120)

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