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Real Madrid vs Ajax Odds & Pick: Champions League Round of 16 Leg 2

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Jan 4, 2023 · 6:28 AM PST

Luka Modric
Luka Modric of Real Madrid celebrates a goal during the Spanish Championship La Liga football match played between Real Madrid and Sevilla CF at Santiago. Photo from @goal (Twitter)
  • Real Madrid host Ajax in their Champions League Round of 16 Leg 2 match
  • Will Madrid coast into the quarter-finals?
  • Can Ajax pull an upset in the Spanish capital?

Real Madrid host Ajax at the Santiago Bernabéu in Spain for their Champions League Round of 16 Leg 2 fixture on Tuesday March 5, 2019 at 3:00 p.m. EST.

With a 2-1 road win in Amsterdam during the reverse fixture, Madrid return home as heavy favorites to advance from the round at odds of -1000.

Follow the odds for every team win the 2019 Champions League with our Champions League Odds Tracker.

Real Madrid vs Ajax Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total To Qualify
Real Madrid -1 (+110) -160 O 3.5 (+105) -1000
Ajax +1 (-130) +425 U 3.5 (-125) +650
DRAW N/A +315 N/A N/A

*Odds taken 03/04/19

When these sides met in Holland, it was Madrid that came away victorious on the road. However, they hardly had things all their way as the game remained scoreless up until Karim Benzema’s 60′ goal put Madrid ahead 1-0.

YouTube video

Ajax would respond just 15 minutes later through a goal by Hakim Ziyech to draw things even at 1-1.

However, Madrid would retake the lead moments from the final whistle when Marco Asensio guided in a cross by Dani Carvajal in the 87′ for the winner.

The two road goals gives Madrid a huge advantage ahead of Tuesday’s rematch.

Despite the loss, the Dutch side more then held their own with an advantage in shots, possession and corners. They were also close to taking a lead going into the half, before having a goal called back through VAR.

Real Madrid vs Ajax Leg 1 Stats

Real Madrid
VS
Ajax
13 Shots 19
8 Shots On Target 7
49% Possession 51%
522 Passes 526
2 Corners 3

Madrid are already struggling to find consistency scoring and now they’ll have to do without captain Sergio Ramos on defense. Ramos has been banned for intentionally taking a yellow card in the first leg.

Madrid Fall Out of La Liga Title Race

Since their leg one win, Real have been spiraling downwards, having won just once over four matches and losing three. In fact in the span of four days they’ve essentially been eliminated from two competitions.

A 2-1 home loss to Girona in their next match further set them back in the La Liga title race, before narrowly beating Levante 2-1 through a Gareth Bale penalty in the 78th minute.

However, Wednesday saw them come undone in front of their home crowd to their biggest rivals in the Copa del Rey semi-finals. At home to Barcelona, Madrid played well in the first half but had nothing to show for it. The game tilted in Barca’s favor in the second half through a Luis Suárez penalty in the 50′ minute, followed by a Madrid own goal in the 69′ and another Suárez penalty just four minutes later.

After a 1-1 draw in Leg 1, Barcelona advanced 4-1 on aggregate.

On Saturday, the two renewed their El Clásico rivalry just three days later in La Liga. Madrid was once again at home and once again shut out. This time a 26′ minute goal by Ivan Rakitić was all Barca needed for the 1-0 win.

Madrid rarely looked dangerous in attack and head coach Santi Solari was so desperate to spark the team on offense, he even subbed in the forgotten man Isco. It was to no avail and with the loss, Madrid have fallen a massive 12 points behind their rivals in the La Liga title race.

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Ajax Rolling in Holland

Since the leg one defeat to Real, Ajax have run out as big winners in each of their past three matches. The Eredivisie title contenders sit second in the league behind PSV and returned to league play with a 5-0 win over NAC Breda and a 5-1 win over ADO Den Haag.

On Wednesday, they traveled to Feyenoord in the KNVB Beker (Dutch Cup), and walked away with a straightforward 3-0 win over the third place Eredivisie side.

On paper, it’s clear Ajax are in better form, yet you can’t compare league wins over the 11th (Den Haag) and last place (Breda) sides in Holland, to Madrid’s two defeats to Barcelona.

Best Value Leg 2 Bet

Despite Madrid’s struggles, there is no doubt they are the stronger side overall and after two straight scoreless home defeats, surely they will come to play on Tuesday. After being knocked out of the Copa del Rey and seeing the La Liga title slip further from their reach, Madrid’s season is now fully invested into their Champions League success.

After being knocked out of the Copa del Rey and seeing the La Liga title slip further from their reach, Madrid’s season is now fully invested into their Champions League success.

Betting them to advance at this point offers little value. It’s also important to note that scoring twice and winning in Ajax has set them up to not need a win in leg two to advance. A draw or even a 1-0 loss would still see them move on. A 2-1 defeat in full-time would see the teams sent into extra-time and possibly penalties.

Ajax will be the more rested side and know they need to score. Madrid’s defense has already been shaky and now will be missing Ramos on top of that. Ajax have plenty of goals in them and will be forced to attack from the onset. Yet they also have a poor record against Spanish opposition having lost in 12 of their past 15 matches.

Bet Bet: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals -150 

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