Serie A Matchday 30 Odds & Picks

• Serie A’s Matchday 30 kicks off with ten matches over Saturday and Sunday
• Can Lazio keep their title hopes alive without the services of Ciro Immobile and Luis Caicedo?
• Read on for the full Matchday 30 odds as well as our best bets for the week

Matchday 29 saw both Juventus and Atalanta keep winning and Juve maintaining a four-point lead over Lazio in the title race. Roma, Napoli and AC Milan all faltered in their bids to solidify top six spots and SPAL were the only team currently in the relegation zone to pick up a single point.

After 40 combined goals being scored in Round 28, it was hard to top that in Round 29, though 35 goals were scored which provided for plenty of highlights and lots of OVER bets cashing. OVER 2.5 totals were 7-3 after going 9-1 the round prior, while both teams scoring happened in 7/10 matches after it occurred in 8/10 in Round 28.

Read on for the odds for all Round 30 matches and best bets for three this weekend.

Serie A Matchday 30 Odds

All odds taken July 2

Pick 1: Lazio vs AC Milan

When Lazio host AC Milan at 3:45 pm EST Saturday afternoon they’ll have the knowledge of where their title hopes rest with first-place Juventus having already played earlier in the day.

With Juve hosting a horribly out-of-form Torino they very likely could extend their lead over Lazio to seven points. If that’s the case, it’s another must-win game for Lazio as they need to keep pace. Should Juventus drop points, it’s an opportunity to jump right back into the race with a win over Milan.

Here's the standing at the end of Matchday 29! ⚽️#SerieATIM #WeAreCalcio pic.twitter.com/w3zDoSqoeA

— Lega Serie A (@SerieA_EN) July 2, 2020

Lazio came out of the break with a tough loss to Atalanta but have bounced back with wins over Fiorentina and Torino. Neither of those wins were overly impressive though and a dip in form and results may be around the corner.

Ciro Immobile leads Serie A with 29 goals, which is a little under half the team’s 66 scored on the year. There’s a big drop-off to second in Lazio’s team scoring with Luis Caicedo on eight goals. Why is this important? Because both will be missing from Saturday’s match after picking up yellow cards against Torino and now face suspensions for yellow card accumulation.

Lazio's two starting strikers WON'T be available vs AC Milan on Saturday pic.twitter.com/wzrj2Cs31S

— Italian Football TV (@IFTVofficial) June 30, 2020

Milan came out of the break with impressive 4-1 and 2-0 wins over Lecce and Roma respectively. On Wednesday, they were expected to easily pick up another win over the relegation-threatened SPAL.

Instead they fell behind 2-0 within the opening half-hour. A red card to SPAL in the 43′ gave Milan a golden opportunity to get back in the match and perhaps steal the three points. However, Milan failed to score until the 79′ minute and just barely escaped with the 2-2 draw when SPAL conceded an own goal in the 93′ minute.

Earlier this season Lazio were 2-1 winners in Milan. But previously, across six Serie A or Coppa Itaia matches, a total of only four goals were scored. Four. That stretch includes three 0-0 draws, a 1-1 draw and a 1-0 win for each side.

Lazio should be forced to play extra-defensive in this game and the UNDER 2.5 could be in play. I’ll bet the better value on a draw though at +225.

Pick: Draw +225

Pick 2: Cagliari vs Atalanta

After an impressive midweek win over Napoli, fourth-place Atalanta will travel to Cagliari (9th) on Sunday afternoon at 1:30 pm EST.

La Dea were surprisingly held off the scoresheet early against Napoli as the teams entered the half drawn 0-0. Two early goals in the second half though would pace Atalanta to the eventual 2-0 win.

The loss snapped a run which had seen Napoli undefeated at 7-2-0 in their previous nine matches.

For the first time in their history, Atalanta have won 7 straight Serie A games ? pic.twitter.com/mmR998yZwv

— Italian Football TV (@IFTVofficial) July 2, 2020

Amazingly when you consider the recent form of both sides, Cagliari were the 2-0 winners earlier this year when the sides met in November. That was a different time though for Cagliari who were in the midst of what would be an 11-match undefeated streak. It’s been the complete opposite for them since that streak ended with just two wins in their past 14 matches.

However, the Isolani have strung together another three-match run of late which has seen them defeat SPAL (1-0) and Torino (4-2), followed by a 1-1 draw with Bologna on Wednesday.

Until they give us a reason to bet otherwise, going against Gian Piero Gasperini’s Atalanta just seems foolish. Across all competitions they are now undefeated in 12, going 11-1-0. They’ve outscored their opponents in that stretch by a margin of 46-18 and have scored multiple goals in every match.

Alejandro Gómez is the first player to provide 15 assists in a Serie A season in the 21st century.

Papu is magic. Atalanta are amazing. 💫 pic.twitter.com/HXpvO72WXS

— Squawka Football (@Squawka) July 2, 2020

If you’re satisfied with a 50-percent ROI, Atalanta to win at -200 looks like a straightforward bet. But Atalanta to win and to score OVER 1.5 goals at -125 will definitely offer a little better value.

Pick: Atalanta win & to score Over 1.5 goals (-125)

Pick 3: Sampdoria vs SPAL

Another match at 1:30 pm EST Saturday afternoon sees two teams battling near the bottom of the table in 16h-place Sampdoria and 19th-place SPAL.

It’s hard to know how SPAL are feeling after their midweek 2-2 draw with AC Milan. They were huge underdogs in the match but shocked everyone by jumping out to an early 2-0 lead after the opening 30 minutes. However, their best laid plans came undone just before the half when Marco D’Alessandro took took a straight red card for tripping.

The second-half saw wave after wave of Milan attacks stifled by a resolute SPAL defense which was not breached until the 79′ minute. It looked like Luigi Di Biagio’s side was going to hang on for the win until an own goal in the 93′ minute allowed Milan to escape with the draw.

So while taking a point off Milan is a great result, it will also surely feel like two points lost. They were two crucial points when you consider SPAL are seven points away from safety and 17th-place Genoa. Time is running out but it’s still a task within their reach.

After picking up a red card from the sideline, Di Biagio won’t be able to coach from the pitch on Saturday vs Sampdoria, but in an empty stadium, moving a few rows up in the stands is not that big of a disadvantage. SPAL haven’t won much this season or lately. They have just one win their past nine league matches. Though they have scored against both Milan and Napoli in their past two matches. They’ve now scored at least once in nine of their past ten but have also conceded in just as many.

Their opponents Sampdoria, have played four times since the restart and all four have ended in 2-1 scorelines. They opened with three 2-1 losses to Inter, Roma and Bologna, prior to defeating Lecce 2-1 on Wednesday. The match saw all three goals scored through PKs, with Gaston Ramirez scoring both for Samp.

Sampdoria are far from safe themselves when it comes to relegation, only four points above the drop zone. While a tight, cagey affair could be in the cards with both teams needing to get something out of this game, goals could also be coming with two defenses that are extremely poor.

Sampdoria matches have now finished 2-1 in five-straight, while both teams to score and OVER 2.5 totals have cashed in each of their past eight.

Sampdoria were 1-0 winners over SPAL earlier this season, but the previous four meetings in recent seasons have all seen both sides scoring and at least three goals scored.

The price for simply both teams to score in this match looks like good value to me.

Pick: Both teams to score (-125)