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Serie A Matchday 33 Odds & Picks: Sassuolo vs Sampdoria, Lazio vs AC Milan & More

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer

Apr 23, 2021 · 11:43 AM PDT

Serie A Matchday 33
Lazio's Ciro Immobile celebrates after scoring his sides first goal during the Serie A soccer match between Lazio and Roma, at Rome's Olympic Stadium, Friday, Jan. 15, 2021. (AP Photo/Andrew Medichini)
  • Serie A Matchday 33 kicks off Saturday morning at 9:00 am EST with Genoa vs Spezia
  • Sassuolo have conceded a goal in 21/22 recent Serie A matches
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Matchday 33 here

Italy’s Serie A Matchday 33 sees three matches set to kick off on Saturday, followed by five on Sunday and two on Monday, culminating with Lazio vs AC Milan on Monday afternoon.

After this week’s midweek action Inter added a single point to their lead at the top of the table with a 1-1 draw with Spezia, while AC Milan fell in defeat to Sassuolo. That loss has also blown open the race for second place as well as top four and top six in the league heading into this weekend.

Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the Serie A Matchday 33 schedule below.

Serie A Matchday 33 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Genoa vs Spezia +150 +190 +220
Parma vs Crotone -136 +285 +360
Sassuolo Sampdoria +104 +265 +250
Benevento vs Udinese +220 +225 +132
Fiorentina vs Juventus +500 +310 -180
Inter Milan vs Verona -305 +410 +900
Cagliari vs Roma +143 +280 +165
Atalanta vs Bologna -286 +425 +750
Torino vs Napoli +320 +300 -130
Lazio vs AC Milan +112 +290 +205

Odds as of April 23 at DraftKings

Parma vs Crotone Prediction

It’s 19th in the table versus 20th in the table when Parma hosts Crotone at 12:00 pm EST on Saturday in Serie A Matchday 33.

Parma got on the board early versus Juventus on Wednesday in the 25th minute, but two goals from Alex Sandro and a third from Matthijs de Ligt paced Juventus to a comfortable win. It was the third-straight game where Parma had allowed three or more goals.

Crotone’s matches had been entertaining prior to their midweek clash with Sampdoria. In their seven previous matches, there had been a total of 37 goals combined. Not so on Wednesday, when Fabio Quagliarella’s 53′ minute goal was the only tally of the night in a 1-0 Sampdoria win.

These sides have only ever met once in their history and that came earlier this season when Crotone won 2-1 in December.

Given both of their positions in the table, there really is no reason for either to sit back or to be ok with a draw. Parma are 11 points adrift of safety in 17th place, while Crotone is 16 points back. With only six matches remaining it’s unlikely either will be able to save themselves from the drop.

Both teams have suffered from heart-breaking defeats of late as they desperately tried to avoid relegation, but have at least shown signs of life. Parma has just one win in 24 matches, but have scored in 11-straight. In ten of those 11, a bet on both teams to score and OVER 2.5 would have cashed.

Meanwhile, Crotone are no better, with one win in 14, but they too had at least scored in seven-straight prior to Wednesday’s defeat.

I wouldn’t be trusting my hard-earned money for either of these teams to win a match, but I do see an open match with goals.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 (-105 at Bet365)

Sassuolo vs Sampdoria Prediction

Two teams around the middle of the table meet at 2:45 pm EST Saturday afternoon in Serie A Matchday 33 with Sassuolo hosting Sampdoria. After Tuesday’s second-half comeback win over AC Milan (2-1), Sassuolo sits on 49 points in eighth place. Giacomo Raspadori’s goals at the 76′ and 83′ minutes were enough to grab Sassuolo all three points. They are seven points above ninth-place Sampdoria, coming off a win of their own, 1-0 over Crotone.

While Sassuolo still has an outside shot of grabbing a European spot, albeit small, Sampdoria will likely be happy to maintain a spot in the top ten of the table.

Earlier this season Sassuolo won on the road to Sampdoria by a 3-2 scoreline. Last season the teams drew 0-0 at Sampdoria and Sassuolo won 4-1 at home.

At home and in good form I’d give the edge to Sassuolo. But Sampordia too has won back-to-back matches and have only lost one in their past five. Wednesday’s win over Crotone was a rare clean sheet on the road for Samp. Away from home, they had conceded in 14 of 15 previous road meetings. They have also scored in 12/16 on the road.

But, despite being 19-13 to OVER 2.5 totals on the season, road matches have seen them go 8-8, with six of their past seven going UNDER the total. They’ve held the likes of Milan (1-1), Lazio (1-0 loss) and Roma (1-0 loss) in check as well. They’ll be in tough against the Neroverdi who have created 9.7 expected goals (xG) in their past five matches, while only giving up 5.8 expected goals against (xGA) in that same time.

There should be plenty of scoring on the pitch with Sassuolo’s Domenico Berardi (13) and Sampdoria’s Quagliarella (11) among the league’s top 15 scorers. Francesco Caputo, also with 11 goals, has been out since March 17 with an injury for Sassuolo.

Both teams scoring in this match looks likely, though is only priced at -210. I give the edge to Sassuolo but they’ve only kept one clean sheet in their past 22 matches.

Pick: Sassuolo to Win & Both Teams to Score (+240)

Lazio vs AC Milan Prediction

The top match of Serie A Matchday 33 pits sixth-place Lazio hosting second place AC Milan at 2:45 pm EST Monday afternoon.

Both sides are coming off disapointing midweek performances. Milan was up 1-0 late over Sassuolo, before concedeing twice and falling 2-1. With 66 points and teams behind them picking up points during the week, they now face the very real possisibility of falling out of the Champions League places. Atalanta and Juventus are both sitting on 65 points to round out the top four, while Napoli with 63 points is threatening to door-crash the top four.

That, after Napoli’s 5-2 win over Milan’s Monday opponent Lazio on Thursday. Lazio fell behind 2-0 within the opening 12 minutes and 4-0 after conceding twice more early in the second half. But then, the comeback was on, albeit shortly. Ciro Immobile and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic scored within four minutes of eachother to cut the lead to 4-2. But Victor Osimhen added a fifth for Napoli minutes later to seal the win.

Milan have come out on top in each of the past two meetings with these sides, winning 3-2 this season and 3-0 in their second meeting last season. In the first last campaign, Lazio won 2-1.

Prior to their midweek defeat, Lazio had won five-straight. At home, they also have nine-straight wins but have conceded in each of the past three. That includes conceding three to Benevento, once to Spezia and twice to Crotone.

Even without the likes of Zlatan Ibrahimovic (injured) who just signed a new contract, Milan should have enough to find the back of the net. They’ve scored ten goals in their past five, but have also conceded in each for a total of seven. Both teams need points, and I think both will score, with someone finding a second.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 (-120 at Bet365)

While you’re betting Serie A, be sure to read our guide to Derby betting ahead of next week’s big race!

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