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Spain vs France Odds & Prediction – UEFA Nations League Final

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Oct 9, 2021 · 1:00 PM PDT

France's Kylian Mbappe, center, celebrates at the end of the UEFA Nations League semifinal soccer match between Belgium and France at the Juventus stadium, in Turin, Italy, Thursday, Oct. 7, 2021. France won the match 3-2. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)
  • It is Spain vs France in the final of the 2021 Nations League on Sunday, October 10 at 2:45 pm ET
  • France qualified for the final with a dramatic comeback win over Belgium while Spain beat the hosts, Italy
  • We preview the game, look at the odds, and offer some picks below

Two of Europe’s soccer superpowers meet in Milan’s San Siro Stadium on Sunday, October 10 at 2:45 pm ET in the final of the 2021 UEFA Nations League. France qualified for the final thanks to a dramatic 3-2 comeback win over highly-fancied Belgium while Spain beat the hosts, Italy who were down to 10 men after the sending-off of captain Leonardo Bonucci.

We list the odds, preview Spain vs France, and offer below the best picks for this Nations League final.

Spain vs France Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Spain vs France SPA -0.5 (+185) | FRA +0.5 (-265) SPA +195 | DRAW +220 | FRA +140 Ov 2.5 (+110) | Un 2.5 (-150)

Odds as of October 9 at DraftKings

2026 World Cup Odds
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Spanish Triumph Over Italy

Spain’s win over the Italian hosts was more emphatic than the scoreline suggests, with the Spaniards being the better side by some margin over the course of 90 minutes. Even when it was 11 vs 11, before Leonardo Bonucci saw red on 42 minutes, La Roja was in control and they created many chances against an Italian team that was oddly out of sorts.

Manchester City striker Ferran Torres scored both goals for Spain before halftime – the first a beautifully guided effort from a Mikel Oyarzabal cross, the second a fine header from another pinpoint cross from the same player. He used the opportunity to show his club manager, Pep Guardiola, he is capable of delivering against the best defenders in Europe.

Torres a Doubt For the Final

The only downside for Spain was the sight of Torres limping off early in the second half but by that time the damage had been done and the Italians were already facing an uphill task. The hosts did manage a consolation goal with seven minutes remaining, but in truth, it did not trigger the nail-biting finish the Italian crowd was hoping for. The Spaniards will be hoping Torres is fit for the final although it may require a late fitness test.

The win over Italy made it three wins on the spin for Spain, who have bounced back well from their shock 2-1 World Cup qualifying defeat by Sweden at the start of September. It has now been nine years since the Spanish have lifted a major trophy – the 2012 Euros. Luis Enrique has had to bring through a new era of Spanish talent after their own Golden Generation – Xavi, Iniesta, Sergio Ramos and co – reached the end of their prime soccer-playing years.

Spain vs France Head-to-Head Stats

Spain
VS
France
6 Qualifying games played 6
3 Wins 5
2 Draws 1
1 Losses 0
13 Goals For 12
3 Goals Against 5
W-L-L-W-W-W Form Guide (All competitions) D-L-D-D-W-W

Dramatic Win for French

Didier Deschamps’ French team is rated among the best in the world – fourth in the latest FIFA listings – but they came into this mini-tournament off the back of a run of indifferent form. Prior to their semifinal win over Belgium, they had won just one of their last six games, and questions were being asked of Deschamps’ ability to organize and inspire what is a talented group of players.

Against a Belgian team desperate to justify its own number one world FIFA ranking, the French got off to the worst possible start in their semifinal and found themselves 2-0 down at halftime courtesy of goals from Yannick Carrasco and Romelu Lukaku. It looked game over but an inspired halftime team-talk from Deschamps triggered the reaction he was looking for and the French were simply sensational in the second period.

Late Winner by Hernandez

Les Bleus had to be patient though and despite being the better side from minute 46 onwards, it was not until the 62nd that Karim Benzema swiveled inside the box and pulled a goal back. Seven minutes later they were level when Kylian Mbappe scored from the penalty spot after Antoine Griezmann had been tripped, and the win was sealed in dramatic fashion when Theo Hernandez scored with a fizzing shot from the edge of the box on 90 minutes.

That victory will have done wonders for the confidence of the French and they will believe they can beat the Spanish even though their recent record against them is very poor – one win in their last seven meetings.

Spain vs France Prediction

The fact the French have had one day fewer to prepare for this final could be significant, especially as they used a lot of physical and mental energy to come back against the Belgians on Thursday night. If the Spanish can make the type of start they did against Italy and play at that same high tempo, then France could be in for a tough 90 minutes.

It is hard to see the French having enough left in the tank to make two comebacks in the space of a few days, so if Spain can make that flying start it could be enough. If they can keep Mbappe and Benzema quiet, then I fancy a Spain win which at +195 is decent value.

Pick: Spain to win (+195) 

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