England’s World Cup Odds Slashed with Sweden Up Next

• Only three top-10 teams reached the quarterfinals of the World Cup and they’re all on the same side of the bracket. 
• England is the only top-15 team on the other side, and their short odds reflect that.
• Is there betting value on Golden Boot-leader Harry Kane and his countrymen at this stage of the tournament?

Unfortunately for those who enjoy quality soccer, only three of the eight teams remaining in the 2018 World Cup are in the top-10 of the FIFA world rankings (Brazil, Belgium, and France).

Even more unfortunately, those three (plus Uruguay) are all on the same side of the bracket, meaning only one can reach the finals.

Meanwhile, only one team on the other side of the bracket is ranked higher than 20th, and that team (England) has, let’s say, a chequered World Cup history. There’s a significant possibility fans will see either Croatia, Sweden, or host Russia in the finals.

To better illustrate just how lopsided the two sides of the bracket are, here’s how the remaining teams stack up in terms of the world rankings.

The realities of the draw have taken their toll on the betting market; the clear upper crust in terms of quality doesn’t necessarily have the best odds. The easier road on the right side of the bracket has boosted the futures for all four of those teams, especially the Three Lions.

The graph below from our 2018 World Cup Odds Tracker shows the current odds for the remaining teams, along with their odds at various stages throughout and before the tournament.

Here’s the current odds in table form …

Is now the time to bet on England (+400)

Yes! (But maybe just to reach the finals.)

England was a relatively short +1600 before the tournament thanks to a favorable draw that saw them grouped with two overmatched teams (Tunisia and Panama) along with Belgium in the round robin. But credit where credit is due: they came up clutch late to beat Tunisia (2-1), hammered Panama (6-1), and then fielded an apathetic B-team during their 1-0 loss to Belgium, knowing that finishing second in the group would put them on the easier side of the bracket.

Sweden awaits in the quarterfinals [in] another favorable matchup.

In the Round of 16, they conceded the equalizer late after dominating a shorthanded Colombia side for 90 minutes. It looked like another classic English World Cup debacle, especially during the penalties when Jordan Henderson missed to give Colombia the advantage. But a crossbar and a heroic punch save from Jordan Pickford later, England were through.

Sweden awaits in the quarters after Blågult squeaked past Switzerland 1-0, despite being badly outshot (18-12), out-possessed (64-36%), and out-cornered (11-3). It’s another favorable matchup for a team that’s playing some of its best soccer in recent memory.

There is understandable hesitation about betting on England at the World Cup. They haven’t reached the semifinals since 1990, after all. But Harry Kane is completely rewriting the script for English strikers in major competitions.

The Tottenham star leads the Golden Boot race with six goals in four matches and has finished with stone-cold resolve, both from the spot and in the run of play.

Outside of the Belgium game, which really can be written off as a match no one wanted to win, England has not lost since falling 3-2 to France in a 2017 friendly in Paris. And they have played a number of elite teams since then, drawing with Germany (0-0, home), Brazil (0-0, home), and Italy (1-1, home), while beating the Netherlands (1-0, away) and Nigeria (2-1, home).

England has proven in recent times that they are now supremely competitive with the best of the best. While getting past Sweden and, likely, Croatia will be a tall order, it’s a much shorter order than what Brazil, Belgium, and France face.

The average odds for England across online sportsbooks works out to +400, but they are getting a little better payout at +450.