Team USA Still -750 Favorites to Win Olympic Gold Despite Loss to Nigeria in Exhibition Play

• Gregg Popovich’s USA team had a nightmare loss to Nigeria in Exhibition Opener in Las Vegas over the weekend
• Despite the shaky performance, they are still overwhelming -750 favorites to win gold in Tokyo
• Are the Americans still worth backing with a heavy wager to come out on top?

Team USA lost to Nigeria on Saturday night in their exhibition opener, and those who follow FIBA basketball were surprised but not stunned.

International basketball is quite different from NBA basketball, and coach Gregg Popovich’s team  has eight days and four more exhibition games to figure things out before leaving for the Tokyo Olympics.

The Americans remain heavy favorites, but there are very good teams loaded with NBA and Euroleague players from France, Spain, Australia, Argentina, Nigeria and Slovenia competing.

These games will be played in an empty arena in Sitama, Japan, but the stakes are as high as they get on the international sports scene. A gold medal goes to the winner. Shame goes to the other 11 countries if they believed they had a chance.

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Tokyo 2020 Olympic Basketball Odds

Odds as of July 12th

What Went Wrong vs Nigeria?

Some of that was on display Saturday night in Vegas when Nigeria, coached by Mike Brown, stunned the Americans 90-87 with a team featuring eight NBA players, many of them young who sit on the ends of benches in the NBA. They included Gabe Vincent, Josh Okogie, Precious Achiuwa and Ekpe Udoh. The Nigerians drilled 20 3s and outrebounded Team USA 46-34.

“That’s a talented group of players. It’s not a bunch of people off the street playing basketball,” Popovich said. “Every year, teams are better and better, and every year, one or two or three more NBA players are on their teams, so they’re a quality team. They’re as athletic as anybody. They’re very physical, and they’ve been practicing for three weeks.”

Kevin Durant shot 4-of-17, Bradley Beal was 1-of-7, Damian Lillard was 4-of-10 and Jayson Tatum was 4-of-7, saying afterward that the Americans were still getting used to each other on offense and had too much isolation.

NIGERIA BEATS USA!!!! pic.twitter.com/CpdJDQOW4x

— D’Tigers | Nigeria Basketball (@NigeriaBasket) July 11, 2021

“In a way, I’m kind of glad it happened,” Popovich said. “That loss means nothing if we don’t learn from it. It could be the most important thing in this tournament for us to learn lessons from it and see what we did to move on.

“I don’t think anyone should act, nor will we act, like this is the end of the world,” Popovich said.

Team USA plays its second exhibition game on July 12th against Australia, whose roster includes Joe Ingles of the Utah Jazz, Patty Mills of the San Antonio Spurs, Josh Green of the Mavericks, Dante Exum of the Houston Rockets and Aron Baynes of the Toronto Raptors. After that there will be exhibition games against Argentina and Spain before the team leaves for Tokyo.

Adjustments to Make for FIBA Play

A word to the wise: Flopping will be ignored by FIBA referees. So, too, will be those plays now so common in the NBA where a 3-point shooter fakes a defender off his feet and gets three shots from the line.

Guaranteed: FIBA refs will ignore it if anyone tries to play that game. There is no such thing as a flagrant foul in FIBA. There is an “unsportsmanlike” foul, and it counts toward a player’s personal foul total (the limit is five).

Luka Doncic against Lithuania in the Olympic qualifying final:

31 PTS
11 REBS
13 AST
57% FG
+15

Slovenia basketball makes the Olympics for the first time in their history. pic.twitter.com/DXCpeTeuZN

— Lami🌟 (@DwightPoweII) July 4, 2021

It Won’t Be a Cake Walk in Tokyo

The Americans, whose only center is Bam Adebayo, are grouped with France, Iran and the Czech Republic, which could mean a 3-0 start. But France won the last meeting between the teams in 2019 in China at the World Cup, and the roster includes reigning Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert along with Evan Fournier of the Boston Celtics, Nicolas Batum of the Clippers, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot of the Brooklyn Nets and Frank Ntilikina of the Knicks.

An opening round loss would sting for the Americans, but wouldn’t really matter much. The important games begin in the quarterfinals Aug. 2-3. No best-of-7 here. It is best-of-1, and the loser is finished.

The teams placed first and second in each preliminary group and the two best third-place teams will qualify for the quarterfinals. If the United States goes 3-0 (or 2-1 and wins the tiebreaker) they will face the top team from the third-place finishers. That could include Argentina, Slovenia or Spain from Group C or Australia, Italy, Germany or Nigeria from Group B.

The NBA talent is spread around, and it is important to note that many teams have former NBA players who have left the league because they can make more money overseas.

Wagering on Team USA at -750 seems unnecessarily risky. With the odds to high on the challengers, a better bettor strategy is to spread some money around on Spain, Argentina, Australia and France. They were the Final Four teams three years ago in China.