Andrey Rublev vs Lorenzo Sonego Odds & Betting Preview: ATP Vienna Open Finals

• Andrey Rublev will vie for his fifth title of the season Sunday in Vienna at the Erste Bank Open (8 am EST)
• Lorenzo Sonego has lived up to his “lucky loser” status by taking that second chance all the way to the final
• Rublev is a massive favorite in a match that’s not a sure thing. But there are other props worth exploring

Lorenzo Sonego wouldn’t even have been in the Vienna Open main draw, were it not for the late withdrawal of Diego Schwartzman.

Beaten in the final round of qualifying by Aljaz Bedene of Slovakia; the 25-year-old got into the draw as a lucky loser.

And Sonego likely wouldn’t have been in the semis – let alone the final – had world No. 1 Novak Djokovic not put in such a poor effort in their quarterfinal match.

Andrey Rublev vs Lorenzo Sonego Odds

Odds as of Oct 31 from DraftKings

A Shocker Over Djokovic

With both Djokovic and Dominic Thiem in the field, Rublev was at +1400 and Sonego … in the abyss before the tournament began.

Looking to tie Pete Sampras’s record of six year-end No. 1 crowns, Djokovic chose to play the Vienna Open for the first time since 2007.

But he clinched the year-end No. 1 spot with his second-round victory against Borna Coric. Which led to his quarter-final match against Sonego.

The match was a shocker.

Sonego broke Djokovic five times in six opportunities; Djokovic went 0-for-6 on break point chances. The 6-2, 6-1 win was over in 68 minutes.

Andrey Rublev vs Lorenzo Sonego Head-to-Head

Forehands,  Drop Shots and Hard-Court Struggles

Sonego has executed more than 35 drop shots through four matches – about two-thirds on the forehand, which is the tougher side to execute.

The forehand has been firing. He is riding a major wave, out of nowhere.

In five previous hard-court tournaments in 2020 (all outdoors), Sonego went 0-for-5.

Dating back to September 2019, Sonego had lost his last 11 consecutive matches on hard courts.

A Breakthrough Season for Rublev

Of Rublev’s six career titles, four have come in 2020. He made the quarterfinals both at the US Open and the French Open. And he came into Vienna having just won the St. Petersburg tournament indoors.

He began the season at No. 23; after Sunday’s final he’ll remain at his current career-high of No. 8. He is all but assured of qualifying for the Tour Finals in London for the first time.

And he hits the ball from the forehand side as hard as anyone on tour.

One Meeting, Long Ago

The No. 5 seed and the lucky loser have met only once.

It was four long years ago at an ATP Tour Challenger, so it doesn’t even count in the official ATP Tour head-to-head.

The conditions were also completely different. Cortina was played outdoors on clay. And at 4,000 feet of altitude, the ball was flying.

Rublev was 18 and ranked No. 194. Playing mostly at the Challenger level, he didn’t make much of a dent in the rankings that year.

Sonego was 21, ranked outside the top 300 and not much of anywhere.

Rublev won it 6-3, 7-5.

Is the Longshot Worth a Wager?

It’s a clash between two players at their career-high rankings, playing the best tennis of their careers.

But as hot as Sonego has been this week, Rublev’s best is better.

It will be a challenge for the Italian to execute that drop shot Sunday. As hard as Rublev hits the ball, Sonego will be backed off the baseline and will struggle to get the positioning necessary to execute it.

He also comes in second in the forehand-to-forehand comparison.

But the momentum is real. The odds for Rublev (-670) seem steep for what’s hardly a slam dunk.

It could take Rublev a set to adjust to Sonego’s game. So Rublev in three sets (+300) might be worth a flyer.

So would a small investment in a Sonego upset, given the odds (two sets sits at +1150, three sets at +1050).

Still, on balance of probability, the Russian is likely to make it fairly routine.

Pick: Rublev in two sets (-195)