- Dominic Thiem recently won the Barcelona Open
- Daniil Medvedev’s odds have been adjusted in the futures market
- Rafael Nadal is now available at plus-money
Sunday saw world no. 5 Dominic Thiem capture his first ATP Barcelona Open title by defeating Daniil Medvedev 6-4 6-0.
Thiem previously defeated 11-time Barcelona Open champion Rafael Nadal 6-4 6-4 in the semifinals.
The win has seen his French Open odds adjust to an average of +700, down from +1200 on April 1st. Sportsbooks have shown strong support for the Austrian, now listing him at +400 to win at Roland-Garros.
2019 French Open Men’s Singles Odds
|Player||2019 Men’s French Open Odds|
|Juan Martin Del Potro||+4000|
*Odds taken 04/30/19
Thiem now has nine career titles on the clay surface, but adding another at Roland-Garros may be tough. Just three times in the past 14 years has someone not named Nadal emerged victorious.
From 2005-18, only Roger Federer (2009), Stan Wawrinka (2015), and Novak Djokovic (2016) have been able to stop the run of Nadal wins. The Spaniard is the current two-time defending champ.
Thiem Downs Nadal & Medvedev in Barcelona
If there’s a worthy contender to Nadal’s thrown, it may in fact be the 25-year-old Austrian. On Saturday, in the Barcelona Open semifinals, he proved every bit up to the challenge of facing Nadal by beating him in straight sets on his home soil and on the court that bared his name at Pista Rafa Nadal.
The Barcelona tournament was another which had traditionally been won by Nadal. He had previously claimed the title in 11 of the past 15 years, including each of the past three.
Dominic Thiem beats Rafa Nadal 6-4, 6-4 in the semis of the Barcelona Open.
He has now beaten Nadal on clay each of the past three seasons.
Does Thiem have a legitimate chance to win the French Open? pic.twitter.com/tN06QqAHEE
— SI Tennis (@SI_Tennis) April 27, 2019
Thiem then advanced to play 14th ranked Daniil Medvedev in the final where he prevailed 6-4 6-0. The match lasted just 1:13, though Medvedev was showing clear signs of a shoulder injury throughout the match.
Thiem becomes just the second men’s player in 2019 to record two titles, having also won at Indian Wells where he defeated Federer.
Thiem now has 13 total ATP titles in his career. His clay court record is also as impressive as any, having gone 8-3 in 2019 and 121-41 in his career.
Not all of his clay court tournaments have been as strong, though. He was eliminated in the round of 16 in Monte-Carlo and round of 32 in Rio.
Medvedev has been a formidable player on the tour this year as well, and his average French Open odds have also been adjusted from +8000 on April 1st, down to +5700 today.
Entering 2019, the Russian owned just a 2-11 record on the clay surface. However, after a semifinals showing at the Monte Carlo Masters and his finals run in Barcelona, that record is now 10-13. He’s a longshot, but does present some early value for Roland-Garros.
Second-ranked Nadal will enter the French Open as the unquestioned favorite. The King of Clay has owned average odds of -110 throughout the duration of our tracking. That’s now been bumped to an average of +110, with odds as high as +135 at some sportsbooks.
From that perspective, Nadal could offer some value at his longest price right now.
Dominic Thiem with an unbelievable backhand! ?
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) April 27, 2019
However, Nadal has still yet to win a title in 2019. He began 2019 with a finals loss to Novak Djokovic at the Aussie Open and followed that up by losing to Nick Kyrgios in the round of 16 at the Mexican Open in February. Indian Wells saw a semifinals defeat (due to retirement) to Federer.
Now, his typically strong clay court season has begun with a semifinals defeat to Fabio Fognini at Monte Carlo and last weekend’s loss to Thiem.
Thiem’s Time Has Come
Breaking the long history of Nadal wins at the French Open may seem daunting, though Thiem should be up to the challenge.
While he is only 4-8 in his career against Nadal, he has now won two of their past four head-to-heads. That’s included a 2-1 record on clay.
Number of titles won by the current top five ATP players so far this year:
World No. 1 Novak Djokovic – ?
World No. 2 Rafa Nadal – 0⃣
World No. 3 Alexander Zverev – 0⃣
World No. 4 Roger Federer – ??
World No. 5 Dominic Thiem – ?? pic.twitter.com/5dr2VDnMxC
— Tennis Memes (@ATPWTAMemes) April 28, 2019
Thiem has history in this tournament and it’s certainly impressive. Last year he reached the French Open finals against Nadal where he lost in straight sets 6-4 6-3 6-2. In the two years prior he reached the semifinals of the tournament.
With odds as long as +1000 available at some sportsbooks, Thiem would be an excellent early investment for the 2019 French Open Men’s Singles.