Elena Rybakina vs Aryna Sabalenka Odds & Prediction – Indian Wells Women’s Singles Final
- Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka will meet in the Indian Wells final (Sunday, 4 p.m. EDT)
- It’s their first meeting since the Australian Open; Sabalenka leads their head-to-head 4-0
- Both are in fine form in this tournament. Who will win? We break it down and make a prediction
Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka, two of the best servers and hardest hitters on the WTA Tour, meet in the Indian Wells final on Sunday – just as they did in the Australian Open final less than two months ago. Read on for an analysis of Rybakina vs Sabalenka.
Rybakina vs Sabalenka
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [10] Elena Rybakina (KAZ) | +2.5 (-114) | +136 | O 22.5 (-110) |
| [2] Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) | -2.5 (-114) | -164 | U 22.5 (-122) |
At -275 odds, Sabalenka is the favorite in the Rybakina vs Sabalenka Sunday afternoon (4 pm EDT). Sakkari is the underdog at +220 odds. Odds as of March 18 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Rybakina Dismantles Swiatek
Rybakina took care of Iga Swiatek 6-4, 6-4 in the round of 16 at the Australian Open this year. So an upset was certainly possible.
But it was hard to predict that the 23-year-old Russian-born Kazakh would lay this much of a whooping on the world No. 1.
It was competitive – at the very beginning. After that, Rybakina did such an effective, aggressive job on the serve return – even on Swiatek’s first serve, which didn’t have its usual level of velocity – that it was no contest.
Elena Rybakina 💬: "Iga (Świątek), she's tough, really tough opponent, but when I play like this good and everything goes in -because today some moments I played, I would say, on my highest level- you can feel, okay, I can beat anyone if I always play like this." pic.twitter.com/nUF70HTqEs
— We Are Tennis (@WeAreTennis) March 18, 2023
Swiatek had been wrestling with … something this week. She’s still blowing her nose on changeovers, which first began when she caught a bug in the Middle East. And she took four hours to come to her press conference after her quarterfinal win, citing “personal issues to take care of”. It turns out it’s an issue with her rib, which might explain the slower speed on the first serve.
Rybakina vs Sabalenka Head-to-Head
| 23 (June 17, 1999) | Age | 24 (May 5, 1998) |
| Moscow, Russia | Birthplace | Minsk, Belarus |
| 6-0 | Height | 5-11 |
| 3 | Career WTA Singles Titles | 12 |
| No. 10 (Jan. 30, 2023) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 2 (Aug. 23, 2021) |
| No. 10 | Current Ranking | No. 2 |
| $7,606,187 | Career Prize Money | $14,446,131 |
| 15-4 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 18-1 |
| 0 | Head-to-Head Wins | 4 |
Sabalenka Sits Down Sakkari
In the earlier semifinal on Friday, Sabalenka put a similar beatdown on Sakkari. It was a match whose start was delayed more than half an hour because … the sound wasn’t working in the chair umpire’s chair and for the Hawkeye Live system.
There were even “emergency” real, human line umpires at the ready to take over, if need be.
A delay to the first women’s semi final here in Indian Wells due to microphone technical difficulties on court ⤵️ plus the chair umpire microphone not working.
🇬🇷 Sakkari vs. Sabalenka hopefully coming up soon… 🤷#TheFirstServe pic.twitter.com/gLUVUH7Ze9
— The First Serve (@TheFirstServeAU) March 17, 2023
In the end, things were resolved. But Sabalenka just suffocated Sakkari – so aggressive on the second-serve return that it put huge pressure on both the Greek star’s first and second serve.
Rybakina did that in the nightcap against Swiatek as well.
Rybakina vs Sabalenka Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Australian Open (F) | Outdoor Hard | 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 | Sabalenka |
| 2021 | Wimbledon (R16) | Grass | 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 | Sabalenka |
| 2021 | Abu Dhabi (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 | Sabalenka |
| 2019 | Wuhan (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 1-6, 6-1 | Sabalenka |
Big Edge to Sabalenka in the Head-to-Head
All four matches between these two have gone the distance. And only in the most recent in Melbourne in January did Sabalenka fail to win the first set.
Ultimately, given what we saw on Friday, it may well come down to which player defends her second serve better.
On paper, Sabalenka has a better, more effective second serve. At the same time, her serving woes from 2022 are never too far in the rear-view mirror and if Rybakina can put enough pressure on that second serve, she might manage to crack it on this very big occasion.
That’s a big ask. But she’s well capable of it.
Rybakina vs Sabalenka Prediction
This one sets up as a dead-even encounter, even if Sabalenka is a slight favorite.
Before she won her maiden Grand Slam title, we’d have put Sabalenka perhaps as a slight underdog. But she is playing like a major champion in the wake of that.
And Rybakina already is a major champion.
Picking Sabalenka in three sets (+270). But it could go either way and their history indicates that it will be a long one.
Rybakina vs Sabalenka Picks: Both Players Win a Set (+114)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
