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Elena Rybakina vs Aryna Sabalenka Odds & Prediction – Indian Wells Women’s Singles Final

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Mar 18, 2023 · 12:00 PM PDT

Aryna Sabalenka
Mar 17, 2023; Indian Wells, CA, USA; Aryna Sabalenka smiles at the crowd after she defeated Maria Sakkari (GRE) in the semi finals of the BNP Paribas Open at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
  • Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka will meet in the Indian Wells final (Sunday, 4 p.m. EDT)
  • It’s their first meeting since the Australian Open; Sabalenka leads their head-to-head 4-0
  • Both are in fine form in this tournament. Who will win? We break it down and make a prediction

Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka, two of the best servers and hardest hitters on the WTA Tour, meet in the Indian Wells final on Sunday – just as they did in the Australian Open final less than two months ago. Read on for an analysis of Rybakina vs Sabalenka.

Rybakina vs Sabalenka

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[10] Elena Rybakina (KAZ) +2.5 (-114) +136 O 22.5 (-110)
[2] Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) -2.5 (-114) -164 U 22.5 (-122)

At -275 odds, Sabalenka is the favorite in the Rybakina vs Sabalenka Sunday afternoon (4 pm EDT).  Sakkari is the underdog at +220 odds. Odds as of March 18 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Rybakina Dismantles Swiatek

Rybakina took care of Iga Swiatek 6-4, 6-4 in the round of 16 at the Australian Open this year. So an upset was certainly possible.

But it was hard to predict that the 23-year-old Russian-born Kazakh would lay this much of a whooping on the world No. 1.

It was competitive – at the very beginning. After that, Rybakina did such an effective, aggressive job on the serve return – even on Swiatek’s first serve, which didn’t have its usual level of velocity – that it was no contest.

Swiatek had been wrestling with … something this week. She’s still blowing her nose on changeovers, which first began when she caught a bug in the Middle East. And she took four hours to come to her press conference after her quarterfinal win, citing “personal issues to take care of”. It turns out it’s an issue with her rib, which might explain the slower speed on the first serve.

Rybakina vs Sabalenka Head-to-Head

Elena Rybakina
Aryna Sabalenka
23 (June 17, 1999) Age 24 (May 5, 1998)
Moscow, Russia Birthplace Minsk, Belarus
6-0 Height 5-11
3 Career WTA Singles Titles 12
No. 10 (Jan. 30, 2023) Career-Best Ranking No. 2 (Aug. 23, 2021)
No. 10 Current Ranking No. 2
$7,606,187 Career Prize Money $14,446,131
15-4 2022 Won/Loss Record 18-1
0 Head-to-Head Wins 4

Sabalenka Sits Down Sakkari

In the earlier semifinal on Friday, Sabalenka put a similar beatdown on Sakkari. It was a match whose start was delayed more than half an hour because … the sound wasn’t working in the chair umpire’s chair and for the Hawkeye Live system.

There were even “emergency” real, human line umpires at the ready to take over, if need be.

In the end, things were resolved. But Sabalenka just suffocated Sakkari – so aggressive on the second-serve return that it put huge pressure on both the Greek star’s first and second serve.

Rybakina did that in the nightcap against Swiatek as well.

Rybakina vs Sabalenka Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2023 Australian Open (F) Outdoor Hard 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 Sabalenka
2021 Wimbledon (R16) Grass 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 Sabalenka
2021 Abu Dhabi (QF) Outdoor Hard 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 Sabalenka
2019 Wuhan (QF) Outdoor Hard 6-3, 1-6, 6-1 Sabalenka

Big Edge to Sabalenka in the Head-to-Head

All four matches between these two have gone the distance. And only in the most recent in Melbourne in January did Sabalenka fail to win the first set.

Ultimately, given what we saw on Friday, it may well come down to which player defends her second serve better.

On paper, Sabalenka has a better, more effective second serve. At the same time, her serving woes from 2022 are never too far in the rear-view mirror and if Rybakina can put enough pressure on that second serve, she might manage to crack it on this very big occasion.

That’s a big ask. But she’s well capable of it.

Rybakina vs Sabalenka Prediction

This one sets up as a dead-even encounter, even if Sabalenka is a slight favorite.

Before she won her maiden Grand Slam title, we’d have put Sabalenka perhaps as a slight underdog. But she is playing like a major champion in the wake of that.

And Rybakina already is a major champion.

Picking Sabalenka in three sets (+270). But it could go either way and their history indicates that it will be a long one.

Rybakina vs Sabalenka Picks: Both Players Win a Set (+114)

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