Gauff vs Sabalenka Prediction, Picks & Odds for Madrid Final
By Chris Amberley in Tennis
Published:
- World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka is a -125 favorite over Coco Gauff in Saturday’s Madrid Final
- Gauff knocked off World No. 2 Iga Swiatek 6-1, 6-1 in the semis
- See my Gauff vs Sabalenka prediction and picks below, plus the odds for the Madrid Final
It’s a rematch of the 2023 US Open on Saturday in the Women’s Final at the Madrid Open. World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka faces number 4 Coco Gauff, with Sabalenka seeking her third singles title of the season. Online sportsbooks like her chances, pegging the Belarusian as a short favorite over the American.
Action gets underway at 12:30pm ET from Manolo Santana Stadium, with TennisChannel.com providing the broadcast coverage.
Coco Gauff vs Aryna Sabalenka Odds
Sabalenka is a -125 moneyline favorite, and is laying 1.5 games in the spread market. Gauff comes back as a +100 underdog, while the total is set at 21.5 games. These two have met nine times in the past, but Saturday will mark their first matchup of 2025.
Bet $1 & Double Your Winnings On Your First 10 Bets!
Odds as of May 2nd at Caesars. Check out SBD’s Caesars Sportsbook review to see the available sign-up bonuses.
Gauff vs Sabalenka Prediction
Sablenka has ran over the competition this week in Madrid, which is simply a carry over of her 2025 success. The 26-year-old is fresh off back-to-back finals in Miami and Stuttgart, and sports a 30-5 record on the season. I’m predicting her 2025 success continues versus Gauff on Saturday.
The World No. 1 is through to the Madrid Final for the third consecutive year, winning it back in 2023. She’s incredibly tough to beat on all surfaces, and clay is no exception. She’s reached the final in three of her past four clay court tournaments, and is hunting her second 1000 series victory of the season.
Sabalenka has dropped just a single set through five matches this week, elevating her play when the competition got tougher. She dispatched Marta Kostyuk and Elina Svitolina in straight sets in the quarters and semis, and holds a significant power advantage over Gauff.
Keys vs Sabalenka Last 5 H2H Results
Like Sabalenka, Gauff enters Saturday’s final on a high note. She, too, has dropped just a single set this week, and is fresh off waxing World No. 2 Iga Swiatek. Gauff took down Swiatek in straight sets 6-1, 6-1. The American is certainly not known for her prowess on clay, while Swiatek has won four of the last five French Opens.
Before we get too hung up on the victory, it’s important to give it some context. Something is clearly wrong with Swiatek. It was the second match she’s looked off in, after dropping the first set 6-0 to Madison Keys in the quarters. Swiatek was able to rally in that match, but she was never a threat to Gauff in the semis.
On paper, the win looks spectacular, but there’s a reason why Gauff is an underdog to Sabalenka. The American’s forehand is inconsistent, and she’s never won a 1000 series event on clay.
Gauff vs Sabalenka Pick
- Pick: Aryna Sabalenka Moneyline (-125)
Gauff holds a 5-4 record over Sabalenka all-time, but the Belarusian won their only matchup on clay. Prior to this week, Gauff hadn’t made a clay court final since 2022, while she hasn’t made it past the quarters in any of her previous six tournaments this season.
I’m of the opinion that she’s being propped up by oddsmakers thanks to the Swiatek result. I think you could justify these odds if they were playing on hard court, Gauff’s preferred surface, but on clay she is a tier below Sabalenka.
The Belarusian is the class of the women’s game right now, and I think she makes a statement ahead of Roland Garros by winning her second consecutive 1000 series event.
Sign Up for SBD’s Newsletter Now
Did you want the latest sports betting news, analysis, picks, betting trends, and relevant data straight to your inbox? If so, you’ll want to subscribe to SBD’s newsletter now!
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
