Mexican Open Semifinals Odds & Picks: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Cameron Norrie & Daniil Medvedev vs Rafael Nadal

• The semifinals of the Mexican Open will take place tonight, February 25th
• All four players competing are seeded and ranked in the Top 15
• Continue below for odds, preview, and best bet predictions

The final four have been set at the 2022 Mexican Open, also known as the Abierto Mexicano Telcel.

Both semifinal matches will be played this evening. The first, between third seed Stefanos Tsitsipas and Cameron Norrie is set for 9pm ET, while the second between first seed Daniil Medvedev and fourth seed Rafael Nadal is scheduled for 11 pm ET.

Where’s the best bet for the two matches? Continue below for the odds, a preview and breakdown of how each player got to this point, and a best bet prediction.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Cameron Norrie Mexican Open Semifinal Odds

All odds as of February 25th at FanDuel.

The 23-year old Greek star is the slight favorite heading into this match, and hasn’t dropped a set all tournament.

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Tsitsipas Perfect Through Three

The 23-year old was expected to be here. His odds to win the tournament outright were +550 heading into the tournament, and were the fourth best.

In his opening match here in Mexico against Lazlo Dere, he saw himself really get tested before defeating the Serbian player 7(9)-6(7), 7(7)-6(4). But he’s managed to breeze through his other two opponents, to earn his spot in the semifinals.

His most recent match against American Marcos Giron, saw the Greek record five aces to zero double faults, on route to winning 6-3, 6-4.

Having already reached a final in 2022, Tsitsipas will be looking to reach his second, but win his first title of the year. After a tough start at the ATP Cup, the 23-year old showed up at the Australian Open with a semifinal appearance, and has been cruising through since, with no appearance where he hasn’t at least reached the quarterfinals.

Norrie’s Seven Match Win Streak

After a tough start to the season, Norrie has shown signs of turning his season around as he’s riding a seven match win streak at the moment.

Here in Mexico, his first round match was cancelled, and he’s gone on to drop just one set on route to the semifinals. Tsitsipas will be his first seeded and Top 10 opponent he will be facing.

RELENTLESS 💯 @cam_norrie rolls past Peter Gojowczyk 6-1 6-0, into his second semi-final at Acapulco. #AMT2022 pic.twitter.com/AmXbIkWVax

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) February 25, 2022

In his quarterfinal match, he simply outplayed his opponent. The 26-year old didn’t pull anything out of the ordinary to win 6-1, 6-0 over Germany’s Peter Gojowczyk. His serve wasn’t his strongest assets on the day, but he when he did land his first serve, he went on to win 81 percent of the time.

Tsitsipas will be a tough opponent for the Brit, but he’ll look to avenge his loss to the Greek star that happened just a year ago, this time around.

Second Meeting Between Tsitsipas and Norrie

Tsitsipas and Norrie have played each other just once before, last year at the Lyon Open. In the final match of the tournament, Tsitsipas won in straight sets to win the title.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Cameron Norrie Head-to-Head Stats

Length of Match is the Best Bet

As mentioned, Norrie had a bit of a shaky start to the season this year, but is coming off a title win at Delray Beach. At the level the Brit is playing, it won’t be an easy match for either.

One of the biggest stats here, is Norrie’s record against Top 10 players. Tsitsipas falls in that category, and unfortunately the 26-year is only 3-23 when going up against any Top 10 player. With that, their head-to-head record, and the level that Tsitsipas is playing, it would be pretty tough for Norrie to take this one.

But the best bet looks to fall not with Tsitsipas winning outright, but how many sets this match may go.

Best Bet: Ov 2.5 sets (+114)

Daniil Medvedev vs Rafael Nadal Mexican Open Semifinal Odds

Medvedev Will Become No. 1

It was confirmed that Medvedev will overtake Novak Djokovic for the No. 1 World Ranking come Monday, when Djokovic lost his quarterfinal match in Dubai.

The Russian has had an impressive week in Mexico. He’s perfect through three matches, and has outplayed all his opponents. Most recently he defeated Yoshihito Nishioka 6-2, 6-3, to earn a spot in his third semifinal of the season.

Looking towards his semifinal match against Nadal, it’ll be tough. Medvedev hasn’t had much success against the Spaniard, having only one one of their five head-to-head meetings. But anything’s possible for the new World No.1.

Nadal is not the Favorite

There haven’t been many times in his career where Nadal is not the favorite heading into a match, but this is one of them.

The Spaniard’s opening match of the tournament was cancelled, but he has yet to drop a set in his three matches. Nadal is coming off a 6-0, 7(7)-6(5) win over American Tommy Paul, where after barely being tested in the first set, found himself in a battle come the second set.

Paul came out strong and built a 5-4, but was unable to seal the win, and Nadal ultimately was able to take it point-by-point, and eventually secure the win.

Daniil Medvedev vs Rafael Nadal Head-to-Head Stats

The Match Going the Distance is the Best Bet

Another match that is sure to be a tough, and exciting match to watch, with two of the best players on tour at the moment.

Nadal is riding a undefeated record in 2022, and Medvedev has also continued to proven himself. He’ll most likely be looking to avenge that Australian Open final loss to Nadal earlier this year.

These two look to be evenly matched heading in, so instead of looking for a best bet in an individual, look for the match to go the distance.

Best Bet: Ov 2.5 sets (-135)