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National Bank Open Predictions & Odds for Thursday – Men’s Singles Round of 16

Dave Friedman

by Dave Friedman in Tennis

Updated Aug 10, 2023 · 6:38 AM PDT

Daniil Medvedev serves against Matteo Arnaldi (ITA) (not pictured) during second round play at Sobeys Stadium
Aug 9, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Daniil Medvedev serves against Matteo Arnaldi (ITA) (not pictured) during second round play at Sobeys Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
  • Second seeded Daniil Medvedev highlights Thursday’s National Bank Open Third Round
  • Two Americans and one Canadian take the court in Toronto’s US Open prep
  • Where can we find betting value in the round of 16 for our National Bank Open predictions

In less than three weeks the final major of the tennis season, the US Open will take place in New York. The hard court season is in full swing, and Toronto’s National Bank Open features a strong field. Thursday’s third round includes compelling matchups, and interesting wagering opportunities. Read on to see all of today National Bank Bank Open odds.

Let’s consider the bracket, look carefully at the players, and see what plays might make sense.

2023 National Bank Open Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Mackenzie McDonald vs Milos Raonic +100/-125
Lorenzo Musetti vs Daniil Medvedev +425/-600
Taylor Fritz vs Alex De Minaur -125/+100
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Casper Ruud +115/-145
Gael Monfils vs Aleksandar Vukic -165/+135
Tommy Paul vs Marcos Giron -185/+150
Carlos Alcaraz vs Hubert Hurkacz -650/+425
Andy Murray vs Jannik Sinner +300/-425

Thursday’s favorites at the National Bank Open include Raonic, Medvedev, Fritz, Ruud Monfils, Paul, Alcaraz and Sinner. All odds from DraftKings as of August 9th.


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Mackenzie McDonald vs Milos Raonic Prediction

Both the 28 year old American and 32 year old Canadian have had strong tournaments thus far. McDonald upset sixth seeded Andrey Rublev in straight sets after a routine straight set victory over Aslan Karatsev. Meanwhile, Raonic won a wild three setter with Frances Tiafoe that included a marathon first set tiebreak that he dropped in the opening round. He took care of Taro Daniel last time out.

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After being dismissed in four sets by Alexander Bublik in the first round at Wimbledon, McDonald has gone 4-2 during the hard court season. Raonic beat Dennis Novak in the opening round at the All England Club, before falling to Tommy Paul in four sets. This is his first tournament in preparation for the US Open.

The players have split a pair of career battles, with McDonald taking the lone hard court match. Both duals came in 2018, and each were very competitive. There is little reason to believe this won’t be a tight test as well. Take the Over in these National Bank Open odds.

McDonald vs Raonic Picks: Over 2.5 sets (+130)

Lorenzo Musetti vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction

After beating Yoshihito Nishioka in straight sets, and Thanasi Kokkinakis in three, the level of competition goes up considerably for Lorenzo Musetti. This is his first hard court tournament of the season since he opted to stay in Europe following a third round exit at Wimbledon. While he played pretty well on hard courts prior to this year’s Australian Open, it has not normally been the 21 year olds preferred surface. He is only a shade over .500 on hard courts during his career.

Medvedev, who won his lone major at the US Open in 2021, went to the semis at Wimbledon before falling in straight sets to Carlos Alcaraz. This is his first tournament since, and he received an opening round bye before beating Matteo Arnaldi 6-2, 7-5. Hard courts have traditionally been the best surface for the 27 year old. He is 29-3 on them this year, with titles in Rotterdam, Doha, Dubai and Miami. He won this event two years ago.

This is the first ever meeting between Musetti and Medvedev, and one has to wonder whether it is a mismatch.

Musetti vs Medvedev Picks: Musetti Under 9 Games Won (-105)

Taylor Fritz vs Alex De Minaur Prediction

Taylor Fritz loves hard courts. The California born son of two pro tennis players, he is 27-6 on hard courts this year, and 14-10 on all other surfaces. Since losing in the second round at Wimbledon, Fritz has won the Atlanta Open, and reached the semis in DC. He beat Ugo Humbert 7-6 (9-7), 3-6, 6-3 in the second round in Toronto following a bye.

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Alex De Minaur is also in strong form. He lost in the second round at Wimbledon, and then was tripped up in the quarterfinals in Atlanta. Since then, he reached the finals in Los Cabos, falling to Stefanos Tsitsipas, and has two straight set victories in Toronto. De Minaur beat Cameron Norrie 7-5, 6-4, and Gabriel Diallo 6-4, 7-5 to reach the third round. This year De Minaur is 17-8 on hard courts, and while the the 24 year old Australian is strong on grass, this is his second best surface.

This pair has played each other six times, and each has three victories. De Minaur won their first three battles, all on hard courts. Fritz has won the last three meetings, two on hard surfaces including last year at Indian Wells and in the 2021 US Open.

Fritz va De Minaur Picks: Fritz (-125)

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