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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Novak Djokovic Odds & Prediction – Nitto ATP Finals

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Nov 14, 2022 · 6:57 AM PST

Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Serbia's Novak Djokovic greets Greece's Stefanos Tsitsipas, left, after winning his semifinal match of the French Open tennis tournament in five sets, 6-3, 6-2, 5-7, 4-6, 6-1, at the Roland Garros stadium in Paris, France, Friday, Oct. 9, 2020. (AP Photo/Michel Euler)
  • No. 2 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas takes on No. 7 Novak Djokovic Monday night at the ATP Finals
  • Djokovic, despite being a low seed, is a strong favorite to open with a win
  • Read on as we break down the Tsitsipas vs Djokovic matchup that has usually gone in Djokovic’s favor recently

The last time Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas met was just 10 days ago. And the longtime world No. 1 barely got through it. Will Tsitsipas be able to mount the same kind of resistance Monday in Turin (3 pm ET) as they open their ATP Finals group stage against each other? We preview the Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Novak Djokovic odds and match below.

Tsitsipas vs Djokovic Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[2] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) +3.5 (-117) +235 O 22.5 (-113)
[7] Novak Djokovic (SRB) -3.5 (-107) -305 U 22.5 (-112)

Odds as of Nov. 14 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the ATP Tour Finals

Djokovic is a heavy -305 favorite in the ATP Finals odds this afternoon as noted in the odds above.

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Tsitsipas Winless Since 2019

The head-to-head between the two, which began in 2018 with a three-set win by Tsitsipas in Montreal in 2018, has been almost unilaterally one-sided in the Serb’s favor since then.

The only match Tsitsipas managed to win was in Shanghai in 2019, another three-set victory.

Since then, Djokovic has won eight straight times. And with the exception of that most recent matchup, it has mostly only been super-competitive in back-to-back meetings at the French Open on clay.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Novak Djokovic Head-to-Head

Stefanos Tsitsipas
VS
Novak Djokovic
24 (Aug. 12, 1998) Age 35 (May 22, 1987)
Athens, Greece Birthplace Belgrade, Serbia
6-4 Height 6-2
9 Career ATP Singles Titles 90
No. 3 (Aug. 9, 2021) Career-Best Ranking No. 1 (July 4, 2011)
No. 3 Current Ranking No. 7
$21.056,329 Career Prize Money $159,951,008
60-22 2022 Won/Loss Record 37-7
2 Head-to-Head Wins 9

Only the 12th Tournament of Djokovic’s 2022

Djokovic has played very little this year – and left some 8,000 ranking points on the table between the Australian Open and the US-based events because of his decision to remain unvaccinated. Still, he still qualified for the ATP Finals on his own merits.

Djokovic would have been in anyway, via a rulebook loophole that combined his winning a Grand Slam (Wimbledon, even though no ranking points were awarded) and still being in the top 20 in the race. But in the end, he didn’t need the loophole.

He is 37-7 on the season, with four titles. And even if his level isn’t quite tip-top, he won 13 straight matches this fall before Holger Rune eked out a win just a week ago in the Paris Masters final.

In part, that might have been affected by his marathon victory over Tsitsipas the previous day in the semifinals.

Djokovic vs Tsitsipas Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2022 Paris Masters (SF) Indoor Hard 6-2, 3-6,7-6 (4) Djokovic
2022 Astana (F) Indoor Hard 6-3, 6-4 Djokovic
2022 Rome Masters (F) Outdoor Clay 6-0, 7-6 (5) Djokovic
2021 French Open (F) Outdoor Clay 6-7 (6), 2-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 Djokovic
2021 Rome Masters (QF) Outdoor Clay 4-6, 7-5, 7-5 Djokovic
2020 French Open (SF) Outdoor Clay 6-3, 6-2, 5-7, 4-6, 6-1 Djokovic
2020 Dubai (F) Outdoor Clay 6-3, 6-4 Djokovic
2019 Paris Masters (QF) Outdoor Hard 6-1, 6-2 Djokovic
2019 Shanghai Masters (QF) Outdoor Hard 3-6, 7-5, 6-3 Tsitsipas
2019 Madrid Masters (F) Outdoor Clay 6-3, 6-4 Djokovic
2018 Canada Masters (R16) Outdoor Hard 6-3, 6-7 (5), 6-3 Tsitsipas

Can Tsitsipas Find Some Confidence?

There are some matchups that just favor one player over another. And in the end, the fact that Djokovic is arguably the best returner on the planet neutralizes one of Tsitsipas’s best weapons.

His other problem is that his backhand just doesn’t hold up to that of Djokovic, whose mastery of that shot and his ability to change direction with it is one of the keys to his success.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Novak Djokovic Prediction

The Greek star, now 24, has had so many heartbreakers against Djokovic. That includes two five-setters at the French Open – including 2021 when he was up two sets to none and couldn’t get it done.

Last week’s third-set tiebreak will only add scar tissue to his soul when he takes the court against him again.

The one positive is that because of the round-robin format, it’s not a “do-or-die” situation. Tsitsipas, who is one of the former ATP Finals winners (along with Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev) knows he still has two more matches he can go and get to try to qualify for the semifinals.

Tsitsipas vs Djokovic has mostly taken place in the late stages of the tournament. So this one will have a different feel.

It might work to take the pressure off a little. But that’s true for both players.

Probably too risky to call for the upset. But fair to think that it’s going to take a while.

Best Bet: Over 2.5 Sets  (+148)

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