Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Novak Djokovic Odds & Prediction – Nitto ATP Finals
- No. 2 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas takes on No. 7 Novak Djokovic Monday night at the ATP Finals
- Djokovic, despite being a low seed, is a strong favorite to open with a win
- Read on as we break down the Tsitsipas vs Djokovic matchup that has usually gone in Djokovic’s favor recently
The last time Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas met was just 10 days ago. And the longtime world No. 1 barely got through it. Will Tsitsipas be able to mount the same kind of resistance Monday in Turin (3 pm ET) as they open their ATP Finals group stage against each other? We preview the Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Novak Djokovic odds and match below.
Tsitsipas vs Djokovic Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [2] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) | +3.5 (-117) | +235 | O 22.5 (-113) |
| [7] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | -3.5 (-107) | -305 | U 22.5 (-112) |
Odds as of Nov. 14 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the ATP Tour Finals
Djokovic is a heavy -305 favorite in the ATP Finals odds this afternoon as noted in the odds above.
Tsitsipas Winless Since 2019
The head-to-head between the two, which began in 2018 with a three-set win by Tsitsipas in Montreal in 2018, has been almost unilaterally one-sided in the Serb’s favor since then.
The only match Tsitsipas managed to win was in Shanghai in 2019, another three-set victory.
Since then, Djokovic has won eight straight times. And with the exception of that most recent matchup, it has mostly only been super-competitive in back-to-back meetings at the French Open on clay.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Novak Djokovic Head-to-Head
| 24 (Aug. 12, 1998) | Age | 35 (May 22, 1987) |
| Athens, Greece | Birthplace | Belgrade, Serbia |
| 6-4 | Height | 6-2 |
| 9 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 90 |
| No. 3 (Aug. 9, 2021) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 1 (July 4, 2011) |
| No. 3 | Current Ranking | No. 7 |
| $21.056,329 | Career Prize Money | $159,951,008 |
| 60-22 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 37-7 |
| 2 | Head-to-Head Wins | 9 |
Only the 12th Tournament of Djokovic’s 2022
Djokovic has played very little this year – and left some 8,000 ranking points on the table between the Australian Open and the US-based events because of his decision to remain unvaccinated. Still, he still qualified for the ATP Finals on his own merits.
Djokovic would have been in anyway, via a rulebook loophole that combined his winning a Grand Slam (Wimbledon, even though no ranking points were awarded) and still being in the top 20 in the race. But in the end, he didn’t need the loophole.
Sunday 6th November: Djokovic faces Rune in the Paris final
Sunday 13th November: Djokovic & Rune practice at the #NittoATPFinals
👋 @DjokerNole @holgerrune2003 pic.twitter.com/d4grUU4W9T
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) November 13, 2022
He is 37-7 on the season, with four titles. And even if his level isn’t quite tip-top, he won 13 straight matches this fall before Holger Rune eked out a win just a week ago in the Paris Masters final.
In part, that might have been affected by his marathon victory over Tsitsipas the previous day in the semifinals.
Djokovic vs Tsitsipas Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Paris Masters (SF) | Indoor Hard | 6-2, 3-6,7-6 (4) | Djokovic |
| 2022 | Astana (F) | Indoor Hard | 6-3, 6-4 | Djokovic |
| 2022 | Rome Masters (F) | Outdoor Clay | 6-0, 7-6 (5) | Djokovic |
| 2021 | French Open (F) | Outdoor Clay | 6-7 (6), 2-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 | Djokovic |
| 2021 | Rome Masters (QF) | Outdoor Clay | 4-6, 7-5, 7-5 | Djokovic |
| 2020 | French Open (SF) | Outdoor Clay | 6-3, 6-2, 5-7, 4-6, 6-1 | Djokovic |
| 2020 | Dubai (F) | Outdoor Clay | 6-3, 6-4 | Djokovic |
| 2019 | Paris Masters (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-1, 6-2 | Djokovic |
| 2019 | Shanghai Masters (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 3-6, 7-5, 6-3 | Tsitsipas |
| 2019 | Madrid Masters (F) | Outdoor Clay | 6-3, 6-4 | Djokovic |
| 2018 | Canada Masters (R16) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 6-7 (5), 6-3 | Tsitsipas |
Can Tsitsipas Find Some Confidence?
There are some matchups that just favor one player over another. And in the end, the fact that Djokovic is arguably the best returner on the planet neutralizes one of Tsitsipas’s best weapons.
His other problem is that his backhand just doesn’t hold up to that of Djokovic, whose mastery of that shot and his ability to change direction with it is one of the keys to his success.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Novak Djokovic Prediction
The Greek star, now 24, has had so many heartbreakers against Djokovic. That includes two five-setters at the French Open – including 2021 when he was up two sets to none and couldn’t get it done.
Last week’s third-set tiebreak will only add scar tissue to his soul when he takes the court against him again.
The one positive is that because of the round-robin format, it’s not a “do-or-die” situation. Tsitsipas, who is one of the former ATP Finals winners (along with Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev) knows he still has two more matches he can go and get to try to qualify for the semifinals.
Tsitsipas vs Djokovic has mostly taken place in the late stages of the tournament. So this one will have a different feel.
It might work to take the pressure off a little. But that’s true for both players.
Probably too risky to call for the upset. But fair to think that it’s going to take a while.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Sets (+148)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
