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Renegades vs Defenders Odds, Picks & Predictions – XFL Championship

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in XFL

Updated May 13, 2023 · 6:00 AM PDT

Jordan Ta'amu gets set at the line of scrimmage. XFL Championship
Feb 25, 2023; Las Vegas, NV, USA; D.C. Defenders quarterback Jordan Ta'amu (10) lines up behind the offensive line against the Vegas Vipers in the first quarter at Cashman Field. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports
  • DC is laying 6.5 points in the Renegades vs Defenders odds ahead of Saturday’s XFL Championship Game
  • The Defenders defeated the Renegades 28-26 in their lone meeting during the regular season
  • Keep reading for the complete Renegades vs Defenders odds here, plus betting splits, trends and picks

Year one of XFL 3.0 has been a major success. Nevertheless, even the most hardcore fan is likely disappointed with Saturday’s  Championship matchup. Read on for an analysis of Renegades vs Defenders.

On one side, you have the DC Defenders, who have easily been the best team all year long. On the other side, however, is an Arlington Renegades squad that was just 4-6 during the regular season.

Arlington spoiled the opportunity for a DC-Houston title showdown, which would have pitted both division winners against one another. Instead, it’s the Renegades who are representing the South, and online sportsbooks are not expecting them to keep pace with the Defenders.

Renegades vs Defenders Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Arlington Renegades +6.5 (-110) +230 O 48 (-110)
DC Defenders -6.5 (-110) -275 U 48 (-110)

DC is currently laying 6.5 points in the Renegades vs Defenders odds and is a -275 favorite in the XFL championship odds. The contest features a total of 48, with kickoff scheduled for 8 pm ET at the Alamodome in San Antonio, TX, and ABC and ESPN+ providing broadcast coverage.

If you’re just jumping into betting on minor league football, be sure you check out our comprehensive how to bet the XFL guide before getting started with your Renegades vs Defenders picks.

Odds as of May 12th at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Renegades vs Defenders Betting Splits and Trends

As far as the betting market is concerned, Arlington doesn’t stand much of a chance. The Defenders are drawing 89% of the spread wagers, and 91% of the ATS handle. DC was 7-3 ATS during the regular season and easily covered as 3-point favorites in its semifinal playoff game.

Total-wise, money is pouring in on over 48. That side of the total is drawing 83% of the over/under bets, and 89% of the handle. The Defenders were a league-high 9-1 to the over during the regular season, while their semifinal tilt with Seattle produced 58 points.

Arlington on the other hand, was 7-3 to the under during the regular season per the XFL stats. Their under run continued in the semifinals, as the Renegades and Roughnecks matchup fell short of its 41.5-point total.

Renegades vs Defenders Betting Stats

DC and Arlington met once during the regular season. The Defenders were in complete control for the majority of the game, but let their foot off the gas. That allowed the Renegades to erase a 17-point deficit, but DC righted the ship and won in overtime.

The Defenders enter play with the XFL’s number-one scoring offense and point differential. They were second in yards per game but led the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. They feature seven players from the All-XFL team, which was more than anyone else.

QB Jordan Ta’amu headlines the list, after finishing third in the league in passing yards and touchdowns. Abram Smith was the XFL’s leading rusher and touchdown producer, while Lucky Jackson led the receiving corps with five TD.

Their defense is no slouch either. They’re not immune to giving up points, but they make up for it with turnovers and timely stops. DC lead the league in pick-sixes with four and rank second in sacks.

Arlington meanwhile, was a dumpster fire offensively for the first two-thirds of the season until Luis Perez arrived. The team is 2-2, averaging 19.8 points per game in his four starts, as opposed to a 3-4 record without him and a 13.2 points per game average.

Perez threw three TD in the semifinal upset of Houston and will need to be at his absolute best to keep Arlington competitive.

On the other side of the ball, the Renegades boast the third-best total defense. They’re especially stout up the middle, led by their lone All-XFL team member DaVonte Lambert, but DC had no problem finding holes in that unit in their lone matchup.

Renegades vs Defenders Predictions

The Defenders averaged 6.4 yards per play versus Arlington and converted 62.5% of their third-down opportunities. Last week facing Seattle in the semis, arguably the second-best team in the league, they dominated from start to finish.

DC outgained the Sea Dragons by 90 yards and produced 12 more first downs. They built a 30-10 lead before letting up late but still wound up with a two-score victory.

XFL Point Differential

Team Point Differential
Arlington Renegades -33
DC Defenders +74

They haven’t put up less than 28 points since Week 2, and we shouldn’t expect an offensive letdown versus Arlington. The Defenders have too many weapons, and the Renegades simply won’t be able to keep up.

Arlington is a fun underdog story reaching the Championship Game, but they’ll be outclassed from the beginning on Saturday, even with Perez under center.

Pick: DC Defenders -6.5 (-110)

 

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