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Renegades vs Roughnecks Odds, Picks & Predictions – XFL South Division Championship

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in XFL

Updated Apr 29, 2023 · 6:00 AM UTC

Houston Roughnecks defensive TD celebration. Renegades vs Roughnecks
Apr 2, 2023; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Roughnecks defensive back Willam Like (4) celebrates his fumble recovery for a touchdown against the St. Louis Battlehawks in the fourth quarter at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
  • Houston is a 6.5-point favorite in the Renegades vs Roughnecks odds for Saturday’s XFL South Division Championship
  • The Renegades were the XFL’s lowest-scoring offense, while the Roughnecks led the league in scoring defense
  • See the complete Renegades vs Roughnecks odds here, plus betting splits, key trends, and picks

After a wildly successful regular season, the XFL playoffs kickoff on Saturday in Houston. The Roughnecks host the Arlington Renegades in the XFL South Division Championship after Houston finished the season atop the division with a 7-3 mark. Read on for an analysis of Renegades vs Roughnecks.

These two teams have met twice previously this year, including last week in the regular season finale. The Roughnecks had absolutely nothing to play for, but still proceeded to wax the Renegades in a contest Arlington needed to win.

Ultimately, the Renegades secured their playoff spot thanks to a San Antonio loss, but oddsmakers don’t expect their playoff run to last long.

Renegades vs Roughnecks Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Arlington Renegades +6.5 (-110) +220 O 41.5 (-110)
Houston Roughnecks -6.5 (-110) -260 U 41.5 (-110)

Houston is currently laying 6.5 points in the Renegades vs Roughnecks odds, in a contest that features a total of 41.5. Game time is scheduled for 7 pm ET at TDECU Stadium in Houston, TX, with ESPN and ESPN+ providing the coverage.

Just a reminder, if you’re new to wagering on minor league football make sure you check out our How to bet the XFL guide before getting started with your playoff picks.


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Odds as of April 28th at DraftKings Sportsbook.

 Betting Splits

As of Friday night, money is pouring in on Houston, the second-leading contender in the XFL championship odds. The Roughnecks are garnering 76% of the spread wagers as 6.5-point favorites, and those bets are accounting for 88% of all ATS money.

Total-wise, over 41.5 is drawing the majority of the action, a sentiment we disagree with – find out why later. 66% of the over/under tickets are backing the over, as is 62% of all money wagered on the total.

Betting Notes

Houston took both games versus Arlington in the regular season, outscoring them 48-23. Both contests wound up short of the total, something that was common in Renegades tilts.

Arlington was 7-3 to the under this season, and there were two very specific reasons why no other team saw a higher percentage of its games fall under the number.

The Renegades boasted the worst offense in the league. They averaged just 14.6 points per game per the XFL stats, and scored only 12 offensive touchdowns. On the other side of the coin, the Roughnecks were the league’s third-highest-scoring team, averaging 24.7 points per contest, and producing 29 offensive touchdowns.

The reason why Arlington was able to get into the postseason was almost entirely thanks to its defense. The Renegades boasted the fourth-best scoring defense in the XFL and were number one in that category prior to the penultimate game of the season.

That unit will have its hands full on Saturday, as Houston QB Brandon Silvers threw for 1,551 yards and 13 TD, while Deontay Burnett hauled in the second most touchdown catches in the league (6).

Renegades vs Roughnecks Predictions

Defensively, the Roughnecks boast the XFL’s top unit and feature two of the league’s stars on that side of the ball. Trent Harris led the league in sacks with 9.5, while Ajene Harris hauled in the most interceptions with five.

Houston, led by former NFL defensive guru Wade Phillips, surrendered a league-low 18.2 points per outing. They held each of their divisional opponents below 17 points during the regular season and were 4-1 at home. Four of those contests produced totals below 40, including each matchup versus South division foes.

Arlington’s offense briefly showed signs of life after Luis Perez took over the starting QB job, but they came crashing back down to earth last week versus Houston. Perez managed only 205 passing yards, averaging a dismal 5.7 yards per attempt. Expect more of the same on Saturday, with the Roughnecks prevailing in another low-scoring affair.

Pick: Under 41.5 (-110)


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