2028 Republican Party Presidential Nominee Odds Tracker
By Kevin Wolff
Updated:
- The graphs below display the average odds to win the 2028 Republican Party nomination
- Vice President J.D. Vance is the current favorite to represent the GOP in the next presidential election, ahead of others like Marco Rubio and current President Donald J. Trump
- See the 2028 Republican nomination odds for all the betting favorites and longshots
This page monitors the online betting odds to win the 2028 Republican Party presidential nomination. Vice President J.D. Vance is the current favorite, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio in second, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in third, and current President Donald Trump carrying the fourth-best odds to win the nomination.
The graph below shows the odds from Kalshi and reflects how they have changed over time in accordance with the biggest news stories, trends, and political developments.
2028 Republican Party Presidential Nominee Odds
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Vice President J.D. Vance has maintained a sizeable lead as the favorite to win the 2028 Republican Nomination. Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald J. Trump, and others all trail Vance with a massive gap between the current VP and the rest of the field.
2028 Republican Presidential Nominee Odds
Republican Presidential Nominee odds as of March 14, 2026, from Kalshi.
Timeline of GOP Nominee Odds Updates
- January 22, 2026: Vice President JD Vance visits Minneapolis to address ongoing unrest following ICE operations in Minnesota. His odds to win the Republican nomination are at 48% (+108).
- January 3, 2026: The Trump Administration announces a military operation in Venezuela. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is at an 11% chance (+809) to win the Republican nomination for 2028.
- December 16, 2025: Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance meet with officials from Denmark and Greenland. Their odds for the nomination are at 48% (+108) and 11% (+809).
- September 21, 2025: A memorial service for conservative activist Charlie Kirk in Arizona draws significant attention. JD Vance and Marco Rubio each give speeches and public statements. Their odds to win the nomination sit at 53% (-113) and 3% (+3233), respectively.
- August 27, 2025: Governor Ron DeSantis announces $60 million for cancer research in Florida. His odds to win the Republican nomination are at 4% (+2400).
- August 6, 2025: President Trump publicly states that Vice President JD Vance is ‘most likely’ to be the Republican nominee. Vance’s odds are at 55% (-122).
- August 2, 2025: Governor Ron DeSantis headlines a dinner event for the State Freedom Caucus Network. His odds to win the Republican nomination are at 4% (+2400).
- July 27, 2025: Maroc Rubio publicly endorses Vice President JD Vance as a strong Republican nominee for the 2028 Presidential election. Vance’s odds to win the nomination are at 54% (-117).
- July 2, 2025: Vice President JD Vance casts a tiebreaking vote in the Senate to pass President Trump’s tax and spending bill. His odds of being the Republican nominee are at 43% (+133).
- June 24, 2025: Secretary of State Marco Rubio announces the release of 10 Americans detained in Venezuela. His odds to win the nomination are at 8% (+1150).
- May 1, 2025: Marco Rubio is named National Security Adviser in addition to his role as Secretary of State. His odds of being the Republican nominee are at 5% (+1900).
- January 21, 2025: Marco Rubio is officially sworn in as the U.S. Secretary of State after a unanimous Senate confirmation. His odds to win the Republican nomination are at 5% (+1900).
Past Republican Party Nominees
| Year | Name | Popular Vote Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Donald Trump* | 49.8% |
| 2020 | Donald Trump | 47.4% |
| 2016 | Donald Trump* | 46.1% |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney | 47.2% |
| 2008 | John McCain | 45.7% |
| 2004 | George W. Bush* | 50.7% |
| 2000 | George W. Bush* | 47.9% |
| 1996 | Bob Dole | 40.7% |
| 1992 | George H.W. Bush | 37.5% |
| 1988 | George H.W. Bush* | 53.4% |
| 1984 | Ronald Reagan* | 58.8% |
| 1980 | Ronald Reagan* | 50.8% |
*Elected President of the United States
Donald Trump won the 2016 Presidential Election despite finishing with 2.8 million fewer (popular) votes than Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Trump was elected President again in 2024, defeating former Vice President Kamala Harris, winning both the popular vote and the electorate.
Archived Republican nomination odds:
After years of writing as well as Data Analyst work for Pro Football Focus, Kevin Wolff is now a Sports Betting Writer for SportRadar, and more specifically, SBD. A graduate of Fordham University in NYC, Kevin is also a full-time dog dad when he's not writing.
