4 NFL Player Trends for Wild Card Weekend Props You Won’t Want to Miss

I hope I have caught you before you locked in too many NFL player props for Wild Card Weekend. Because after diving into some player data and surfacing up these player trends, I have four more that you should consider.

There are four players who are hitting the over/under on their current prop lines in 66%+ of the games they have played in a similar scenario to what they’ll face in Wild Card Weekend. I think it’s bad pricing by the sportsbooks! But I won’t complain about it, rather try to make some money off it.

So, here are the four player props I am betting in the NFL Playoffs this weekend – I broke down and presented all the data behind these player trends in each section below.

1) Puka Nacua Quiet on the Road

The Trend: Puka Nacua has failed to exceed 91.5 receiving yards in 5 of 6 games as road favorite.

I am typically not an under guy, but I had to take this under after uncovering this trend and analyzing the data. In the six games Nacua played on the road this season where the Rams were favored – he missed their Week 7 game due to injury – he averaged just 78.2 receiving yards per game.

It’s also encouraging that one of those games as a road favorite was played against the same Panthers he’ll see on Saturday. Carolina managed to hold Nacua to just 72 yards on six receptions.

If you need more reason, it’s worth noting Davante Adams is expected back in the lineup, and scattered showers (or worse) are expected throughout the game.

• Pick: Puka Nacua under 91.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)

2) D’Andre Swift’s Receiving Reliability

The Trend: D’Andre Swift has exceeded 11.5 receiving yards in 11 of his last 14 games.

This modest yardage threshold has been surpassed by Swift at a 78.6% clip, with the RB averaging 20.1 receiving yards over that stretch. Here’s a look at each one of those games:

Swift’s separate trend of exceeding 11.5 receiving yards in five consecutive primetime games adds another layer of confidence. He even accomplished this feat in both games against the Packers this season.

With a young quarterback playing in his first playoff game, Ben Johnson could look to Swift more frequently underneath in the passing game. I also feel the expected gusty winds in Chicago will benefit Swift, who catches most of his passes around the line of scrimmage.

• Pick: D’Andre Swift over 11.5 receiving yards (-107 at DraftKings)

I am also betting this at 15+ for +121 odds at DraftKings.

3) Trevor Lawrence’s Home Field Advantage

The Trend: Trevor Lawrence has exceeded 236.5 passing yards in 5 of his last 6 games at home.

The general consensus is that the Jaguars will look to take advantage of the Bills’ terrible run defense in their Wild Card matchup. This has led to Lawrence’s over/under for passing yards falling to 236.5. However, his 256.0 passing yard average over his last six home games suggest this line is too low.

Trevor Lawrence’s Last 6 Home Games

Lawrence’s 83.3% hit rate in exceeding 236.5 passing yards at home creates a great value play that goes against the public narrative.

• Pick: Trevor Lawrence over 236.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

4) Herbert’s Success on the Road

The Trend: Justin Herbert has exceeded 223.5 passing yards in 6 of his last 9 road games.

The Patriots are good against the pass, only allowing 206.6 gross passing yards per game, which was 9th-fewest in the NFL this season. However, I’m not sure they’re good enough to move Herbert’s passing yards prop down to just 223.5.

Herbert consistently goes over this total when on the road, averaging 241.9 passing yards per game over his last ten away games.

• Pick: Justin Herbert over 223.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

I’m also betting this at 250+ passing yards at +172 at bet365.