Sinner vs Gaston Picks, Predictions & Odds (Jan 20)

• Italy’s Jannik Sinner is a massive -25000 favorite to top France’s Hugo Gaston in the first round of the Aussie Open
• Sinner has won both meetings against Gaston, though they haven’t met since 2021
• See my Sinner vs Gaston predictions and picks below

---

No. 2 ranked Jannik Sinner will begin his run for a third straight Australian Open title Tuesday, when the Italian battles Frenchman Hugo Gaston.

A Grand Slam title in Melbourne would put him into elite company, joining only Novak Djokovic as the only men to win the Aussie Open three years in a row in the Open era.

He’s enters as the odds-on-favorite in the Australian Open odds, and a monstrous -25000 favorite to advance to the second round.

Sinner vs Gazton gets underway in the wee hours of Tuesday morning at 3am ET from Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne with ESPN Unlimited providing the broadcast coverage.

Sinner vs Gaston Odds

Gaston is a +4000 underdog on the moneyline. If you’re looking for some kind of hope in betting an upset, consider that Sinner was dumped in his first match in his second career trip to Melbourne, in 2021, losing in five sets to Canadian Denis Shapovalov. Since that defeat, though, Sinner hasn’t even lost a first-round set in the subsequent four trips.

Sinner is also a hefty 10.5-game favorite on the spread, while the game-total line is at 26.5 for this best-of-five match.

Odds as of January 19 at bet365. Get a bet365 bonus code to wager on all tennis matches.

If you’re actually looking for something to watch for in this match (other than the result, which should see Sinner cruise), consider the fact that the No. 2-ranked player in the world — a guy who won two majors and was a point away from claiming a third in 2025 — is adding variety to his game.

Sinner is looking big-picture, and, while this should help him against all competition, it’s clear he’s eyeing the one person that stands in his way of total dominance: Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz, who bounced him in New York in the final major of the season, and has won seven of the last nine head-to-heads.

Variance is coming in the way of shot selection, working the slice in more, throwing his opponent off balance with more drop shots, and playing more net points.

Sinner vs Gaston H2H Results

Gaston hasn’t had much spark to the start of his 2026 season. Save for a couple of qualifier wins, he’s been bounced twice in Round 1 in both of his appearances this year, losing in three sets to Matteo Arnaldi in Brisbane and losing in straight sets last tournament to Cameron Norrie at the ASB classic in Auckland.

He’s faced Sinner two previous times, but both came in 2021, before his career really took off. But the results were about the same: straight set wins in both Miami and Marseille, both on hard courts.

Last season, Gaston failed to make it to the third round in any tournament he played in all year.

Sinner vs Gaston Picks & Prediction

• Over 26.5 Games (-120 at bet365)

Sinner started implementing changes right after New York, and these slightly-more-than-subtle additions resulted in wins in four of his next five tournaments, including the ATP Tour Finals.

But even before considering that tinkering affecting his game, the Italian doesn’t struggle with his opponents, but even in his straight set wins, he does have a lot of back and forth.

In six Aussie Open appearances, only once has Sinner finished a match Under the total that he has for Tuesday. He’s won three tie-breaker sets and had to win a set 7-5 twice, while having a 6-4 or 4-6 set six times.

Gaston surely won’t win, but Sinner will get acclimatized to Melbourne, and give him every opportunity to swing away.