NFL Conference Championship Touchdown Prop Analysis: TD Trends & Defensive Stats to Know

When it comes to betting touchdowns in the NFL Conference Championships, there are two different views you can take: (1) the glass half-empty view, which is that none of the four teams playing give up many touchdowns; or (2) the glass half-full perspective, which is that no player’s odds to score a touchdown are that short, potentially resulting in more opportunities to find value.

Also consider that one team is starting a brand new quarterback this week (Broncos), the NFC Championship will mark the third meeting between the Rams and Seahawks this season, as well as the Patriots offense accounting for just four touchdowns in two playoff games after scoring the second-most points in the regular season, and there is a lot to consider before placing your NFL TD bets for the weekend.

Let me take you through all the anytime TD odds, TD stats (touchdown leaders and consistency), and defensive stats pertinent to make the best anytime TD picks for Sunday.

NFL Anytime Touchdown Stats & Odds for Conference Championships

All of the odds above are from bet365 on Friday afternoon. Rashid Shaheed is only marked as having ten games played, since I am not counting any of his games with the Saints. Those mean nothing when assessing how he has performed with the Seahawks.

Kenneth Walker III is the player with the best odds to score a touchdown in the Conference Championships this weekend. His -150 odds imply a 60% chance to score a TD against the Rams. If you bet $10 on KW3 to score a TD, you would stand to win $6.67 and return $16.67.

While Walker only has 8 touchdowns in 18 games played this season, three of which came last weekend, he is the unquestioned lead back in Seattle now after Zach Charbonnet suffered a season-ending knee injury against the 49ers last week. Charbonnet was getting a lot of the red zone touches for the Seahawks, but those will presumably end up with Walker now.

Of the players suiting up in the Conference Championships, Kyren Williams is the player who has scored a touchdown in the highest percentage of games, as he has scored 12 touchdowns in 19 games (63.2%). He also has the most total touchdowns. Davante Adams and Puka Nacua are the only other players in these two games who have scored a TD in more than 50% of their total games played this season.

Colby Parksinson and Courtland Sutton stand out as players whose odds are much longer than their touchdown scoring consistency would suggest. Parkinson has a touchdown in 41.2% of his games played this season, but is given +320 odds to score a touchdown this weekend – his implied probability from those odds is just 23.8%. Sutton has 7 touchdowns in 18 games played (38.9%), but is given +300 odds to score a touchdown this weekend. His implied probability from those odds is just 25%, though this one is a little easier to understand with a new QB throwing him the ball.

On the other end, Jaleel McLaughlin and Cooper Kupp are given very short odds to score a touchdown in spite of not having scored much this season. McLaughlin is getting +250 odds to score a touchdown, which implies a 28.6% chance, but has only scored 1 touchdown in 9 games played (11.1%). Kupp is getting +280 odds, implying a 26.3% chance, while only scoring 2 touchdowns in 17 games (11.8%).

Playoff Touchdown Leaders:

1. Kenneth Walker III: 3 total TDs (1 game)
2. Kyren Williams: 3 total TDs (2 games)
3. Puka Nacua: 2 total TDs (2 games)
4. Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 1 total TD (1 game)
5. Marvin Mims: 1 total TD (1 game)

All of Colby Parkinson, DeMario Douglas, Frank Crum, Hunter Henry, Kayshon Boutte, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, and Stefon Diggs all have one touchdown too.

Notable Active Touchdown Streaks

• Kyren Williams – has a touchdown in each of his last 2 games (both playoff games)

The Rams RB is the only player riding an active touchdown streak of at least two games.

Anytime TD Defensive Stats & Analysis

The stats in the table above combine the 2025 regular season and two weeks of playoffs we have seen so far.

The Seahawks are allowing just 16.6 points per game, the fewest in the NFL this season (when considering playoffs too). They’re only surrendering 1.72 touchdowns per game, with the majority coming through the air.

The Rams are allowing the most points per game among the four teams standing. LA is allowing 20.7 points per contest, which ranks 10th in the league – still quite impressive. Simply put, the defenses we are preparing to see on Sunday are all at least pretty good, some of which are great.

None of these teams are allowing more than 0.61 rushing touchdowns per game. The biggest vulnerability we can see is the Rams passing defense, as they’re allowing 1.53 passing touchdowns per game.

Looking at red zone defense, three of the teams rank in the top five for red zone touchdown % allowed. Denver ranks the best among the four, only allowing a TD on 44.2% of their opponents’ red zone drives, which is second-best in the league. The Patriots are the worst in this category, giving up a TD on 62.2% of their opponents’ red zone drives. But they don’t allow teams to enter the red zone very often.

Looking to recent results, not a single one of these four teams allowed a rushing touchdown last week. It is worth noting that the Broncos gave up 30 points, which was three touchdowns (all of which came through the air), to the Bills in their lone playoff game so far. Denver also allowed Buffalo to score a touchdown on 54.6% of their red zone drives. Both of these are much worse than how they performed in the regular season.

NFL Conference Championship TD Betting Strategy

Using all of the data above, here is how I plan to bet touchdowns this weekend:

• I can’t look away from Kenneth Walker III now that Charbonnet is out. Not only do I expect him to handle the vast majority of the touches, but he is the only player who has scored a TD in both games between the Rams and Seahawks this season. He’s as long as -145 at theScore Bet.
• After Puka Nacua torched the Seahawks for 225 receiving yards and two touchdowns in Week 16, I expect Mike Mcdonald to put together a firm plan to ensure Nacua is held in check on Sunday. With that in mind, I believe we’ll see Davante Adams, who scored in their Week 11 meeting, left with favorable matchups. His best odds are +125 at theScore Bet.
• The Broncos run defense really tightens up in the red zone, but they have some vulnerability through the air. I like Kayshon Boutte to be the player who takes advantage. Boutte played the second most snaps (53.1%) among Patriots receivers in the Wild Card Round, and by far the most in the Divisional Round (83.1%). I like New England to look to target him versus Riley Moss. The best odds to bet Boutte to score a TD are +260 at bet365.
• I don’t believe Denver’s offense is going to suffer much with Jarrett Stidham taking over. I actually think he might know the offense better than Bo Nix right now, and he showed a strong willingness to push the ball down the field in the preseason. The Broncos receiver who is open a lot more than his stats would suggest is Courtland Sutton, and his +300 odds at bet365 are just too good to pass up.