How to Bet on Underdogs in the 2026 World Cup

Betting on an underdog to win the World Cup is a tough way to make money.

But with an expanded 48-team field, more groups and knockout rounds than ever before, betting on underdogs to win at different points during the 2026 World Cup can be profitable.

Identifying those 2026 World Cup underdogs, and when to bet on them, is the tough part. But that’s why I’m here.

Explore World Cup Underdogs: How to Pick Underdogs for 2026 World Cup | Bets to Make on World Cup Underdogs | FAQs

How to Pick Underdogs for 2026 World Cup

Correctly picking any team to win when betting on the World Cup will be a profitable venture, as a wide-open field means the favorites are paying at 5-to-1 or better.

But getting on board with the right team can maximize your winnings, and isn’t it more fun to hit on a team that nobody saw coming?

To see it yourself, look in these categories.

World Cup Host Team Advantage

It’s been 16 years, but I can still hear the vuvuzelas and the explosion of sound when South Africa scored in the opener of the 2010 World Cup against Mexico. Being the host nation in the World Cup is an incredible advantage for several reasons.

This year, it’s the United States, Canada and Mexico that get to experience that, and all three are listed outside the top 10 for odds to win the whole thing.

The host nation bump is a real thing for underdogs. In 2018, Russia made a surprising trip to the quarterfinals. South Africa failed to get out of the group but drew Mexico and beat France in 2010. South Korea made a shocking run to the semifinals and placed third in 2002.

Home fans and familiarity with the travel are advantages that play a big role, especially in a tournament that will be spanning a massive continent.

Coming into this year’s competition, the US and Mexico are both favored to win their groups, while Canada is slotted third in Group B. Each nation will play all of its Group Play matches in their home countries, however.

High-Scoring World Cup Underdogs Can be Dangerous

It’s no secret that soccer is not a high-scoring game, so having one of the best goalscorers in the world, or a forward who gets hot can carry an underdog further than bettors would think.

The obvious team to look at here is Norway, which features Manchester City star Erling Haaland, the world’s best goalscorer. Haaland has 55 goals in 48 appearances with Norway, averaging 1.27 goals per 90 minutes.

That includes 16 goals in eight World Cup Qualifiers this cycle. He’s a menace, and Norway could ride him through Group I and into the knockout stages, where no one would want to see him.

Organized Defensive Underdogs can Thrive in World Cup

Again, scoring is hard, and in the international game when players don’t have the same offensive chemistry as they do during their club campaigns, a well-organized defensive team can frustrate better opponents and survive deep into the World Cup.

England, France, Spain and Argentina are considered the best defensive teams in the world, but none of those are underdogs, and their attacks will also be fierce.

Looking deeper down the list, you’ll find Morocco, which proved tough to break down in 2022 on its way to the semifinals. The AFCON champs (awarded after a month, but still) were widely considered a team the favorites did not want to see in their group, and it was Brazil that gets the honor in Group C.

Ecuador survived the South American gauntlet with a young, stout defensive core led by Piero Hincapie, Willian Pacho and Joel Ordonez. They’re favored to get out of Group C along with Germany.

Japan, second favorite in Group F, is one of the most highly disciplined squads in the tournament that employs a low block which has proven difficult to breakdown.

With the expanded field and eight third-place teams now qualifying for the knockouts, a defensive stalwart could steal one game or draw three and find its way out of the group this year.

Teams Entering the 2026 World Cup With Momentum

In-form teams have been known to continue that form into a World Cup. Lionel Messi’s Argentina is the most recent example, winning in 2022 after claiming the Copa America title in 2021.

You can start back in South America when looking for teams playing well heading into this summer, as Colombia was the 2024 Copa America runner-up. The Colombians also won five of their six matches in the Fall of 2025, and are second favorite to Portugal in Group K.

While the AFCON title it won on the field now belongs to Morocco, there’s no denying the type of team Senegal has, and the run its on.

In its past 13 matches, including AFCON, World Cup Qualifiers and friendlies, Senegal has just one loss on the field, a 2-0 defeat against Brazil in November of 2015.

Bets to Make on Underdogs in 2026 World Cup

None of the teams referenced above as underdogs are shorter than 25-to-1 to win the 2026 World Cup, as Norway is listed at +2500 at DraftKings.

Betting on any to lift the trophy can’t be recommended as anything other than a Hail Mary play, maybe with a bonus bet.

There are markets at soccer betting apps, however, where betting on these teams makes sense.

World Cup Underdog Bets to Win the Group

Group Winner bets are among the World Cup futures that offer an opportunity to cash a bet early on, and spot an underdog making early noise.

A team like Canada could be interesting in Group B, because of the aforementioned home-field advantage. None of it groupmates are among the tournament favorites, not even Italy if it wins its qualifying playoff.

But my pick here is Japan in Group F, which DraftKings has listed at +320. Netherlands is the favorite here, and while strong, it could find breaking down that Japanese defense difficult. And as much as this hurts me as a Liverpool supporter, Virgil Van Dijk could struggle with the speed and technical ability of Japanese strikers.

To Reach Quarterfinal

This futures bet has a new layer this year, as teams will qualify from the group into the Round of 32 and must win two knockout games to get to the quarters.

It’s also hard to fully predict potential plans and matchups, as with so many spots in the knockout stages available, there could be unprecedented jockeying for favorable spots.

But, there are three underdog bets I like to make the quarterfinal, who are at long enough odds at FanDuel that winning one could cover you:

• Colombia (+240): The form of the Colombians, plus the firepower up front led by Bayern Munich’s Luis Diaz, is the main impetus for this pick. But I also think the Colombians can win their group over Portugal, which could setup a more favorable knockout draw.
• United States (+330): Homefield, baby. The US is going to be the team least impacted by the travel in this tournament, mainly because flying cross country is something athletes are kind of used to here. Mauricio Pochettino’s squad, led by Captain America himself in Christian Pulisic, is set up well to make a run.
• Morocco (+400): The defense is incredible. The experience in major tournaments is even better. And the Moroccans never leave the Eastern Time Zone during group play, meaning they should be unaffected by travel as the knockouts begin.

World Cup Underdog Betting FAQs