Predictions, Best Bets & Splits for Spurs vs Thunder (Game 5)

It’s down to a best-of-three in the Western Conference Finals, as the San Antonio Spurs are back in OKC to take on the Thunder in a crucial Game 5 matchup.

The winner gets a chance to wrap it up in Game 6, and a date with the New York Knicks in the NBA Finals.

Even after getting crushed in Game 4 and facing some troubling injury problems, the books still like the Thunder at home in the NBA odds.

Tip-off is scheduled tonight at 8:30pm ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, with NBC and Peacock broadcasting nationally.

Read below as I share the latest Spurs vs Thunder odds, as well as my prediction and best bets for Game 5.

Spurs vs Thunder Prediction

• Pick: Spurs +5.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

The Spurs have shown ridiculous resilience when counted out by the market.

They boast a stellar 4-1-0 record against the spread (ATS) as an underdog over their last five games, and have covered the number in 71.4% of their road games this postseason.

The Thunder are sturdy at home, going 3-1-0 ATS in their last four at the Paycom Center, but catching 5.5 points is a substantial cushion for a squad that owns the glass.

OKC is also not near full strength. All-star Jalen Williams is dealing with a hamstring injury, and sat out Game 4. He’s listed as questionable, while the Thunder’s other legit shotmaker outside of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell (calf) will miss a secong straight game.

The rebounding war is where the underdog thrives.

The Spurs grab 53.1% of available boards (third in the playoffs) compared to the Thunder’s middle-of-the-pack 49.8%.

By controlling the glass and leaning on their top-ranked defensive rating (101.0), the Spurs have the underlying metrics to disrupt the Thunder’s rhythm. I am backing the underdog to cover.

Spurs vs Thunder Best Bets

Total Pick: Over 216.5 points (-110 at DraftKings): The Over has cashed in eight of the Spurs’ last 10 games overall, including a 6-1-0 Over record in their away games during the playoffs. Similarly, the Over has hit in eight of the Thunder’s last 10 games on their home floor.

Pace of play is a massive factor here. The Spurs want to get up and down the court, ranking third in the playoffs in pace (98.2). While the Thunder prefer a slower halfcourt offense, they have the firepower to engage in a track meet, boasting the league’s second-best playoff offensive rating (117.6).

Best Prop Pick: Victor Wembanyama Over 25.5 points (-122 at DraftKings): The best available total for his points is set at 25.5, shaded slightly to the Over at -122. With the Spurs pushing the pace, their star big man is the ultimate beneficiary. I expect him to carry the offensive load in a hostile environment, making this the smartest player prop on the board.

Spurs vs Thunder Odds and Betting Splits

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Don’t forget to use theScore Bet promo code to bet on Spurs vs Thunder Game 5.

Oklahoma City enters Game 5 as a solid home favorite, getting -180 odds at Caesars, while the Spurs are set as +165 underdogs on the moneyline at bet365.

OKC is giving 5.5 big points on their home floor, and that offers -105 odds to win by six or more at DraftKings. The Spurs staying inside that cushion pays out at -110.

Looking at the total, and the line is sturdy at 216.5 points, with the Over cashing out at -108 odds at FanDuel.

Checking the NBA Public Betting Trends and Betting Splits, and the Spurs are the public’s overwhelming pick to win outright. While they are getting just 44% of the bets, the Spurs are getting 87% of the money, so there are some big bets going on there.

It’s not as tilted on the spread, though still favoring San Antonio, with 59% of the bets and 63% of the money on the Spurs staying inside that 5.5 point spread.

As for the total, the public is expecting the scoreboard bulbs to get a workout, with 77% of the public taking the Over at 216.5 points, dropping a whopping 88% of the money on topping that line.