Cardinals vs Twins Expert Picks, Predictions & Splits

• The Minnesota Twins are slight home favorites in Saturday’s matchup with the St Louis Cardinals
• St. Louis will start Matthew Liberatore, while the Twins counter with Connor Prielipp
• Read below for the my Cardinals vs Twins prediction, picks updated odds and betting splits

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After a wild shootout win to open their 3-game set, the Minnesota Twins look to win their interleague series Saturday when they host the St Louis Cardinals in the middle matchup of their series.

The books aren’t so sure how this one will play out, with the MLB odds showing this one mostly as a pick’em, with the Twins eventually settling in as a light home favorite.

First pitch goes this afternoon at 2:10pm ET from Target Field in Minnesota, with MLB TV providing the broadcast coverage.

Cardinals vs Twins Prediction

• Best Bet: Over 9.0 Runs (-110 at bet365)

St. Louis enters Target Field boasting a 37-30 overall statistical profile (6th overall in win percentage), compared to a struggling Minnesota squad sitting at 32-39 (22nd overall).

A significant reason for this disparity is run prevention. Minnesota surrenders a generous 5.17 runs per game (7th most in MLB). St. Louis limits damage better, giving up just 4.42 runs per game (27th most). St. Louis also averages 5.03 runs per game on the road, out-producing Minnesota’s 4.81 runs at home.

The MLB probable pitchers points toward another high-scoring affair.

St. Louis will hand the ball to Matthew Liberatore, who enters with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP.

Liberatore has pitched out of trouble often this season. Opponents batting .287 against him indicates opposing offenses consistently put men on base. While he generates 8.28 strikeouts per nine innings, his 4.59 FIP suggests his struggles are legitimate.

Minnesota will counter with Connor Prielipp. His 2-4 record and 5.15 ERA appear exploitable, but his underlying numbers point to positive regression.

Prielipp boasts a 3.42 FIP, a 1.33 WHIP, and holds opponents to a .242 average. If he can command the strike zone, his strikeout stuff gives him a distinct advantage.

Both offenses carry nearly identical OPS numbers (.717 for St. Louis, .712 for Minnesota). With both starters hovering around a 4.50 ERA, predicting the Over on the game total is my preferred approach.

STL Cardinals vs MIN Twins Expert Picks

Connor Prielipp Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-134 at FanDuel)
While Prielipp has allowed his fair share of runs, his swing-and-miss stuff remains elite with a 10.10 K/9 rate.

Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Total Bases (-102 at DraftKings)
Buxton has racked up 21 home runs and a .585 slugging percentage over 46 games. He averages 1.08 hits per game and faces Liberatore, who allows over 1.5 baserunners per inning.

Cardinals vs Twins Odds & Betting Splits

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Be sure to use the BetMGM promo code to bet on Cardinals vs Twins or any other MLB game.

The Twins have moved to an ever-so-slight home favorite (-110 at bet365) while the Cardinals are just -106 road dogs to win outright at FanDuel. Taking the Cardinals to win by at least two runs pays out at a nice +158, while getting two runs for the Twins will lose some juice, paying out at -181 at DraftKings.

The total is set at 9.0 runs, with the Over paying out slightly better at -104 odds.

Looking at the MLB public betting splits, the public has laid down big money on the spread, with a whopping 94% of the money on the Cards at -1.5, with just 66% of the bets.

It’s still significantly a pro St Louis crowd on the moneyline, as they command 71% of the money and 59% of the total bets to win.

The consensus is this one will cash the Over, with 91% of bets and 86% of the money expecting Cardinals vs Twins to surpass 9.0 runs.