NFL Week 9 ATS Parlay – The Best 3-Leg Teaser for Sunday
By Matt McEwan in NFL News
Published:
- Sportsbooks are extremely good at setting spreads for NFL games
- But sportsbooks allow bettors to select their own spread for every matchup (with better/worse odds depending on if you’re selling/buying points)
- I have teased the spread on three matchups in Week 9 and parlayed those ATS picks together for a potential plus-money payout
When it comes to betting against the spread in the NFL, sportsbooks are very good at setting lines that end up being close to the final margin. We’ve all suffered through what looked like an ATS win spoiled by a late, meaningless touchdown at some point – if you haven’t, then you probably haven’t been betting the spread for very long.
But sportsbooks allow you to choose your own lines – or alternate lines/spreads, if you prefer – for all games. This is a great opportunity for those who understand the key numbers in NFL spread betting, and how to manipulate them. That’s exactly what I’ve done in Week 9! I found three teams who I like to cover their respective spreads, due to some notable advantages in key predictive metrics, but I love them to cover the spreads I have selected (or teased).
The Best NFL ATS Parlay for Week 9
When buying points with spread betting, you obviously sacrifice some of the potential payout. But I have parlayed each of the three ATS picks above to bring myself back to a plus-money payout opportunity, which still presents what I believe is strong value versus the probability at which I believe these teams will cover their respective spreads.
The best odds I could find at the time of writing were +123 at BetMGM. I dive into why I like each of these three teams to cover below.
Parlay Leg #1: Detroit Lions -2.5
The first leg of my favorite ATS parlay for Week 9 is the Lions teased down to -2.5. Detroit is heading to Miami to take on the struggling Dolphins and are laying as many as 7 points.
I like Detroit to cover the standard spread, but really like them to cover after teasing away from 7 and getting through 3 as well. There are three key metrics where the Lions have notable advantages:
- Net Pass YPA: Lions +1.99 YPA
- Overall Success Rate Diff: Lions +10.5%
- Net Pressure Diff: Lions +14.9%
The Lions still possess a positive net pass yards per attempt in spite of their defense giving up more yards through the air than any other team in the league. That’s a testament to how well their offense attacks through the air. Miami, on the other hand, is negative in this statistic, as Malik Willis has been ok to but far from great when putting the ball in the air.
The overall success rate differential is the statistic giving me the most confidence in this one, though. I typically consider it notable when a team holds an advantage of 6%+ in this metric, but the Lions blow that away with a 10.5% advantage.
Parlay Leg #2: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5
The second leg of my parlay is the Chiefs -2.5, teased down from the standard -9.5. Admittedly, this is the leg with the weakest statistical backing, and the most feel to it. When looking at the six metrics I trust the most, the two teams split the advantages evenly 3-3.
But Kansas City is the only team who holds an advantage that crosses the ideal threshold: a +38.6% advantage in red zone touchdown gap. The threshold for holding a notable advantage in this metric is +15%, so the Chiefs hold a very significant advantage in terms of finishing successful drives in the endzone and keeping their opponents out when they’ve bent.
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The Chiefs also hold small advantages in net pass yards per attempt and net yards per play. But the Jets hold small advantages in overall success rate differential, net pressure differential, and explosive play differential. But all of those advantages are well below the ideal thresholds for being significant.
The feel comes into play here because I believe the Chiefs, who are returning home after two straight bad losses on the road, are going to come out swinging in front of their home crowd. They need this win and it’s a great “get right” opportunity against a middling Jets team.
Parlay Leg #3: San Francisco 49ers -2.5
The final leg of my Week 9 ATS parlay is the 49ers -2.5. The standard spread has the 49ers laying 10 points as they host the Raiders. This is the spread I have teased the most, taking it away from 10, and through both 7 and 3.
San Francisco holds advantages in all six of the metrics I trust, and they hold significant advantages in five of them:
- Net Pass YPA: +2.38 YPA
- Overall Success Rate Diff: +10.9%
- Net Yards Per Play: +2.40 Net YPP edge
- Red Zone TD Gap: +56.0%
- Explosive Play Diff: +11.7%
I believe the most telling advantages are the +2.40 net yards per play edge, overall success rate differential (ideal threshold is greater than 6%), and red zone touchdown gap (15%+ is ideal threshold). San Francisco is the far superior team on both sides of the ball, and they should have no trouble keeping this game above a field goal margin with their knack for consistently getting six points in the red zone, and holding their opponents out of the endzone.
The 49ers have had an extra week to think about their first loss of the season, which came in Week 7 against the Falcons, and I believe will come out strong against a weaker Raiders team.
Editor-in-Chief; Sports Betting Expert
With nearly a decade working in the industry, Matt is a seasoned sports betting veteran. He got his start with SBD in 2016 and worked his way up the ladder to become the Editor-in-Chief. Along the way he has done everything from reviewing sportsbooks to creating proprietary sports betting tools.
