Final Oregon vs Ohio State Prediction, Updated Odds & Big Ten Picks
By Chris Amberley in College Football
Published:
- Oregon and Ohio State clash in one of the biggest games on today’s college football slate
- Quarterback changes and Ohio State’s home defensive numbers shape this Big Ten matchup
- Read below for my final Oregon vs Ohio State prediction, updated odds and Big Ten picks
Oregon visits Ohio Stadium today for a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS. Ohio State enters 6-2 overall and 4-1 in Big Ten play, while Oregon sits 5-3 and 3-2 in the conference.
The Buckeyes are coming off a 30-18 loss to USC, where Luke Fahey threw for 260 yards and a touchdown in his first start. Ryan Day has confirmed Fahey will start again this afternoon. Oregon beat Northwestern 34-26 behind 336 passing yards and three touchdowns from Dylan Raiola.
Ohio State leads the all-time series 10-2, but Oregon has won two of the last three meetings. Here is my final Oregon vs Ohio State prediction, the updated odds and my Big Ten picks.
Final Oregon vs Ohio State Prediction
I’m backing the Buckeyes to win at home in this clash of National Championship odds contenders, while expecting enough offense to clear the total. My prediction is Ohio State 31, Oregon 17, with Jeremiah Smith and Bo Jackson doing enough damage to keep the Ducks chasing in the second half.
Updated Oregon vs Ohio State Odds
Odds as of Friday, Nov. 6, at BetMGM. Claim the BetMGM promo code to get in on the action today.
Ohio State’s -294 moneyline in the college football odds implies about a 74.6% win probability, while Oregon at +240 implies roughly 29.4%. The Over is the cheaper side of the total, so compare prices across the top College Football betting apps before kickoff.
Oregon vs Ohio State Big Ten Picks
Big Ten Pick #1: Ohio State Moneyline vs Oregon
Ohio State has been exceptionally difficult to beat at home. Since 2023, Ohio State is 25-1 at home while allowing 9 points and 215.7 yards per game, and it has held 26 straight home opponents under 20 points. Oregon’s 33 points per game also looks less imposing once you remove an 84-0 win over Portland State.
Against FBS opponents, Oregon averages 26 points and 140.4 rushing yards per game with a -1 turnover differential. Ohio State ranks 11th nationally in total defense and outgains opponents by 201.3 yards per game.
Raiola’s splits show how much this hinges on him. In four wins, he has completed 74.1% of his passes at 9.5 yards per attempt with nine touchdowns and no interceptions. In two losses, those numbers fall to 55%, 4.8 yards per attempt, no touchdowns and two picks.
Oregon won’t be intimidated. The Ducks are 13-2 in conference road games since 2023, and five of their games have been decided by eight points or fewer. Still, I trust this home defense to make Raiola uncomfortable often enough for the Buckeyes to win outright.
Big Ten Pick #2: Ducks vs Buckeyes Over 45.5
My Oregon vs Ohio State total pick comes down to the Buckeyes’ ability to create big plays. Ohio State averages 474.8 yards per game and has the best receiver on the field in Heisman Trophy odds favorite Jeremiah Smith, who has 62 catches for 1,067 yards and 13 touchdowns through eight games.
Smith has a 10-game streak of at least 50 receiving yards, and Jackson has topped 50 rushing yards in 15 straight games after running for 121 against USC. Fahey has been sharp on first down, going 15-of-21 for 249 yards and 11.9 yards per attempt this season.
Oregon can hold up its end through the air. Evan Stewart has at least 50 receiving yards in all six of his 2026 games, and Dakorien Moore just posted seven catches for 128 yards and two scores. Even a high-teens output from the Ducks keeps this total in play.
Fahey’s third-down numbers are the concern, as he is 4-of-12 for 73 yards with an interception on those snaps. If the Buckeyes stay ahead of the chains and lean on Smith and Jackson early, though, a 31-17 type of game clears this number.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
