March Madness Sweet 16 & Elite 8 Betting Trends

By the time the Sweet 16 arrives, the NCAA Tournament is technically 76% complete, as 48 of 63 games are in the books. But no matter which bracket contest you enter, every scoring system values the later rounds more, and you won’t be winning anything unless you nail your picks for the Sweet 16, Elite 8, and beyond.

March Madness Sweet 16 Betting and Elite Eight Betting Trends

Since past performance is the best indicator of future outcomes, recent trends can help you get a leg up. This page lists the most-notable betting trends for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. Of course, just because a trend has existed thus far does not guarantee it will continue. Make sure you do your own research before wagering your hard-earned money.

*Unless otherwise indicated, all the trends below date back to the 1985 tournament, when the field was expanded to 64 teams.

1. A #1 Seed Will Fall (Probably)

Only twice in the last 40 tournament have all four #1 seeds reached the Final Four (2008 and 2025).

In fact, only five tournaments witnessed three #1 seeds advance to the Final Four. That means 35 of 40 Final Fours featured two or fewer #1 seeds. Don’t hesitate to knock off some chalk when you get to the third and fourth rounds.

2. #1 Seeds Have Been Dominating the Sweet 16

Add the following caveat to the trend above: dating back to 2014, #1 seeds have won 25 of their last 31 games in the Sweet 16. They don’t all get there but, when they do, they’re winning at an 80% clip.

The Elite 8 has not been so kind, however …

3. #1 Seeds Are Only So-So in the Elite 8 Recently

Only 18 #1 seeds, in total, have made the Final Four since 2012, and #1 seeds are a combined 18-12 in the Elite 8 in that span.

That number includes a 4-0 mark in 2025, which is doing some heavy lifting.

4. At Least One #1 Seed Will Reach the Final Four

Crossing off all the #1 seeds in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 would be almost as unwise as moving them all through to the final weekend. Only three Final Fours (2006, 2011, 2023) have featured zero #1 seeds.

5.  #12 Seeds Come Back to Reality in the Sweet 16

As detailed in First-Round Trends You Need to Know, #12 seeds outperform expectations in the first two rounds. That comes to an abrupt halt in the Sweet 16, where #12 seeds are 2-20 overall and 0-20 when they face a #1 seed.

#12 seeds are 2-20 [in the Sweet 16] overall, and 0-20 when they face a #1 seed.

The two wins came courtesy 2002 Missouri (which knocked off #5 Miami and #4 Ohio State before getting a lucky draw against #8 UCLA in the Sweet 16) and 2021 Oregon State (which beat #5 Tennessee, #4 OK State, and then also faced a #8 seed – Loyola-Chicago – in the Sweet 16).

6.  #7-#11 Seeds are Live Dogs

The Cinderella story for one team in the #7 to #11 range is likely to continue past the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. Going back to 2011, at least one team in that range has reached the Final Four every year, save 2012, 2019 and 2025.

Even in the extremely chalky 2025 tournament, the one high seed to squeak into the second weekend — No. 10 Arkansas — forced overtime in its Sweet 16 loss against No. 3 Texas Tech.

7. #2 Seeds Dominate #3 Seeds in the Sweet 16

When the chalk holds, the Sweet 16 matchups pit #2s versus #3s in what ought to be competitive games. Yet the #2s have owned the head-to-head, going 34-19 all-time.

There was only one such matchup in the Sweet 16 in 2025, as Tennessee dominated SEC rival Kentucky 78-65 in their Sweet 16 matchup.

8. #1 seeds hold a slight edge versus #2 Seeds in the Elite 8

Before the #1 seeds dominated the 2025 tournament, #2s were nipping at their heels.

The 1s won all three 1 vs. 2 matchups that year, stretching their all-time mark against 2s to 28-24. That mark was actually even prior to 2024, but #1 seeds have won the last four meetings between the two.

9. No #6 Seed Has Reached the Final Four since 1992

Even though several #7 and #8 seeds have made the third weekend since 1992 (three and four, respectively), the ’92 Blue Devils were the last #6 seed to do so.

Three #6 seeds have advanced to the Elite Eight since 2020, all coming up short. Creighton did come within a point of breaking the streak, however, in 2023, losing 57-56 against No. 5 San Diego State.

10. Only Two #9 Seeds Have Reached the Final Four

Led by an NBA-caliber backcourt of Fred Van Vleet and Ron Baker, the 2013 Wichita State Shockers were the first #9 seed to make the last quartet since the 1985 expansion to 64 teams.

Florida Atlantic, which had the good fortune of facing Fairleigh Dickinson in the second round instead of #1 Purdue, became the second #9 seed to reach the Final Four in 2023.

Part of the issue is missed opportunities in the earlier rounds; as detailed in the First-Round Trends You Need to Know, #9 seeds have ironically fared much worse than #8 seeds after the Round of 64. That’s ironic because the #8-vs-#9 matchups in the first round are basically toss-ups. (The Selection Committee doesn’t actually differentiate between #8 and #9 seeds; they are all lumped together and matchups are determined in part by location.)

11. There is no dominant program year over year

Blue Bloods are called what they are for a reason, they win. That’s why they’re all over the list of most Final Four appearances, led by North Carolina (21). The Heels are followed by UCLA (19), Duke (18), Kentucky (17), Kansas (15), Ohio State (10) and Michigan State (10).

But in the Transfer Portal/NIL era, there is plenty of parity in March Madness. In the past five years, 17 schools have advanced to the Final Four, and just three of those (UConn, Duke and Houston) have gone more than once.

No team has been to three Final Fours in that time.

12. Live betting betting trends for Sweet 16 & Elite Eight

The second weekend of March Madness is a great time for live betting, as you can finally start to focus on a single game.

Our March Madness live betting guide covers the basics and strategies for live betting on March Madness, but here’s a stat to consider before thinking you’ve out-smarted the sportsbooks: Teams that are leading at halftime have covered in the second half at a 58% clip in recent years.

And slow down on picking a favorite to turn it around, as they cover just 37% of the time after trailing at the half.

Sweet 16 & Elite 8 Trends FAQs

With More Knowledge Comes a Greater ROI

If you’re an aspiring sharp bettor, you should be doing anything and everything you can to gain an edge on your bookmakers.

Start with our strategy guides, where we cover everything from the 7 perennial attributes of March Madness winners to more complex, mathematically-oriented strategies like the Poisson distribution method.