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Mississippi State vs Auburn Odds, Predictions & Player Props (Jan. 14)

Chris Amberley

By Chris Amberley in College Basketball

Published:


Chad Baker-Mazara drives to the hoop versus Missouri.
Jan 4, 2025; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Auburn Tigers guard Chad Baker-Mazara (10) goes for a shot against Missouri Tigers guard Annor Boateng (6) during the second half at Auburn Arena. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-Imagn Images
  • The #1 Auburn Tigers are a 7.5-point favorite over the #15 Mississippi State Bulldogs tonight
  • Tigers star Johni Broome is out indefinitely (ankle)
  • Check out the Mississippi State vs Auburn odds, predictions and player props, below

One of the biggest games on Tuesday’s college basketball slate features #15 Mississippi State (14-2, 2-1 SEC) versus #1 Auburn (15-1, 3-0 SEC). The Tigers are the top team in the nation for just the second time in program history, surpassing Tennessee after the Vols first loss last week. Auburn has reeled off eight straight victories, and oddsmakers are expecting another win tonight per the college basketball odds. Tipoff for this SEC showdown is scheduled for 7pm ET from Neville Arena, in Auburn, AL, with the SEC Network providing the broadcast coverage.

Mississippi State vs Auburn Odds

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Mississippi State Bulldogs +7.5 (-110) +270 O 148.5 (-110)
Auburn Tigers -7.5 (-110) -340 U 148.5 (-110)

Auburn is currently a 7.5-point favorite, in a contest with a total of 148.5. The total is down 3 points from its opener, while the spread has stood pat. The early spread betting favors the Bulldogs, as they’re drawing 63% of the tickets and 62% of the handle. The primary reason for fading the Tigers likely has something to do with their injury report, as they’ll be without their top player. 

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Mississippi State vs Auburn Prediction

  • Mississippi State +7.5 (-110)

Johni Broome left Saturday’s game versus South Carolina with an ankle injury after stepping on a teammate’s foot. The injury initially appeared to be significant, but an MRI later revealed just a non-surgical sprain.

The 6-foot-10 senior is out indefinitely, but it’s reportedly not expected to be a long term absence. Broome began the weekend as the favorite in the Wooden Award odds, but was later passed by Duke’s Cooper Flagg.

Broome’s injury is a concern at both ends of the floor. He was averaging 18 points and 11 boards per game, as well as 3 blocks. The future NBA’er had 10 double-doubles already, with multiple 20+ point, 16+ rebound performances.

Without him, Bruce Pearl will need more production from big men Dylan Caldwell and Chaney Johnson, as well as second leading scorer Chad Baker-Mazara.

The timing for Broome’s injury is awful, as a strong Mississippi State team is coming to town. The Bulldogs have risen up versus top competition this season. They’re 6-1 straight up versus top-75 teams, covering five times.

They rank 16th in offensive efficiency per Kenpom, with four players averaging 10 points per outing, led by guard Josh Hubbard (17 ppg).

Mississippi State is no slouch defensively either. They rank 39th in defensive efficiency, and have held opponents to under 47% shooting from the field.

The Tigers lean heavily on easy looks created by Broome, so without him Pearl might try to speed up the pace to fluster the Bulldogs and generate turnovers. The problem is, Mississippi State has given the ball away at the nation’s second lowest rate, and operates much more efficiently in the half court.

Look for the Bulldogs to slow down the pace, and grind out a cover in a lower than projected scoring affair.

Mississippi State vs Auburn Player Props

  • Chad Baker-Mazara Over 14.5 Points (-125)

Switching to the player props market now, where Baker-Mazara is our target. If Auburn is going to remain a top contender in the March Madness odds without Broome, they’ll need more scoring from Baker-Mazara.

The senior is already averaging a career-high 12.7 points per game, on 52% shooting. He’s taking more shots than ever per outing (7.3), and that was with Broome in the lineup. Baker-Mazara is a career 40% shooter from 3, and saw a major usage bump when Broome went down earlier versus Georgia State.

That night he took a season-high 11 shots, and got to the line 11 times. He made every one of those free throws, and has been consistent all year from the charity stripe, making 93.7% of his freebies.

We expect this game to be a tightly contested affair, meaning Baker-Mazara will need to supply his share of offense to keep the Tigers afloat.

Chris Amberley
Chris Amberley

Sports Writer

As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.

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