Texas vs Missouri Prediction, Spread & SEC Best Bets (Nov. 7)
By Chris Amberley in College Football
Published:
- Texas faces a Missouri offense averaging more than 400 yards per game
- The Longhorns allow fewer yards, but Missouri holds the edge in turnovers
- Get our Texas vs Missouri prediction, the spread and our best bet for Nov. 7
Texas and Missouri meet today in Columbia. Both teams score more than 30 points per game, but the defensive numbers and recent SEC results favor the Longhorns.
Missouri has the bigger offensive yardage average and a +8 turnover margin, which makes the Tigers a legitimate threat at home. Texas counters with a defense that has held five SEC opponents to season-low yards-per-play figures.
Below is our Texas vs Missouri prediction, followed by the latest odds and spread on Kalshi and the matchup stats behind this SEC best bet.
Texas vs Missouri Prediction & SEC Best Bets
- Pick: Texas moneyline (57¢ on Kalshi)
My Texas vs Missouri prediction backs the Longhorns at the current price. They’re still a National Championship odds contender, allowing just 17.1 points and 273.1 yards per game, while Missouri allows 18.4 points and 325.1 yards.
Texas has also recorded 24 defensive sacks, giving it a second way to disrupt a Missouri offense that produces through both the run and the pass.
The conference results strengthen the case beyond those season averages. Texas has held five SEC opponents to season-low yards-per-play figures, a strong sign the Longhorns can limit Missouri’s efficiency on Saturday.
Missouri deserves respect. The Tigers average 424.6 yards per game, and their +8 turnover margin, compared with Texas’ −3, is the biggest risk to this prediction. Extra possessions could keep the Tigers in it.
Still, Missouri’s yardage edge doesn’t erase Texas’ advantage in points and yards allowed, or its results against SEC offenses. That defensive advantage is why I favor Texas on the moneyline in the college football odds. Before making any wager on this game, scan the prediction market apps to find the best price.
Texas vs Missouri Spread
As of 12:05 p.m. ET Friday, Nov. 6. Compare sportsbook prices with our College Football betting apps.
Texas’ 57¢ Yes buy price means the Longhorns need to win at least 57% of the time for the moneyline to break even before fees. Missouri sits at 44¢ on the other side.
On the spread, Texas wins by over 2.5 points is priced at 52¢ Yes, while Over 43.5 total points sits at 48¢. Both markets are listed here for context rather than as additional plays.
Texas vs Missouri Matchup Stats
Both offenses average more than 30 points per game, so the separation in this matchup comes from the defensive and turnover numbers.
Missouri’s ground game runs through Jamal Roberts, who has 1,005 rushing yards, averages 125.6 per game and has nine rushing touchdowns. Quarterback Austin Simmons has thrown for 1,952 yards, 16 touchdowns and two interceptions.
Cayden Lee has 53 catches for 756 yards and five touchdowns, while Donovan Olugbode has 40 catches for 584 yards and seven scores. That balance puts a premium on Texas’ ability to disrupt plays and limit per-play production.
Texas averages 358.4 yards and 30.8 points per game. The Longhorns have scored on 93.3% of their red-zone trips and found the end zone on 20 of 30, a 66.7% touchdown rate.
Missouri holds the edge in yardage and turnovers, but Texas allows fewer points and yards. If the Longhorns limit Missouri’s per-play production the way they have against SEC opponents, that defensive edge should matter more than the Tigers’ yardage totals.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
