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Odds to Win 2019 Tour Championship Without FedEx Cup Starting Strokes

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

Updated Mar 23, 2020 · 1:53 PM PDT

Brooks Koepka eyeing up a shot
Brooks Koepka starts his season this week. Photo from @GolfDigest (Twitter)
  • The Tour Championship tees off Thursday, August 22nd
  • If pre-determined scores were thrown out the window, who will shoot lowest 72-hole score?
  • We’ve narrowed down the golfers with the best chance of emerging victorious

The culmination of the PGA Tour season for the FedEx Cup and the $15 million dollar prize begins Thursday at the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club just outside downtown Atlanta.

This is the first year of the new FedEx Cup finale format which sees Justin Thomas starting the tournament in the lead by two strokes over Patrick Cantlay, with every golfer’s score staggered based on where they’re ranked.

Sportsbooks are offering odds, however, on who would win the tournament if the opening pre-determined scores weren’t a factor at all, which adds a different wrinkle to wagering on the event this week.

2019 Tour Championship Odds

Who Will Win the 2019 Tour Championship? (Lowest 72-hole Score) Odds at Sportsbook 1 Odds at Sportsbook 2
Rory McIlroy +800 +700
Justin Thomas +900 +800
Brooks Koepka +900 +800
Jon Rahm +1000 +1100
Patrick Cantlay +1200 +1200
Dustin Johnson +1400 +1200
Hideki Matsuyama +1600 +1800
Justin Rose +2000 +1600
Webb Simpson +2000 +1800
Adam Scott +2000 +2000

*Odds as of 08/21/19

Brooks Koepka a Man on a Mission at Tour Championship

You never fully know what you’re going to get from Brooks Koepka – the prodigious behemoth who annihilates major championship courses seemingly at ease – or the golfer that’s totally disinterested and would rather be anywhere else but on the course.

He’s shown an impeccable knack for taking slights – perceived or otherwise – and turning them into a massive chip on his shoulder to silence the doubters or haters. He’s won three times already this year (PGA Championship, WGC-FedEx St. Jude, CJ Cup), and this tournament would be a great notch on his mantle. He’s fourth in scoring average this year, so I’d be betting the farm on the motivated Koepka showing up this week.

Jon Rahm Playing Dynamite Golf

The hottest golfer on the planet is Jon Rahm, and it would be no surprise to see him shoot the lowest 72 hole score, in particular because he starts six strokes back in the tournament – a perfect spot to utilize his signature aggressive style of play.

Jon Rahm’s Last 7 Tournaments

Tournament Result
BMW Championship T-5th
The Northern Trust T-3rd
WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational 7th
The Open Championship T-11th
Irish Open WIN
Andalucia Masters T-2nd
US Open T-3rd

Unsurprisingly he’s also sixth in scoring average on tour, and with his last seven amazing tournaments buoying him, a wager on Rahm for low 72-hole score is a no brainer.

Last 5 Tour Championship Winners

Year Winner
2018 Tiger Woods
2017 Xander Schauffele
2016 Rory McIlroy
2015 Jordan Spieth
2014 Billy Horschel

2019 Tour Championship Best Value Picks

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+1200): First in scoring average this season, Cantlay also is second heading into the FedEx Cup Finale so he’ll immediately find himself in the thick of things. In last ten stroke play events, only once has he finished outside the top-21. Also had a runner-up finish last week at BMW Championship.
  2. Justin Rose (+2000): Defending FedEx Cup champion who’s ninth in scoring average. Five top-20 finishes in last six events. Top 10’s in last six trips to East Lake, with showings of T-4th, T-10th, T-2nd, T-4th, 6th, 2nd.
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