2020 BMW Championship Round 4 Odds and Betting Preview

• Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama co-lead by two strokes after three rounds of the BMW Championship
• A host of big name players are right behind them like Adam Scott, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm
• See the updated live odds at Olympia Fields heading into Sunday’s final round

After three rounds of the BMW Championshp, Olympia Fields Country Club has proven to be an absolute brute, with only two players under par – Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama. They co-lead entering Sunday’s final round with a two-stroke edge over Adam Scott, Joaquin Niemann and Mackenzie Hughes.

Unsurprisingly, after his epic 11-stroke romp at last week’s The Northern Trust, DJ entered this week as the favorite to take the title, with Matsuyama sporting +3400 odds.

The leaderboard is jam packed with 20 players within five shots of the lead, so it’s anybody’s game entering the final round, with only the top-30 players on the FedEx Cup points list gaining entry into next week’s season finale at the Tour Championship.

Live BMW Championship Odds

Odds taken August 29

Dustin Johnson Continuing His Tear

Entering the week as the +700 favorite, Dustin Johnson has not disappointed, playing steady and strong golf to find himself tied at the top of the board with Matsuyama. Through three rounds, DJ is second in strokes gained approaching the green and sixth tee-to-green, making up more than six shots on the field in that category.

Dustin Johnson leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained: strutting.

Guy walks with POWER.

— Dan Rapaport (@Daniel_Rapaport) August 29, 2020

He was the pre-tournament favorite for a reason and despite the low odds we were still convinced he’d have a great chance at the BMW, so it would be a major shock if he wasn’t at least in the mix down the stretch Sunday. Working in his favor is that he avoids big numbers — he doesn’t have anything worse than a bogey all week.

Though there are a host of big name talents behind him, sticking with DJ would still be the prudent move in this one.

Hideki Matsuyama Looking For First PGA Tour Win In Three Years

This week, Hideki Matsuyama has been a machine tee-to-green, where he leads the field in that stat, gaining nearly eight strokes on the field. He’s also first in strokes gained around the green, which dovetails with his normal play during the campaign (12th this season).

Hideki Matsuyama wasted no time getting started in Round 3. 🦅

Just like that he leads by 1 @BMWChamps.#QuickHits pic.twitter.com/oYmNguwjmA

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 29, 2020

The glaring number that may not stand up during immense pressure in the final round is his putting. Long a bugaboo for the Japanese sensation, he’s been a very respectable 30th in SG: putting this week. However, he’s been awful during the year, ranking 189th. It is for that reason that I can’t go all-in on him over DJ in the final round tomorrow.

Best Live Value Picks at BMW Championship

1. Rory McIlroy (+900): We were high on the Ulsterman entering the week to break out of his funk, so why deviate now? Knows how to win in crunch time, tying Dustin Johnson for most FedEx Cup playoff event wins ever (five). Second in birdies and SG: off-the-tee this week.
2. Kevin Kisner (+2700): Much like McIlroy, we loved his value coming into the week where he started at +4200 odds to win outright. T-3rd and T-4th in last two events preceding this one. Can get hot with the putter, as he ranks tenth this week and 15th this season on the greens. Tied with Rory, three strokes back.
3. Patrick Cantlay (+6500): Though he tumbled down the board Saturday with a 5-over, 75, he co-led after two rounds so he’s been playing some strong golf. Just five behind, he’s third in putts per green in regulation, fifth in SG: off-the-tee and around the green this week. Knows how to make up serious ground in the final round, shooting a 64 in last year’s Memorial to steal the title.