2022 Valero Texas Open Sleepers and Longshot Picks
- The 2022 Valero Texas Open from TPC San Antonio begins on Thursday (March 31st)
- Bryson DeChambeau offers tremendous value in the outright market at +2800
- Read below for our favorite sleepers and longshots in the outright, T10 and T20 markets
This week’s Valero Texas Open offers golfers one final chance to qualify for Augusta National. Aside from a handful of players in the field who have already booked their ticket in the Masters odds next week, the only way anyone else is making it into golf’s most prestigious tournament is by winning this week at TPC San Antonio.
The action tees off on Thursday (March 31st) at a course that is one of the most demanding ball striking tests on Tour. TPC San Antonio is incredibly long and features extremely firm greens, which can be nearly impossible to hold if the wind is howling.
Unlike most courses however, the rough is far from penal. The birdie rate from the rough is actually higher than the fairway over the past five years, freeing us up to target big hitting bombers who maybe aren’t the most accurate players on Tour.
2022 Valero Texas Open Odds
| Golfer | Odds to Win | Top-10 Odds | Top-20 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bryson DeChambeau | +2800 | +330 | +160 |
| Jhonatthan Vegas | +5500 | +550 | +250 |
| Austin Smotherman | +13000 | +900 | +450 |
| Beau Hossler | +14000 | +1000 | +500 |
Odds as of March 28th at DraftKings
Our sleepers and longshots card starts with the biggest hitter of them all Bryson DeChambeau, who is wildly mispriced outright winner Valero Texas Open odds.
DeChambeau Gets Back on Track
Bryson DeChambeau has been dealing with hand and hip injuries, and hadn’t played competitively in nearly two months before returning last week at the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play. He understandably started out slow, but his game improved steadily over his round robin matches and most importantly he showed no signs of injury.
Finally swinging my driver again. Time to push for the Masters. pic.twitter.com/6oiiNxqObj
— Bryson DeChambeau (@b_dechambeau) March 22, 2022
Now he gets one final tune-up event before the Masters, at a course that is tailor made for his strengths. DeChambeau will be able to apply the same bomb and gouge strategy that won him the 2020 U.S. Open. If his putter is on, like it was last week, he could win this tournament going away.
DeChambeau Strokes Gained Ranks – Last 24 Rounds
| BS | OTT | DR DIST | PAR 5 | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
He ranks first in the field in strokes gained off the tee and driving distance over the past 24 rounds, as well as fourth in birdie looks inside 15-feet, second in Par 5 scoring and seventh in putting.
He’s currently priced at +2000 to win at Augusta, yet +2800 to take home the title this week against a much weaker field. Seems like great value to me.
Pick: Bryson DeChambeau to Win (+2800)
Vegas Baby, Vegas
Our card continues with another big hitter in Jhonattan Vegas at +5500. The three-time PGA Tour winner is in excellent form and has strong Texas roots. Vegas played golf at the University of Texas and has been a fixture at this event for the past seven years.
Five birdies, one eagle and a bogey has @JhonattanVegas in the lead at -6 @ValsparChamp pic.twitter.com/bJTZuEoevU
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 17, 2022
He’s fresh off a fourth place finish last week at Corales, and ranks second behind only DeChambeau in driving distance. He’s also top-six in the field in ball striking and Par 5 scoring over the past 24 rounds. Last week, he gained over 11 total strokes in Punta Cana, and the prior week he gained five strokes on approach at the Valspar.
Top 20 Value Picks
- Austin Smotherman (+450): Our big hitting theme continues with Smotherman. The rookie missed the cut last week in Punta Cana, but sets up perfectly for this track. He ranks top-20 in the field in ball striking, strokes gained off the tee, driving distance, Par 5 scoring and birdie looks inside 15 feet over the past 24 rounds. He’s never played here as a PGA Tour member, but did finish fourth at the Korn Ferry Tour event at TPC San Antonio back in 2020.
- Beau Hossler (+500): While not as big of a hitter as our previous selections, Hossler still averages nearly 310 off the tee. His biggest issue is finding the fairway with his driver, but that weakness is mitigated at this track. The University of Texas product has three top-20 results in his past six starts, and is a great value in the T20 market at +500.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
