First Round Leader Odds and Picks at 2021 BMW Championship
- The FedEx Cup Playoffs continue with the BMW Championship from Owings Mills, MD on Thursday, August 26th
- Jon Rahm is the +1200 favorite over Xander Schauffele to lead after the first round
- See the best bets and odds to grab the first-round lead in the article below
The second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs tees off at the BMW Championship from Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland. The field has been cut from the top-125 to the best 70, with only the top-30 following completion of play making the playoff finale at the Tour Championship.
This course will host a PGA Tour event for the first time, so it is wide open since there’s no course history. Jon Rahm, who held the lead on the back nine Monday at the Northern Trust, is the heavy favorite to lift the trophy come Sunday evening. He’s followed by Xander Schauffele, who won gold earlier in the month at the Olympics.
In this article, we’ll explore which players have the best chance of being the leader after day one, along with what players are playing well on Thursday’s this season.
BMW Championship 2021 First Round Leader Odds
| Golfer | Odds | Tee Time |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | +1200 | 11:21am |
| Xander Schauffele | +2200 | 10:57am |
| Jordan Spieth | +2500 | 1:31pm |
| Justin Thomas | +2500 | 1:43pm |
| Collin Morikawa | +2500 | 1:43pm |
| Dustin Johnson | +2800 | 10:28am |
| Louis Oosthuizen | +2800 | 11:09am |
| Scottie Scheffler | +3000 | 10:28am |
| Brooks Koepka | +3000 | 10:57am |
| Tony Finau | +3000 | 11:21am |
| Cameron Smith | +3000 | 11:21am |
| Paul Casey | +3000 | 12:26pm |
| Patrick Cantlay | +3000 | 1:43pm |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +3500 | 1:31pm |
| Rory McIlroy | +3500 | 1:55pm |
Odds as of August 24th at DraftKings
The forecast is expected to be mainly sunny throughout the day with a risk of a thunderstorm around 3pm with temperatures in the mid to high 80’s. There won’t be much wind at all for ideal scoring conditions, with gusts ranging from 5MPH in the morning and hitting as high as 10MPH in the afternoon.
A benefit for those teeing it up in the morning is the exact same as it is every week – less bumpy greens with fewer players chewing them up.
Cameron Smith Playing Stellar Golf
In his last three tournaments, Cameron Smith has been playing great golf, finishing T-10 at the Olympics, T-5 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational and then last week was runner-up in a playoff at the Northern Trust.
That T-5 doesn’t underscore how close Smith was to winning, as he was tied on the 72nd hole before a costly aggressive decision led to a double bogey.
He’s also first in scoring average on Thursday’s for the campaign, posting a score of 69 or better in four of his last five opening rounds.
2020-21 PGA Tour First Round Scoring Average Leaders
| Golfer | Average Score | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Cameron Smith | 69.00 | +3000 |
| 2. Cameron Tringale | 69.08 | +5000 |
| 3. Jason Kokrak | 69.22 | +5500 |
| 4. Scottie Scheffler | 69.32 | +3000 |
| 5. Brian Harman | 69.38 | +6000 |
| 7. Jon Rahm | 69.44 | +1200 |
| 8. Russell Henley | 69.52 | +5500 |
| 10. Louis Oosthuizen | 69.65 | +2800 |
| T-11. Joaquin Niemann | 69.67 | +4000 |
| T-11. Chris Kirk | 69.67 | +8000 |
In his last two tournaments, the Aussie has gained nearly 15 shots on the field tee-to-green, and over ten strokes on the greens. In his last twelve rounds, he’s also second in total strokes gained.
- Pick: Cameron Smith (+3000)
Cantlay in Charge
Very quietly, Patrick Cantlay has racked up top-25 finishes in six of his last seven starts, including a victory at the Memorial. He, like Smith, is very solid on Thursday’s, as he ranks 17th in first round scoring.
Subsequently, in his last 24 rounds, Cantlay has been outstanding in several key ‘strokes gained’ categories.
Cantlay’s Strokes Gained Stats In Last 24 Rounds
| Tee-To-Green | Off-The-Tee | Ball Striking | Total | Around-The-Green | Short Game | Approach | Putting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 29 |
For the season, Cantlay has been dynamite, ranking third in SG: tee-to-green and fourth in total strokes gained.
Though it was at different courses, the silent assassin has enjoyed success at this event, finishing runner-up in 2019, T-9 in 2017 and T-12 last year.
- Pick: Patrick Cantlay (+3000)
Branden Grace an Intriguing Long Shot
Branden Grace has not been a model of consistency in his last six starts, where he’s missed two cuts (including last week) and had a tie for 30th. However, the other three tournaments he’s been very good, including a runner-up at the Wyndham Championship two weeks ago.
He’s also had a fourth place finish at the Memorial and a T-7 at the US Open during that span. The mixed bag has still resulted in him posting some solid strokes gained numbers.
Grace’s Strokes Gained Stats In Last 24 Rounds
| Short Game | Around-The-Green | Putting | Total | Approach | Tee-To-Green |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 30 | 36 |
In nine of his last ten championships, Grace has been money with the flat stick, gained shots on his competitors. He also has the longest active streak without a three-putt in a remarkable 210 holes.
His inconsistent play is the reason that his odds are as long as they are to take the first round lead, but if you catch him on the upswing, he could yield a strong return.
- Pick: Branden Grace (+6500)
Michael "Hound Dog" Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 16 years, where he's been featured on Sportscentre, That's Hockey, That's Hockey 2Nite, The Masters preview shows, and several more.
