2023 Belmont Stakes Odds & Expert Picks

• Saturday’s Belmont Stakes marks the 50th Anniversary of Secretariat’s historic 31-length victory
• Would-be Kentucky Derby favorite Forte, and post-time chalk Angel of Empire are among this year’s top contenders
• Where can we find betting value in the final jewel of this year’s Triple Crown?

In 1973 Secretariat’s 31-length romp in the Belmont Stakes made him the first Triple Crown winner in a quarter century. It is widely regarded as the greatest horse race ever run. This year’s Test of the Champion has no Triple Crown on the line but does feature several intriguing contenders. Read on for an analysis of the 2023 Belmont Stakes.

Forte was slated to be the Kentucky Derby favorite but was scratched the morning of the race with a minor injury. Angel of Empire inherited the status as the favorite and ran a solid third. Tapit Trice was the second choice in Louisville, finished seventh, and has always been regarded as well-suited for the mile-and-a-half Belmont. Preakness winner, National Treasure is running, as are several other long shots worthy of consideration. The way Belmont Stakes’ odds have shifted recently is sort of interesting.

Fire up your favorite horse racing betting sites, and get out the calendar, you want to make sure you bet on the biggest horse races. Let’s look carefully at this year’s Belmont Stakes contenders.

Current Odds to Win Belmont Stakes

For the first time, FOX will broadcast the Belmont Stakes. Post time Saturday is scheduled for 6:50pm EST. Temperatures are expected to be in the high 70s with only a minor chance of rain.

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The Belmont Stakes is the longest race any of the horses have ever run in, and most horses in this country are not bred to go a mile-and-a-half. Belmont Park is the largest racing facility in the U.S. and has hosted the Belmont Stakes since 1867. Secretariat’s final time, 2:24.00 is the quickest in race history. The second fastest was Hastings in 1896 who ran 2:24.50. In 1986 Easy Goer ran 2:26.00. In horse racing a fifth of a second is equal to a length. Therefore, Secretariat has beaten every horse in over a century by 10 lengths or more.

Belmont Stakes Favorite

For a horse that hasn’t run in two months, there sure has been a lot of news about Forte. First, he was scratched the morning of the Kentucky Derby by track vets, and then information about a failed drug test last summer surfaced. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, has also gotten a bunch of negative press.

Regardless, New York-based Pletcher, who has won the Belmont four times including last year with Mo Donegal, has said Forte deserves his chance to run in a Triple Crown event. He was last year’s two-year-old champion and overcame a brutal post position in the Florida Derby.

Forte’s resume is outstanding, but his critics will point out his last three races have declined when it comes to speed ratings. On the flip side, Mage winning the Run for the Roses flatters Forte.

Belmont Stakes Contenders

Each year fewer horses who compete in the Kentucky Derby turn around two weeks later and try the Preakness Stakes. This year only Derby champ Mage gave it a go. However, modern thoroughbreds love a five-week gap between races. That’s why you see so many horses go straight from Louisville to New York.

After Forte scratched on the first Saturday in May, Angel of Empire became the favorite. Though he didn’t run down Mage, he made up plenty of ground in the stretch. His late-running style profiles well for the Belmont. He was at his best late in winning the Risen Star Stakes and Arkansas Derby this year too.

Tapit Trice is void of early speed, which probably is ok running a marathon. His late kick helped him win the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes. In Louisville, he got bumped entering the stretch, went wide, and finished a distant seventh. Also trained by Pletcher, he is the most expensive horse in the race at $1.25 million, and his father, Tapit, has produced four offspring that won the Belmont Stakes.

Value In a Belmont Stakes Upset?

This year’s Preakness was a peculiar race. Mage was the only Kentucky Derby participate to travel to Baltimore, and when First Mission scratched the day before the Preakness, only one speed horse remained in the field. Bob Baffert’s National Treasure went to the front, slowed down the tempo, and had enough juice left down the stretch to hold off Blazing Sevens.

Baffert has won the Belmont three times, and veteran New York-based jockey John Velazquez has won the Belmont Stakes twice. Going a mile-and-a-half three weeks after winning the Preakness is a challenge, and it would seem there will be more pace to deal with, though the top choices all want to rally late. Could Johnny V, a Hall of Famer, pull off the same trick twice?

Red Route One has faced really difficult competition. He has two wins in 10 starts and beat Tapit Shoes in the Bath House Row Stakes. On paper, it appears he will like more distance, and he was pace compromised, bumped coming out of the gate, and rank in the Preakness. His dad, Gun Runner, got better and better throughout his three-year-old campaign and was at his best at the age of four. On the dam side, he is out of a Tapit mare. As mentioned previously, Tapit’s have run well at the Belmont Stakes.

Belmont Stakes Expert Picks

Angel of Empire was better than Tapit Trice in the Kentucky Derby. It has always felt like Tapit Trice might enjoy the longer Belmont Stakes. On paper, neither were as good as Forte prior to the first Saturday in May. Then Mage, who lost to Forte twice, beat Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, and all the other top three-year-olds. National Treasure didn’t even qualify to get into the Derby, and while he was strong in the Preakness, he got set up awfully nice when no other speed horses ran. Forte was the best of this group last year, and until someone proves that isn’t the case now, he looks like the most logical winner.

Belmont Stakes Picks: Forte (+250)