Opening Belmont Stakes Odds: Forte Makes His Triple Crown Debut
- The Belmont Stakes concludes this year’s Triple Crown on June 10 in New York
- Forte, Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice are among the early favorites
- Check out the opening Belmont Stakes odds and analysis of how the prices could flip
Mage won the Kentucky Derby, and minutes after finishing third in the Preakness Stakes his connections said he would not be participating in this year’s Belmont Stakes. Who will run in The Test of Champions? And who are the early favorites in the opening Belmont Stakes odds?
Preakness champ National Treasure seems likely to take part in the Belmont, at least that was how the tea leaves looked when trainer Bob Baffert was questioned following the Second Jewel of the Triple Crown. As it pertains to playing a futures wager, obviously you want a horse that can win, but you are ahead of the game if you just choose someone who runs.
National Treasure paid $7.80 on a two dollar win bet Saturday. You could have had him immediately after the Derby at +1600. Why was he a good bet in that moment? He didn’t participate in the Derby, and it seemed likely a lot of Run for the Roses entrants would pass on Pimlico. As it turned out, except for Mage everyone opted out. Whether you liked National Treasure or not, having a reasonably strong idea he’d be in the starting gate presented value, particularly since Baffert trained him. As it turns out, not a single horse that ran in the Preakness went off at more than +1050.
So who will try the mile-and-a-half Belmont Stakes? Forte was the Derby favorite before being scratched on the first Saturday in May and trainer Todd Pletcher has said he deserves a chance at Triple Crown glory. Several horses who ran at Churchill Downs surely figure the five weeks off between the first and last race in the series could work out well.
2023 Belmont Stakes Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Forte | +300 |
| Tapit Trice | +350 |
| Angel of Empire | +450 |
| National Treasure | +700 |
| Arabian Lion | +800 |
| Raise Cain | +1400 |
| Arcangelo | +1400 |
| Hit Show | +1600 |
| Red Route One | +2000 |
| Kingsbarns | +2000 |
| Reincarnate | +2500 |
| Sun Thunder | +3300 |
| Prove Worthy | +5000 |
Forte starts as the early favorite in the opening Belmont Stakes odds, just slightly ahead of Tapit Trcie and Angel of Empire. Odds as of May 26. Prove Worthy is the biggest early longshot at +5000.
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Belmont Park is one of the biggest tracks in horse racing. It is both large in stature and size. The marathon Belmont Stakes is not for everyone. However, horses with great endurance prosper in it.
For the first time FOX will televise this year’s Belmont, and legendary race caller Tom Durkin is returning. He won’t have to worry about his brutal Triple Crown record, with nobody running for history this time around.
While it is unclear what the entire field will look like, that is why futures betting presents value. Sportsbooks make straight profit on all the horses that get action but do not run, however since they know plenty of dead money is in the pool, the odds on those who do run can be inflated.
Is It Forte’s Time, Finally?
On March 1, it seemed like the Kentucky Derby had two primary contenders. Arabian Knight was injured shortly thereafter, and all focus shifted to Forte. His victory despite an awful outside post position in the Florida Derby made him a pretty clear cut Derby favorite.
Sure, Forte’s speed figures declined in his final two prep races, but his resume, six wins in seven starts including the Breeders Cup Juvenile title towered over the field. Then he was scratched the morning of the Run for the Roses.
Since then, more has come out about Forte. While the news that he tested positive for a banned substance last summer isn’t great, it shouldn’t really effect him going forward. Also, the horse he beat twice in Florida prior to the Kentucky Derby, Mage, has flattered Forte’s victories.
Welcome Back Derby Horses
The strong trend in recent years has been to pass on the Preakness Stakes, just two weeks after the Run for the Roses, if you don’t win the Kentucky Derby. Just like NBA players now rest more than they used to, hoping to be more healthy for the playoffs, horses don’t run as frequently as in yesteryear.
The only horses that really had a serious chance to beat Mage in Kentucky were Two Phil’s and Angel of Empire. Two Phil’s is targeting either the Ohio Derby or Matt Winn Stakes next, not the Belmont.
The Derby favorite after Forte scratched, Angel of Empire was the only horse aside from Mage who really made up a ton of ground. It sure seems like extra distance won’t be a problem. Angel of Empire was also doing his best running in the late stages of the Risen Star Stakes, and Arkansas Derby, each which he won. He’s +450 in the Belmont Stakes odds.
Tapit Trice was the +453 second choice in Louisville and finished seventh. He profiles as the type of horses who will like longer races. Remember, the Kentucky Derby is a weird event, the only race all year with so many horses, and it is easy to get a bad trip. Tapit Trice, who lacks early speed but has a real kick late won the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes.
Don’t Forget the Preakness/Baffert
National Treasure was impressive winning the Preakness, he got out great, made life difficult on his opponents forcing the other speed horses to run wide, slowed down the tempo, and outlasted Blazing Sevens down the stretch. Baffert has won the Belmont three times. He is unlikely to secure such a slow tempo at the Belmont Stakes, but maybe he is at the top of this crop. Three weeks between races is quick, but not nearly as abnormal in this day and age as two weeks.
Blazing Sevens and Perform, who were both pace compromised in Baltimore, are not headed to New York. In fact, none of National Treasure’s competitors in the Charm City seem like they are targeting the Belmont. That doesn’t mean Baffert won’t send another intriguing option.
Arabian Lion won the Sir Barton Stakes on the Preakness undercard. Baffert has always been high on this pricey son of Triple Crown winner Justify, but he has just two wins in six starts. That said, he last two efforts are clearly the two best in his career and compare fairly well with other top Belmont contenders.
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Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
