Preakness Stakes Longshot Picks – Win Big With These 4 Horses
- The Preakness Stakes has consistently produced upsets in recent years
- Is Saturday’s Middle Jewel of the Triple Crown going to be another shocker?
- What Preakness Stakes longshots should we give a look at on Saturday?
Each of the last four Preakness Stakes champs has paid more than $10 on a $2 win bet. Early Voting scored for $13.40 last year, after Rombauer paid $25.60 in 2021, while filly Swiss Skydiver beat the boys and cashed to the tune of $25.40 in 2020, following War of Will’s $14.20 victory in 2019. Is Kentucky Derby winner Mage a reasonable favorite? Sure. Is he a lock? Far from it. So let’s consider some of our top Preakness Stakes longshot picks.
The latest Preakness Stakes odds favor Mage, and to a lesser degree National Treasure and Blazing Stevens. They can all win. The odds have moved significantly over the past two weeks because top contenders like Forte and Two Phil’s are not running.
Pari mutuel betting in horse racing is unique. Essentially, there is a push and pull. For every dollar wagered on a specific horse, that means the odds on the other horses go up. That’s why if the favorite, or top two or three choices lose, the payout can be big. Before you log on to your favorite horse racing betting sites, let’s discuss the four biggest prices in this year’s Preakness.
Preakness Stakes Longshots
Why shouldn’t Mage win the Preakness? He just beat a better and deeper field in the Kentucky Derby. However, he ran his best and most tiring race two weeks ago, while all of his challengers are more well rested. The Preakness winner each of the last two years has been fresher than some of his primary competition.
Pimlico is also different than Churchill Downs. What horse is going to prefer the mile-and-three-sixteenths course with tight turns to the long stretch during the mile-and-a-quarter Derby? Post time is 7:01 pm ET with NBC televising the event. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in the 70s and about a 20 percent chance of rain.
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Let’s also consider the pace of the race. Last year after the Kentucky Derby was run incredibly quickly, setting up Rich Strike’s improbable rally. The Preakness had a tepid tempo, Early Voting was near the front, and had to pass only a single horse to win. Once again the Derby was fast this year. Mage took advantage of that pace to rally. What if things aren’t so quick early on in Baltimore?
Preakness longshot picks can be valuable for multiple reasons. A victory by a bomb will pay very well, but you can also use them underneath to spice up exacta, trifecta, and superfecta payouts.
Chase the Chaos and Coffeewithchris are Preakness Longshots
When Rich Strike won the Derby, if you hadn’t already, you should have recognized anyone can win a horse race. Crazy things occur from time-to-time. That said, Mage has run four times, and his worst career race is considerably better than any of Chase the Chaos’s eight tries. Coffeewithchris has run a dozen times, and his best performance is roughly on par with Mage’s weakest effort.
Chase the Chaos won Golden Gate Field’s El Camino Real Derby in February. Run on a synthetic surface, that is the same race that propelled Rombauer to Preakness glory. However, between the El Camino Real and Preakness, Rombauer ran third to Essential Quality in the Blue Grass Stakes. Chase the Chaos beat two of nine horses in March’s San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita finishing more than 16 lengths behind the winner, and then was eighth of nine in Golden Gate’s California Derby last month.
Maryland bred Coffeewithchris has won two stakes races. Like normal, he was in the mix early last time out, but faltered late against Perform in the Federico Tesio Stakes.
It would be hard to like Coffeewithchris more than Perform based on that performance, unless you think the pace is going to be very slow and Coffeewithchris is loose on the lead. That isn’t likely, but isn’t impossible either.
Perform Has Seen Mage Before
Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey is known to be patient. His horses improve over time. Perform needed six races to break his maiden. A $230,000 son of Good Magic, his sire is the same as Mage. Good Magic was fourth in the Preakness, and won the Travers Stakes.
Perform finished fourth, more than five lengths behind Mage on January 28. That was Mage’s career debut, and start number five for Perform. However, Perform then broke his maiden in early March, and won the Tesio April 15. When Mage beat Perform, it was a seven furlong test at Gulfstream Park. The circumstances are much different here. On that day Perform was +560 and Mage +1160. That won’t be the case on Saturday in the Preakness Stakes odds.
Red Route One Will Be Rolling Late
There is a pretty good argument to be made that neither of the best three year olds ran in the Kentucky Derby. Arabian Knight was injured months ago, and Forte was scratched on the day of the race. Red Route One has faced both of them, and also lost to Two Phil’s and Angel of Empire, who asserted themselves well in the Run for the Roses.
Red Route One has run nine times, has two wins, and has faced top level competition. If you toss out his three races, all losses, in sloppy conditions, and two races on the turf, he has performed admirably.
Like Perform, he likes to rally from way back. It worked in his last effort, the Bath House Row Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
Extra distance shouldn’t be an issue for Red Route One, and trainer Steve Asmussen has won the Preakness twice. The question will be the pace of the race. Is there enough early tempo for Red Route One to rally into?
Preakness Stakes Longshot Picks
If you believe that National Treasure, and Coffeewithchris provides ample early speed, down the stretch it could be really exciting with Mage, Blazing Sevens, Perform and Red Route One all furiously rallying.
Blazing Sevens’ resume is no stronger than Red Route One’s, Mage just ran two weeks ago, and Perform has not yet faced this caliber of competition, aside from losing convincingly to the Derby champ.
If speed is rolling early, Red Route One can pick up the pieces and score at a nice price for your Preakness Stakes longshot picks at +1000 odds.
Get more Preakness Stakes predictions from SBD here!
- 2023 Preakness Stakes Odds & Expert Picks for Favorites & Contenders
- Pimlico Race Course Odds & Picks – Preakness Stakes Undercard
- Preakness Stakes Exotic Bets – Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta Picks
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Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
