Preakness Stakes Best Bets: Win, Place & Show Picks
- Saturday’s Preakness Stakes is the second jewel of the Triple Crown
- Picking the winner is the focus for many, but pondering who will finish behind the champ can be profitable
- Where is there betting value in the win, place, and show pools for our 2023 Preakness Stakes best bets?
This year’s Preakness Stakes has only a field of seven. Most of the attention will be on Kentucky Derby winner Mage and the fact that none of his rivals from two weeks ago in Louisville are challenging him again. Mage has a good chance to win, but the payouts won’t be particularly exciting if he triumphs. The recent past says that you should consider some longer-priced options, and not just in the win column.
Twelve months ago Early Voting won the Preakness. As the third choice, he paid $13.40 to win on a two-dollar bet. Three years ago Jesus’ Team paid $12.20 to show. In 2019 Everfast rewarded bettors with $32 to place. This year’s Preakness Stakes odds changed considerably on Friday morning when second choice First Mission scratched.
Fire up one of your favorite horse racing betting apps, remind yourself how pari-mutuel betting in horse racing works, and let’s dive into the odds, not just to win, but to finish second and third in this year’s Run for the Black-Eyed Susans.
Preakness Best Bets for 2023
| Horse | Win Odds | Place Odds | Show Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mage | -130 | -400 | -700 |
| National Treasure | +250 | -150 | -300 |
| Blazing Sevens | +650 | +185 | -125 |
| Red Route One | +1200 | +300 | +125 |
| Perform | +1400 | +400 | +165 |
| Coffeewithchris | +2500 | +700 | +300 |
| Chase The Chaos | +3300 | +900 | +400 |
Mage is the prohibitive Preakness Stakes favorite for a win bet, with Bob Baffert’s National Treasure the clear second choice. Remember, you can bet to place and show too. The prices are shorter, but if your choice finishes first or second you cash a place wager, and first, second, or third scores you a show victory.
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For what it is worth, in 149 runnings of the Preakness Stakes, 36 Derby winners have added Preakness glory to their resume, while 26 of those who took the roses finished second in Baltimore.
Best Win Bet
While you can make arguments for five of the seven horses in the field, Mage’s resume towers over this group. Sure, he ran just two weeks ago. Yes, the pace may be slower than in Louisville. Are those two factors good enough reasons to look elsewhere in the win pool?
The Kentucky Derby is considered the best field of three-year-olds of the year. Up to 20 horses can run, and except for horses who are injured, usually the best of the best compete. Mage beat that group, and only two horses were close to him. Those two, plus all the others who signed up for the Derby, are not participating in the Preakness.
The two weeks rest argument is a valid one, everyone else in the field is more well-rested. The pace scenario might not be such a problem. Mage was forwardly placed in his first two races and got out poorly in his third. If the pace is slow, there’s no reason he can’t be near the front.
Mage’s opponents may run their best career race on Saturday. They will need it to beat him unless he regresses significantly.
Best Place Bet
The logical answer to the most likely horse to finish second is National Treasure. Baffert has won the Preakness seven times, and National Treasure very easily could be the pacesetter, and possibly even lose on the lead. While each of his five races have been fast, he has only a single win. National Treasure’s two races this year are no better than what he produced as a two-year-old, and while adding blinkers is a good sign that he is going to race up front early, Baffert’s ROI when putting blinks on suggests more desperation than savvy move. Baffert’s previously unbeaten filly Faiza did not run well in Friday’s Black-Eyed Susan Stakes at Pimlico, and it is possible that this year’s California crop, where National Treasure has been running, just isn’t great.
Trainer Chad Brown won last year’s Preakness with Early Voting, who skipped the Derby and was fresh in Baltimore. Brown sends out Blazing Sevens, who has faced top competition consistently but hasn’t been close to winning in two tries this year. He has excuses, getting bumped at the start of two of his last three races, and maybe flying late. Like National Treasure, he is viable, but the price is not all that enticing.
Red Route One has also been facing tough foes, and he too will be rolling down the stretch. He made up 18 lengths but was still one shy of winning February’s Rebel Stakes against several Derby runners. Dropping down in competition, he made up a lot of ground and won last month’s Bath House Row Stakes.
Red Route One’s trainer, Steve Asmussen, has won more races than any U.S.-based conditioner in history. He has won the Preakness twice, plus the price is right.
Best Preakness Stakes Show Bet
If we’re not going to play National Treasure or Blazing Sevens, in part because of their price, to place, let’s fade them to show too.
Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey has won the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, and nine Breeders Cup races. The 72-year-old has never captured the Preakness but has only tried three times. He sends out Perform, who wasn’t very good in his first four starts, but has improved since. Going seven furlongs on January 28, he finished fourth. That was the race Mage debuted in, and won. Perform broke his maiden in March, and then won a stakes race at Laurel Park last month. He seems to like longer distances and is clearly improving.
Preakness Stakes Best Bets for 2023
Mage is going to be tough to beat against what is not a bad field but certainly isn’t a distinguished group at this point. Anything close to his race from two weeks ago should get the job done, unless someone else dramatically improves.
Red Route One and Perform simply provide more betting value than National Treasure and Blazing Sevens. All four are clearly reasonable, but there are enough reasons to question the two lower-priced horses, and therefore taking a shot at bigger numbers feels like the right strategy
Here are our top win, place, and show Preakness Stakes handicapper picks.
- Win: Mage (-130)
- Place: Red Route One (+300)
- Show: Perform (+165)
Get more Preakness Stakes predictions from SBD here!
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Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
