Risen Star Stakes Odds & Picks – Victory Formation Favored in First 50-Point Kentucky Derby Qualifier

• The $400,000 Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes is Saturday at Fair Grounds Race Course
• This is the first 2023 Kentucky Derby prep race that awards 50 qualifying points to the winner
• Is Victory Formation the favorite for good reason? What about a longshot selection? See all of the Risen Star Stakes odds here

Last year Rich Strike earned 21 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, and by the hair of his chinny-chin-chin made it into the starting gate on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs. As an enormous longshot, he won North America’s biggest race. Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes in New Orleans is the first Derby prep race of 2023 that awards 50 points to the winner, and all but guarantees they can run in the Derby if they are healthy and choose to. Let’s look at the contenders in the Risen Star Stakes odds here.

Unbeaten Victory Formation is the favorite in the 14-horse field. Last year Epicenter won as the second choice, and then finished second at the Kentucky Derby. Two years ago Mandaloun won the Risen Star Stakes, and though he was second across the line in Louisville, he won the Derby via disqualification.

Let’s look carefully at Victory Formation, his competition, and consider our wagering options for our Risen Star Stakes prediction.

2023 Risen Star Stakes Odds

Odds as of February 15

In the Risen Star Stakes odds above you can see Victory Formation is favored at +300 odds, followed by Tapit’s Conquest at +600.

The Risen Star will be run at 7:14 pm EST Saturday. The mile-and-an-eighth main track event dates back to the early 1970s. Temperatures at the Fair Grounds are expected to be in the low 50s and there is almost no chance of rain. Fan Duel TV will air the race.

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In addition to the winner receiving 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, the runner-up will earn 20 points. The third-place horse gets 15 points, the fourth place 10 points, and whoever finishes fifth is awarded five points. The winner will likely see their Kentucky Derby odds shorten after this race.

Let’s look at the Risen Star Stakes picks to win here.

Victory Formation Shown Few Weaknesses

Victory Formation has run three different distances at three separate tracks and looked increasingly impressive, winning each race.

The Brad Cox-trained son of Belmont Stakes winner Tapwrit dominated Oaklawn Park’s Smarty Jones Stakes on January 1.

Victory Formation debuted with an easy win at Keeneland in October followed it up with a second sprint victory in November, and his most impressive win was his first two turn try.

No Clear Second Choice in Risen Star But Plenty of Solid Options

Two Phil’s and Curly Jack both finished second behind Instant Coffee last time out. Instant Coffee is one of the handful of top Derby contenders at this juncture following his score in last month’s Lecomte Stakes.

Two Phil’s was two-and-a-half lengths behind Instant Coffee in the Lecomte. That was his 2023 debut, after winning the Street Sense Stakes in October. He took a major step forward last month.

Curly Jack has not raced since being beaten by Instant Coffee by just over a length in November. He was a big longshot and finished fifth in a 10-horse field in the Breeders Cup Juvenile before that.

Determinedly has already run eight times. The first four weren’t memorable, with three of them on turf. The last four races are all pretty good, and include two victories. He won a competitive optional claiming event at the Fair Grounds on January 21.

Top trainer Brad Cox has Tapit’s Conquest and Angel of Empire. Tapit’s Conquest has only one win in three starts and is making his stakes debut. That said, he missed by only a neck against Determinedly last time out. He needs to take a step forward to win on Saturday, but he is in good consistently good form.

At +1800, Angel of Empire finished second behind Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones. That was by far his best career race. Could more improvement be in store?

Harlocap changed from the powerful Bob Baffert barn to Steve Asmussen’s. Asmussen is the winningest trainer of all time. Harlocap has one win, and two seconds in three starts. This is the first try against winners for the $400,000 son of Triple Crown winner Justify.

Risen Star Stakes Longshots

Asmussen’s Silver Heist has run only twice. He was third against Determinedly and Tapit’s Conquest last time out but was beaten by only a length. Late developing and lightly raced horses can be dangerous because they have the potential for significant improvement.

Asmussen also has Private Creed making his dirt debut on Saturday. He lost by less than two lengths in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, and just missed last month in the Texas Turf Mile.

Crupi is still winless. That said, the $275,000 son of Breeders Cup Classic winner Curlin looked good at Aqueduct on January 2 finishing a tight second in a maiden race. Crupi has some of the top connections in racing, trainer Todd Pletcher, owners Repole and St. Elias Stables.

Risen Star Stakes Prediction

You can go a lot of different ways in this group by looking through the Risen Star Stakes odds. Victory Formation has the best resume to this point. If he repeats his most recent performance, someone else will need to run better than they have before to win. While that is certainly possible, or Victory Formation may not run his best, he is the most likely winner.

Risen Star Stakes Picks: Victory Formation (+300)