Santa Anita Derby Odds & Prediction – Is Practical Move the Best in the West?
- More Kentucky Derby winners this century have come out of the Santa Anita Derby than any other prep
- Practical Move is the favorite in Saturday’s $750,000 Grade 1 feature
- Should you bet on or against Practical Move in the West Coast’s final Derby tuneup?
In five of the last 11 Kentucky Derbys, the horse who finished first had prepped in the Santa Anita Derby. This year the marque race for three-year-olds in California seems to have a legitimate favorite, three reasonable alternatives, and a wildcard.
Kentucky Derby odds suggest the Santa Anita Derby has several major players. While race favorite Practical Move already has enough points to qualify for the Run for the Roses, the rest of the field needs help. The winner, who earns 100 points, and the runner-up, who receives 40 points, should make it in. For those who have already picked up some points, getting 30 points for third, 20 for fourth, or 10 for fifth place could be important.
Let’s look at the odds for the mile-and-an-eighth Santa Anita Derby, and consider where there is some betting intrigue.
2023 Santa Anita Derby Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Practical Move | +160 |
| Geaux Rocket Ride | +300 |
| National Treasure | +300 |
| Skinner | +400 |
| Mandarin Hero | +800 |
| I Don’t Get It | +2000 |
| Low Expectations | +3000 |
| Dazzlemesilver | +5000 |
| One in Vermillion | +5000 |
Post time on Saturday is scheduled for 5:30pm EST with beautiful weather, low 70s, and no rain forecast for Southern California. NBC will televise the race.
Run since 1935, 10 horses have won the Santa Anita Derby and the Kentucky Derby. Another seven have lost the Santa Anita Derby but captured the roses in Louisville anyway. Trainer Bob Baffert has won the race a record nine times, but his horses are currently ineligible from earning Kentucky Derby qualifying points. National Treasure is a Baffert horse, who temporarily is being conditioned by former Baffert assistant Tim Yakteen.
Let’s look closely at the top Santa Anita Derby contenders here.
Practical Move Is Not Your Typical Derby Horse
There was little fanfare when Practical Move, the son of Practical Joke, was bred for $5,000, and only modest interest when he went to auction and fetched $230,000. Oddly bred by top trainer Chad Brown, Practical Move is the rare Yakteen-trained horse that is a Derby hopeful that did not come from Baffert.
He debuted at +2460 odds and finished a distant second to Cave Rock in August. He returned to finish third behind National Treasure in September. A month later he was second behind Fort Bragg, but the winner was disqualified, and Practical Move was awarded his first win. After a third-place finish against solid foes in the Bob Hope Stakes, at +1060 he won December’s Los Alamitos Futurity. His 2023 debut was his best career race and the one that puts him firmly in the Derby picture.
Sure, Practical Move got a perfect trip in the San Felipe Stakes. Also, nobody was close to him. And oh by the way, he faces a couple of those same rivals on Saturday.
Do Familiar Foes Have Reason for Optimism?
Geaux Rocket Ride was moving pretty well down the stretch in the San Felipe in only his second career start. The first two are strong and lightly raced horses often show significant improvement race-by-race. Can he make up the two-and-a-half lengths? His father, Candy Ride, won the Pacific Classic.
Just three weeks after breaking his maiden, Skinner had the most difficult run in the San Felipe. He was very wide on the second turn and made a nice move. That said, it was only good enough to be a well-beaten third. The $510,000 son of Breeders Cup Classic winner Curlin has one win in five starts. However, he was racing against stakes foes before breaking his maiden, and his last two races are fast.
National Treasure was slated to be the favorite in the San Felipe but missed the race with a minor foot injury. He finished third in January’s Sham Stakes.
National Treasure was in Baffert’s barn during each of his four races, so he has no qualifying points and must finish first or second to advance to Louisville. He’s never run a bad race. He has a win, a second, and two-thirds, facing good competition each time he has run. He is a $500,000 son of Florida Derby and Met Mile winner Quality Road.
Land of the Rising Sun
Japanese horse racing is having a moment. Horses from the Far East had success in the 2021 Breeders Cup and recently won the Saudi Cup and Dubai World Cup. Mandarin Hero was bred in Japan and has run all five of his races there.
The son of Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Shanghai Bobby, Mandarin Hero went four-for-four last year. His lone effort this year was a second-place effort against a pretty decent field in Japan on February 23.
It is hard to know what to expect from Mandarin Hero, but he is worth a long look at +800.
Santa Anita Derby Prediction
Practical Move is the deserving favorite and +160 is not a crazy price. That said, National Treasure was going to be favored over him in the San Felipe Stakes if an injury didn’t get in the way. National Treasure must run well to make it to the Kentucky Derby, all the eggs are in this basket, and getting nearly double the price than Practical Move is enough for us to lean in that direction.
Santa Anita Derby Pick: National Treasure (+300)
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Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
