Saratoga Predictions & Odds – Fourstardave Handicap & More Horse Racing Picks

• Saratoga’s Saturday card is highlighted by The Fourstardave Handicap, A Breeders Cup Win and You’re In Event
• Kentucky Derby dreamers will take to the track in the Saratoga Special Stakes
• Where can we find betting value Saturday afternoon at The Spa in our Saratoga predictions?

The Sultan of Saratoga, Fourstardave won at least one race at The Spa each year from 1987 to 1994. A New York bred that was purchased for only $2,500, he was a fan favorite that earned more than $1.6 million. The race named for Fourstardave is a Grade 1, one mile turf event that earns the winner a berth in the Breeders Cup Mile. We have this year’s Fourstardave picks and all of this weekend’s Saratoga predictions here.

Trainer Bill Mott has won the Fourstardave a record five times. He sends out defending champ Casa Creed on Saturday. The Fourstardave Handicap is one of three stakes on the card. Let’s look at the trio and consider where a bet might be worthwhile for our horse racing picks today.

Expert Horse Racing Picks at Saratoga

Our expert horse racing picks this weekend at Saratoga are going the way of Love Reigns (+250, Rhyme Schemes (-125) and Casa Creed (+140).

Weather has caused trouble this meet at Saratoga, and the outlook for Saturday isn’t great. While temperatures are slated to be in the mid 70s, there is a 70% chance of rain in the late afternoon. The Galway, a five-and-a-half furlong grass race, has a post time of 4:30 pm ET. The Saratoga Special, at six-and-a-half furlongs on the main track, goes at 5:06 pm. The Fourstardave begins at 5:44 pm. Fox will air all three races.

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Galway Stakes Prediction

Love Reigns (+250) feels like good betting value in this 11 horse field. She has run five times with three victories including a pair of stakes scores. Her lone defeats are at Royal Ascot against the best in the world, and in the Breeders Cup, where she ran poorly as a big favorite against boys. She is coming off of her best career effort.

Trainer Wesley Ward specializes in turf sprinters, and Love Reigns won her only career start at Saratoga.

Beauty of the Sea (+1000) beat Love Appeals (+400) and My Sweet Affair (+600) four weeks ago at Monmouth Park. Beauty of the Sea has improved in each of her five races, but took a big step forward last time out. Love Appeals was the favorite in the Blue Sparkler Stakes, and is now running for the second time since a layoff. My Sweet Affair gets top jockey Irad Ortiz Jr on Saturday.

Redifined (+600) is coming off her best career win, albeit against lesser competition. She just missed in a stakes race in the fall. Her effort at Saratoga last August was solid.

Galway Stakes Picks: Love Reigns (+250)

Saratoga Special Prediction

Rhyme Schemes (-125) ran an absolutely incredible race on June 15 at Ellis Park. After finishing sixth of nine horses in his debut at Churchill Downs, he led every step of the way going five-and-a-half furlongs in try number two. The time of the race was fast, the competition was solid, and a repeat of that effort would be really difficult to compete with. So is he the horse we saw first time out, or the second version? If he improves on the last race, people are going to start talking about aiming for the roses in May.

Edified (+350) is a $650,000 son of Tapit trained by Steve Asmussen. He broke poorly in his only race, but quickly made up ground, and beat a field of nine at Ellis Park going six furlongs on July 1. Like Rhyme Schemes, he was not bet strongly. Unlike Rhyme Schemes, the time of the race came back average not overly quick.

Haul (+300) was the favorite when winning by three lengths at first asking July 9 at Belmont Park. The five-and-a-half furlong race was won in a normal time. The $260,000 son of Army Mule is trained by top conditioner Todd Pletcher.

The son of Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, Market Sense (+1000) won his first race, and led most of the way before fading against stakes horses at Saratoga on July 15. Like Edified and Haul, he will need to run considerably faster if Rhyme Schemes repeats his last race.

Rhyme Schemes may regress, and others could improve, but -125 (or 4/5 in horse racing) means implied odds of 55.5%. A repeat of his last race and his chances are a lot greater than that to win. In fact, if he runs 15% worse, he’ll still be hard to catch.

Saratoga Special Picks: Rhyme Schemes (-125)

FourStarDave Handicap Prediction

Only three of seven entrants will get serious play in the feature event, with defending champ Casa Creed (+140) the tepid favorite. She beat Annapolis (+160) when they squared off at The Spa a month ago.

In that race Annapolis was the favorite. Annapolis had won three of four going into the affair with her only loss in the Breeders Cup. Annapolis is a four year old, while Casa Creed is seven. Casa Creed’s three races prior to the Kelso were at shorter distances. Her last three races going a mile include two wins, and a loss to Annapolis in October at Keeneland.

Emmanuel (+300) does not have a Grade 1 win, like the other top contenders. However, Emmanuel is four years old and just took the Grade 3 Poker Stakes at Belmont Park. She has won four of her last six and Ortiz will ride.

Fourstardave Handicap Picks: Casa Creed (+140)