Braves vs Phillies Predictions, Odds & Player Props Picks for Game 4 (Oct. 12)

• The Phillies have a chance to eliminate the Braves in Game 4 of the NLDS on Thursday, Oct. 12
• Philadelphia has won eight straight NL playoff games at home dating back to last season
• Below, see the Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies odds, player props, and picks for Thursday’s Game 4 at Citizens Bank Park

A massive six-run third inning staked the Philadelphia Phillies (94-73, 52-32 home) to an early 6-1 lead against the Atlanta Braves (105-59, 52-30 away) last night, and Philly would cruise to a 10-2 victory to establish a 2-1 series lead in the best-of-five NLDS.

That makes tonight’s Game 4 at Citizens Bank Park a potential elimination game for Atlanta, the top team in Major League Baseball during the regular season and the favorite in the World Series odds heading into the playoffs.

The good news for Braves fans is that, with young ace Spencer Strider on the hill, Atlanta has been set as a sizable favorite in the Braves vs Phillies Game 4 odds.

Braves vs Phillies Odds: Game 4

Atlanta is a -150 moneyline favorite to do what they couldn’t last year and force a decisive Game 5. The Phillies are +130 underdogs to advance to the NLCS tonight. First pitch is scheduled for 8:07 pm ET in the last remaining divisional series.

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Odds as of Oct. 12, 2023, at BetMGM. Claim a BetMGM bonus code to bet on Braves vs Phillies Game 4 on Thursday night. 

Even though the Arizona Diamondbacks already moved onto the NLCS in the 2023 MLB playoff bracket, the Phillies (+123) are the current betting favorite in the NL Pennant odds. Arizona is close behind at +135 while Atlanta faded from +138 to +330 after losing Game 3 yesterday.

Starting Pitchers: Atlanta vs Philadelphia Game 4

The battle on the mound in Game 4 is a rematch of the series opener. Atlanta will have young ace Spencer Strider on the mound in Thursday’s MLB lineups while Philadelphia counters with Ranger Suarez.

Spencer Strider vs Ranger Suarez

Strider was excellent in Game 1, striking out eight over seven innings of work while allowing just one earned run on five hits and two walks. He fell one strikeout short of hitting the over on his strikeout number in the MLB player props (8.5).

Suarez wasn’t asked to pitch deep into Game 1, but got his team through 3.2 innings without allowing a run. He allowed just one hit and one walk while striking out four. A parade of six Philly relievers kept up the dominance in a massively important 3-0 road win.

Philly’s bullpen has been considerably less taxed over the past two games: combined, seven relievers accounted for 5.2 innings during Games 2 and 3.  Given that Tuesday was an off-day, the Phillies’ pen should have ample arms available to relieve Suarez early again.

Braves vs Phillies Player Props: Game 4

The odds for the Braves hitters and Phillies hitters are starkly different. Four Philly batters are odds-on favorites to be held hitless, while the same can be said of only one Atlanta hitter (Kevin Pillar). The shortest home-run odds belong to Marcell Ozuna (+340), Kyle Schwarber (+350), and Austin Riley (+360).

The pitcher props are also, as expected, wildly disparate between the two starters. Suarez’s outs-recorded prop is just 11.5 and he can hit the over by getting through four innings. Strider’s O/U is 17.5 and he’ll need to finish the sixth inning to hit the over. They both have the same strikeout number as they did in the series opener: 8.5 for Strider, which he fell half a K short of, and 3.5 for Suarez, which he went over by a half.

Braves vs Phillies Game 4 Predictions

After last night’s 10-run performance, the Phillies have now scored 21 runs in their three home playoff games in 2023. Their dominance at home continues a trend from the 2022 postseason, when they went 5-0 at home against NL opponents. Suarez doesn’t have the talent that Strider does, but as I touched on in the Game 1 preview, he has a rock-solid history against this potent Atlanta lineup. After his 3.2 scoreless innings on Saturday, Braves hitters are now slashing .222/.319/.381 against the 6’1 lefty.

The Philadelphia moneyline is listed as long as +130 at FanDuel, which is just a 43.48% implied win probability, and I love the Phillies at home at that price in Thursday’s MLB odds.

That said, if Suarez wasn’t allowed to go deeper than 11 outs while pitching a one-hit, one-walk shutout in Game 1, don’t expect manager Rob Thomson to let him go deeper tonight when they have a chance to end the series. The odds on his total-outs prop of 11.5 is rightfully shaded to the under, but not so much that I’m shying away from it as the best betting option.

Braves vs Phillies picks for Game 4:

• Phillies moneyline (+130 at FanDuel)
• Strider under 8.5 strikeouts (-155 on the DraftKings Sportsbook app)
• Suarez under 11.5 outs recorded (-130 at DraftKings)