Christian Yelich, Javier Baez Rocket to the Top of 2018 NL MVP Odds

• After spending most of the season as underdogs in the NL MVP race, Javier Baez (+110) and Christian Yelich (+140) are now the favorites
• Both sit atop the NL in many key offensive categories
• The next closest is the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado, who sits at +400

When it comes to the NL MVP race, what a difference a month makes.

At the end of August, Freddie Freeman, Matt Carpenter and Nolan Arenado were locked in a battle atop the odds. All three of them were shorter than +500.

Now? Arenado has fallen back to +400 and Carpenter sits at +500. And the race belongs to Javier Baez and Christian Yelich.

Average Odds to Win the 2018 NL MVP

As you see on the graph, Yelich opened with +17500 average odds to win the NL MVP, while Javier Baez wasn’t even given the respect of appearing on the odds sheet.

Odds to Win 2018 NL MVP

*Odds taken 9/20/18

Yelich’s Sudden but Swift Climb up the NL MVP Leaderboard

Something else you’ll notice about the graph is that Yelich lacks many data points. You can see the dramatic change, but it certainly wasn’t gradual.

The Brewers outfielder opened at +17500 and suddenly, on September 4, he rose to +800. Then another massive jump, as on September 21 he settled in at +140, the second-best odds to win the award.

I know this is likely to devolve into an argument between Brewers fans and Cubs fans, but I think it's helpful to note that whomever wins this will be a worthy MVP. Just like Stanton and Votto last year — it's not like there is a wrong answer (in my humble opinion).

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) September 21, 2018

Baez Finally Getting National Attention

Baez enjoyed a similar trajectory, but not nearly as dramatic.

At the end of May, Baez was a healthy +2500. His first jump came at the beginning of August, where the consistency of his season bumped him up to +400. Now he’s the odds on favorite at +110.

How did Baez Become the Favorite for NL MVP?

The Cubs’ utility man has been all over the field offensively and defensively this year.

Outside of a minor swoon in May, where he hit .262, Baez has been hitting above .280 all year long. He’s hit six or more home runs in four of six months, leading to his career-high of 33. He’s had two 20-RBI months, including a blistering 26 to start the season.

Baez’s consistency has led him to a surprising lead in the NL RBI race with 107. He also sits just two off the NL lead in home runs with 33 and is just one of three players in the National League with at least 30 home runs and at least 20 stolen bases.

How do you Measure Baez’s Intangibles?

Something almost impossible to measure, though, is Baez’s baseball acumen.

As you can probably figure out from this profile by MLB.com, he’s in a league of his own when it comes to thinking the game.

It shows too, when you consider the impact he’s had in other facets of the game.

Utility players are usually considered afterthoughts. But Baez’s defensive ability, and his ability to perfect multiple positions, is almost as valuable for the Cubs as his offensive prowess.

Javier Baez is the first player in @MLB history to hit more than 30 home runs during a season in which he’s played at least 20 games at second base, third base and shortstop. A point to consider in the NL MVP discussion . . . @MLBNetwork @Cubs

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) September 21, 2018

Baez has spent 700 innings at second base this season, over 350 at shortstop and 142 at third. He has a fielding percentage over 0.977 at the first two this season, and a 0.940 at third.

Baez’s defensive WAR of 1.5 is tied for 17th among all MLB-ers. He’s one of four players with a defensive WAR above 1.5 and an offensive one over 5.0.

Yelich Could Cap his Place in History with NL MVP

While Yelich’s season overall has been impressive, he’s also enjoyed a little bit of history.

Earlier in September, Yelich became the 25th player in baseball history to hit for the cycle twice. He’s the fifth player to do it twice in the same year, and the first to do it against the same team.

Our condolences to the Cincinnati Reds.

All of this underscores Yelich’s best season as a pro.

Magical Season Garners NL MVP Love for Yelich

Yelich has hit .300 or better in four months this season, including a ridiculous .400 in 26 July games.

He wouldn’t be at his career-best 31 homers without the 11 bombs he hit i August. He’s knocked in 93 runs, and has safely marked career-highs in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS.

I don't think Christian Yelich ought to be the NL MVP but I've loved his game forever and I'm glad he's having the kind of year where he's close enough that his teammates are stumping for him. He's long overdue for this kind of attention.

— Michael Baumann (@MichaelBaumann) September 21, 2018

Yelich is leading the NL batting race with a .319 average, and his slugging percentage and OPS are tops in the senior circuit.

Does Baez Deserve to be the Favorite for NL MVP?

With his steady performance across the season, Baez definitely deserves to be leading the pack down the home stretch.

But can he hold on to win?

Javier Baez says take that Christian Yelich with another home run. He now has 33 bombs and 107 RBI. Who is your NL MVP?

— Steve Phillips (@StevePhillipsGM) September 19, 2018

Yes. And the thing is, there isn’t really any value anywhere else on the board.

Yelich is his biggest threat, but you aren’t making any real money there. If the Rockies can’t climb back into the playoff picture, you can scratch Nolan Arenado’s name off too.

Yelich has excellent numbers and accomplished something historic this season.

But a wire-to-wire effort from Javier Baez, that almost came out of nowhere, is too hard to ignore.