Cubs vs Cardinals Predictions, Picks & Odds (July 27)
- One week after meeting four times, the Cubs and Cardinals open a new series on Thursday, July 27th
- Both teams are under .500 with Monday’s MLB trade deadline just around the corner
- See the Cubs vs Cardinals odds below, as well as our best bet and picks for this game
Familiarity breeds contempt, and National League Central rivals the Cubs (50-51, 23-25 away) and Cardinals (46-57, 22-26 home) are getting all too familiar with one another in late July. They just concluded a four game series on Sunday, and on Thursday, July 27th, they begin another four game set in The Gateway City.
In the Windy City, they Cubs took three of four from St. Louis and you can bet the Cards would love to return the favor. First pitch for the series opener is scheduled for 7:45 pm ET and can be seen on the Marquee Sports Network as well as Bally Sports Midwest.
As we will detail below, the Cubs will have a decided advantage for Thursday’s matchup, but before we get to that, check out the Cubs vs Cardinals below and then we’ll break down our best bet and prediction for this contest.
Cubs vs Cardinals Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | -105 | +1.5 (-120) | O 9 (-110) |
| St. Louis Cardinals | -115 | -1.5 (+170) | U 9 (-110) |
Coming back from five down to defeat their foes from the South Side on Wednesday, the Cubs have won seven of their last eight, and three of those have come against the Cards. Nevertheless, it’s the Cardinals who have opened as -115 moneyline favorites when these two tango on Thursday.
Both teams have an implied win probability of over 50% to take this matchup, with the Cards at 53.49% to draw first blood. It’s expected to be a steamy one in St. Louis with temperatures in the high 90’s, but falling to the high 80’s later in the night.
SPORTSBOOK
Odds as of July 26th at bet365. Get a bet365 bonus code to bet on Cubs vs Cardinals on Thursday, July 27.
Chicago (NL) vs St. Louis Probable Pitchers
If there’s one pitcher that has spelled trouble for the Cardinals this year, it’s Thursday’s starter, Justin Steele. The Cubs southpaw is a perfect 3-0 against St. Louis this year, including a victory just last week where he punched out nine Cards hitters in just six and two-thirds innings of work.
Justin Steele's last 4 starts vs the Cardinals
25.1 IP
3-0
4 Quality starts
2.51 ERA— Joey Ricotta (@JoeyKnowsNothin) July 22, 2023
It’s not just the Cardinals who have struggled against the lefty this year. In his first full season in the big leagues, Steele has more than held his own against MLB lineups. He ranks second in the National League in ERA and is only one off the league lead in wins.
Unfortunately for the 28-year old, his team hasn’t had much success this season or else his Cy Young odds would likely be a lot shorter than the +1800 they sit at now. Only four pitchers currently own shorter odds to win the award.
Steele vs Mikolas Stats
| 10-3 | Record | 6-5 |
| 2.95 | ERA | 4.33 |
| 1.11 | WHIP | 1.31 |
| .240 | OBA | .279 |
| 4.6 | SO/W Ratio | 3.4 |
On the other hand, Miles Mikolas got hit hard in his last outing against the Cubs. Chicago pounded out 11 hits against the mustached man.
In the first season of a three-year deal, Mikolas has struggled to show the form he displayed last season. His ERA is a over a full run higher and across the board, his statistics are less impressive. Only one pitcher in all of baseball has given up more hits than the 141 the Cards righty has given up this year.
Will Cardinals Finally Steele a Win?
One of the main reasons we’re kind of taken aback that the Cardinals are the chalk in the MLB odds for this one is because of the fact that Steele is a perfect 3-for-3 against the St. Louis this year.
Justin Steele 2023 Stats vs Cardinals
| Record | ERA | OBA | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | 2.95 | .254 | 9.8 |
Sometimes a pitcher just has your number. With each successive start, Steele has whiffed more and more Cardinals, and he hasn’t given up a single long ball in over 18 innings of work against Oliver Marmol’s squad.
Cubs vs Cardinals Picks
Known for having some of the most passionate fans in all of baseball, Busch Stadium hasn’t provided St. Louis with any kind of advantage this year. Only one National League squad has fewer wins as hosts than the Cardinals do this year.
Front office surveys trade deadline from new, unappealing view — seller: Cardinals Extra https://t.co/iZYahzQsr2
— St. Louis Post-Dispatch (@stltoday) July 26, 2023
Both sides look like they’ll only be playing for pride during the last two months of the year and might look decidedly different with the trade deadline odds having some players on these teams more likely to be sporting new uniforms come next week.
For our bet, we’re going to play the trend and bet on Steele to continue his success against St. Louis. Chicago is playing some of their best baseball of the year so we see no reason to make any other prediction in this one.
Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-105)
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George has had a lifelong love affair with sports and studying sports statistics since he was a kid. He graduated from Ryerson University with a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism and has worked in the sports & media industry ever since in various roles from writer to producer.
