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MLB Home Run Derby Odds, Picks & How to Watch

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in MLB Baseball

Jul 17, 2022 · 8:04 PM PDT

MLB home run derby odds
Jul 14, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) hits a two-run home run against the Chicago Cubs during the eight inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
  • New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso is the +175 favorite to win the Home Run Derby at the MLB All-Star game
  • Caesars is offering odds on MLB Home Run Derby first-round matchups
  • BetMGM is providing odds on exact final matchup for the event

When it comes to the MLB All-Star Game, arguably, the Home Run Derby offers more drama and flat out excitement than the actual game itself.

A two-time winner of the event, New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso is the +175 favorite to win again. If Alonso does so, he’ll be earning a share of history. The only three-time winner of the MLB Home Run Derby was baseball legend Ken Griffey Jr. He won the event in 1994, 1998, and 1999.

2022 MLB Home Run Derby Odds

Player (Team) Odds
Pete Alonso (Mets) +175
Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) +300
Juan Soto (Nationals) +600
Ronald Acuna Jr (Braves) +700
Julio Rodriguez (Mariners) +800
Corey Seager (Rangers) +1000
Jose Ramirez (Guardians) +1500
Albert Pujols (Cardinals) +2000

Odds as of July 17 at BetMGM Sportsbook. See available BetMGM Sportsbook.

 

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Dodger Stadium is the site of this year’s competition. It gets underway at 8pm ET on Monday, July 18 and is being broadcast by ESPN.

Will MLB Home Run Derby Be Gonzo Alonso Again?

Griffey, Oakland’s Yoenis Cespedes (2013-14) and Alonso (2019, 2021) are the only sluggers to win back-to-back MLB Home Run Derbys. No MLB All-Star Game was held in 2020 and thus, there was no Home Run Derby. Alonso is the third betting option in the NL MVP odds at +700. He’s the odds-on -125 chalk to reach the final. Alonso is also the +300 favorite to slug the most homers.

Oddsmakers are liking Alonso to become the first to threepeat in the event. However, he’s not the top seed in the competition. That would be Kyle Schwarber of the Philadelphia Phillies. The second betting choice at +300, Schwarber is leading the National League in homers. He was the losing finalist against current Phillies teammate Bryce Harper in the 2018 MLB Home Run Derby.

Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager offers a bit of hometown flavor and intrigue to the event. He played for the Dodgers, +400 co-favorites in the 2022 World Series odds, from 2015-2021. Seager has hit 59 home runs in 310 games at Dodger Stadium.

Alonso, though, is a guy with a passion for this competition. His 131 homers are the all-time record for this event. He wants to make it part of his signature as a ballplayer and figures to be fired up to add to his legacy this year.

Pick: Pete Alonso (+175)

Exact Outcome Prop Offerings

BetMGM is also delivering odds on the exact outcome for the participants and result of the MLB Home Run Derby final. Alonso over Schwarber is the +500 chalk in this prop.

One to watch in this play could be Juan Soto of the Washington Nationals. Last season, his first in the event, saw Soto slug 31 homers in Round 1 as he upset Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Angels. He finished with 57 homers, which already leaves the Nats third baseman sixth on the career list.

A National League batter is the overwhelming -476 chalk to win the event. Bet on one of the American League sluggers to emerge victorious and you’ll get +325 odds.

Pick: Alonso over Soto (+750)

Seager Offering Home-Field Advantage

Most of the first-round matchup odds being offered at Caesars are tipping heavily toward the favorite. The closest of the four first-round showdowns is the one between Seager and Seattle Mariners rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez.

2022 MLB Home Run Derby First-Round Matchup Odds

Player (Team) Odds Player (Team) Odds
Pete Alonso (Mets) -200 Ronald Acuna Jr (Braves) +170
Player (Team) Odds Player (Team) Odds
Juan Soto (Nationals) -180 Jose Ramirez (Guardians) +150
Player (Team) Odds Player (Team) Odds
Julio Rodriguez (Mariners) -140 Corey Seager (Rangers) +140
Player (Team) Odds Player (Team) Odds
Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) -350 Albert Pujols (Cardinals) +270

Odds as of July 17 at Caesars Sportsbook. See available Caesars Sportsbook.

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Rodriguez is the first rookie to participate in the event since Alonso and Vladimir Guerrero of the Toronto Blue Jays met in the 2019 final. However, Seager does have home-field advantage from his Dodgers days in his corner.

With 22 homers this season, he’s four shy of equaling his career high. At a price of +140, take the value offered by Seager.

Corey Seager (Rangers) over Julio Rodriguez (Mariners) +140

 

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