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Machado More Than a Rental for Dodgers? 2019 Free Agency Odds

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in MLB Baseball

Updated Mar 31, 2020 · 9:59 AM PDT

Manny Machado as a Baltimore Oriole
Manny Machado was just acquired by the Los Angeles Dodgers, but is set to become a free agent at the end of the season. Will he stay in LA? Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr)
  • The Dodgers acquired Manny Machado on July 18 for five players
  • Acquiring Machado moved LA into a tie with the Cubs as NL favorites for the World Series
  • Machado headlines a star-studded free agent class for the upcoming offseason; and odds are out on whether he stays with the Dodgers

UPDATE: July 23, 2018

Will Machado open the 2019 season with Dodgers? Odds
YES +375
NO -550

Manny Machado is now a Los Angeles Dodger, and his impact was immediately felt in the World Series odds.

While it will be months before we know if he was enough to put the Dodgers over the top, our attention can now shift to the offseason. Not only is he a high-priced rental, but Macahdo is part of a free agent class that includes some pretty elite names.

He and Bryce Harper are the headliners.

Can the Dodgers Keep Manny Machado Around?

Once the dust settles on the baseball season, all eyes will turn to LA to find out if Machado’s stay will be longer than five months.

Right now, odds don’t see him staying.

Will Machado open the 2019 season with Dodgers? Odds
YES +500
NO -800

It makes sense too. Both of Machado’s primary positions, shortstop and third base, are filled for the foreseeable future in LA. Corey Seager should be back from Tommy John surgery next year, and the shortstop still has his arbitration-eligible years ahead of him. As good as Machado is, unless the Dodgers can swindle another team out of an equally-talented asset, Seager is staying put.

Then there’s Justin Turner. A free agent in 2016, Turner re-upped with the Dodgers for four years and $64 million. The biggest years on that deal are still to come. The first two pay him $12 and $11 million, respectively, while he makes $18 and $19 million in the last two.

The presence of Seager and Turner doesn’t prevent the Dodgers from handing Machado a massive contract though. Far from it.

The first hurdle that would take plenty of teams out of the running would be money. The Dodgers have plenty of that. Then it’s finding a position for him. Despite the huge price tag, you may be able to find a landing spot for Turner if they want to move out his contract. That opens up third.

If they don’t want to move Turner, Seager could be in for a position change. It was something that was debated when his elbow was ailing him, and makes sense now. You get Turner for two more seasons at third, with Machado at short for those two years. In the meantime, you ease Seager back in with the shorter throws from second.

If Machado is so good the Dodgers decide they can’t let him leave, they’ll find a way to get it done.

Could Manny Machado Blow into the Windy City?

After their reported interest in the former Oriole, let’s pair the Chicago Cubs up with their cross-town rivals.

The Cubs’ interest was centered on sending Addison Russell back the other way. Russell is a good shortstop, and at just 24 still hasn’t reached his ceiling. Machado as more than a rental seems iffy for the Cubs, with Russell, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez already starring on their infield.

2024 World Series Odds Tracker
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On the other side of the city is where the interest really picks up. In April, there was a report the White Sox were a dark horse to sign Machado. They have the money and the space on the infield. Tim Anderson has enjoyed an increase in power this season, but he’s not a roadblock for Machado. Even if he’s just two years into his new extension. The White Sox’ system is loaded with pitchers and outfielders. There’s no sure-fire shortstop prospect Machado would block if he signed with the Sox.

Figuring out The Field

Whatever seasons Rafael Devers and Miguel Andujar are enjoying, you have to think the Yankees and Red Sox will at least reach out this winter. Machado may very well end up in either city too. It will just run counter to his plan to market himself as an elite shortstop.

Neither team has ever shown an aversion from chasing a big name, even if they’ve got that position filled. Devers and Andujar are young, controllable pieces. Their teams can either find them new positions, or move them. Someone will want them. With Didi Gregorius two years away from free agency, there’s a small chance Machado could play his trade at short in the Big Apple.

The Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, and St. Louis Cardinals all provide interesting options too. All have vacancies and all have had reported interest in the slugger. The Braves would get to keep a young, talented core intact with the signing. They also provide excellent long-term potential. He also provides an upgrade for the Phillies at either short or third.

Atlanta and St. Louis were also thought of as potential suitors for Josh Donaldson. With the former MVP battling a quad injury this season, both could enter the fray for Manny Machado’s services.

Odds to Sign Machado in 2019

Team Odds
Yankees 3-1
Dodgers 4-1
Phillies 4-1
Braves 5-1
Red Sox 11-1
FIELD 9-1

The picture around Manny Machado is still murky. And with a loaded free agent class, it’s hard to know which free agents each team will covet. But we like the Dodgers’ odds of re-signing him more than the books do.

New York and Boston have the money, while the Braves and Phillies have bright futures.

The Dodgers have a whole season to convince Machado to stick around. They also have the money, and a feasible solution to either get them to the end of Justin Turner’s contract, or move it.

All things being equal, that extra time may be key in keeping him around if the bright lights of New York don’t draw him in.

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