AL Pennant Odds Fade for Twins and Rays; Can Anyone Challenge the Yankees & Astros?
- The Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins are slumping at the wrong time
- Both starting staffs have struggled recently, while the Rays just lost Blake Snell to injury
- Do either have staying power in the AL Pennant race?
When it comes to the World Series and the AL and NL Pennants odds, the old adage rings true: baseball is a marathon, not a sprint.
The Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Rays are finding that out the hard way. While the Yankees and Astros are running away with the American league, these two, who were thought to be contenders, continue to slide.
A number of factors are at play, but one thing’s for sure. If they don’t figure it out soon, they could fall too far back to recover.
2019 AL Pennant Odds
Team | Record | Games Back of AL Wild Card | Odds |
---|---|---|---|
New York Yankees | 67-38 | N/A | +160 |
Houston Astros | 68-39 | N/A | +170 |
Minnesota Twins | 64-41 | N/A | +600 |
Cleveland Indians | 62-43 | +3 | +750 |
Oakland Athletics | 60-47 | – | +1800 |
Tampa Bay Rays | 60-48 | 0.5 | +1400 |
Boston Red Sox | 59-48 | 1.0 | +1100 |
Los Angeles Angels | 55-52 | 5.0 | +5000 |
Texas Rangers | 53-53 | 6.5 | +8000 |
*Odds and standings as of 07/29/2019.
Right now it looks as though things will be coming down to a Yankees vs Astros showdown.
If you’ve been keeping up with the AL Pennant odds all season, then you’ve seen the Twins’ recent struggles in numerical form. On June 3rd, they were at +340, since then they’ve steadily fallen to +650.
For the Rays, they were +530 at the beginning of May. Now they’re at +1400, and they’ve lost Blake Snell, the reigning AL Cy Young winner.
Blake Snell a Big Loss in AL Pennant Race
All indications are that Snell should be back in September, which is the good news.
#Rays dealing with these injuries:
J. Alvarado 10-day IL
Y. Diaz 10-day IL
K. Kiermaier 10-day IL
B. Lowe 10-day IL
D. Robertson 10-day IL
B. Snell 10-day IL
R. Stanek 10-day IL
T. Glasnow 60-day IL
Still 11 games over .500, but need guys to step up big time.— Mat Germain (@Mat_Germain_) July 27, 2019
The bad news, is that the Rays are 4-6 over their last 10, and are hovering in and out of a Wild Card spot.
While the injury is devastating, it just shines a brighter spotlight on a Rays’ pitching staff that has struggled since the break.
Tampa Bay Rays Pitching Pre and Post All-Star Break
Time Frame | ERA | WHIP | OPP AVG | K | BB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pre All-Star Break | 3.32 (1) | 1.15 (3) | .224 (3) | 878 (3) | 267 (7) |
Post All-Star Break | 4.76 (18) | 1.25 (8) | .243 (8) | 170 (3) | 46 (8) |
*MLB Rank listed in (Brackets)
The differences are small, but it explains why Tampa has yo-yoed in and out of a playoff spot. After going 52-39 in the first half of the season, they’re 8-9.
And that was with Snell toting around a 6-7 record and a 4.28 ERA.
Blake Snell is set to have surgery on his left elbow and @StevePhillipsGM discussed how severe his injury is for the long-term. #RaysUp pic.twitter.com/XZlH8v8nxz
— Stadium (@Stadium) July 26, 2019
The Rays have survived so far without Tyler Glasnow. But Kevin Cash will have to pull off one nifty magic trick to keep the Rays in the Wild Card race without Snell, and one of their key openers Ryne Stanek.
Minnesota Twins Slowing Down in AL Pennant Chase
The Twins can’t pin anything on a growing injury list.
For them it simply seems like their red-hot start has caught up to them.
Minnesota Twins Month-by-Month Breakdown
Month | Record | Win% | Run Differential |
---|---|---|---|
March | 2-1 | .667 | +7 |
April | 15-9 | .625 | +10 |
May | 21-8 | .724 | 86 |
June | 15-12 | .556 | +10 |
July | 11-11 | .500 | +12 |
Their record is a by-product of a softer American League. The Twins are 25-20 against the seven teams in the AL either in a playoff spot, or five games out of the Wild Card.
Meaning they’re 39-21 against the other AL teams, with six of those clubs well-below .500.
Twins Starters in July
Pitcher | Record | ERA | WHIP |
---|---|---|---|
Jose Berrios | 1-1 | 3.18 | 1.46 |
Kyle Gibson | 2-0 | 3.77 | 1.40 |
Martin Perez | 1-1 | 5.32 | 1.55 |
Michael Pineda | 2-1 | 2.59 | 1.15 |
Jake Odorizzi | 1-2 | 9.35 | 1.85 |
July has not been kind to the Twins’ starters either. Jose Berrios’ July ERA is his second highest in a single month this year (although that’s saying something), while his WHIP is his highest.
Michael Pineda is the only starter who isn’t posting a season-worst WHIP or ERA in July.
While this doesn’t doom the Twins hopes of a spot in the playoffs, it makes you wonder how long they’ll stick around in October.
Assuming Berrios maintains his form and Pineda has steadied himself, two of those three names have to step up in the ALDS and ALCS.
And the bats of both the Astros and Yankees may not give them a chance.
Are Either Worth Betting for AL Pennant?
Right now, no. If we’re taking a big picture view, then keeping track of the Rays past the trade deadline and into August will be key.
If Tampa Bay is able to figure out a way to keep their heads above water, then Blake Snell could solidify their playoff push. And it would be an even bigger bonus if Tyler Glasnow comes back.
But right now, it’s a two-horse race between the Yankees and the Astros for the AL Pennant.