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AL Pennant Odds Fade for Twins and Rays; Can Anyone Challenge the Yankees & Astros?

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in MLB Baseball

Updated Jan 5, 2023 · 8:44 AM PST

Blake Snell pitching for the Tampa Bay Rays
With Blake Snell going on the shelf, can the Rays stay afloat in the AL Pennant race? Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire.
  • The Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins are slumping at the wrong time
  • Both starting staffs have struggled recently, while the Rays just lost Blake Snell to injury
  • Do either have staying power in the AL Pennant race?

When it comes to the World Series and the AL and NL Pennants odds, the old adage rings true: baseball is a marathon, not a sprint.

The Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Rays are finding that out the hard way. While the Yankees and Astros are running away with the American league, these two, who were thought to be contenders, continue to slide.

A number of factors are at play, but one thing’s for sure. If they don’t figure it out soon, they could fall too far back to recover.

2019 AL Pennant Odds

Team Record Games Back of AL Wild Card Odds
New York Yankees 67-38 N/A +160
Houston Astros 68-39 N/A +170
Minnesota Twins 64-41 N/A +600
Cleveland Indians 62-43 +3 +750
Oakland Athletics 60-47 +1800
Tampa Bay Rays 60-48 0.5 +1400
Boston Red Sox 59-48 1.0 +1100
Los Angeles Angels 55-52 5.0 +5000
Texas Rangers 53-53 6.5 +8000

*Odds and standings  as of 07/29/2019.

Right now it looks as though things will be coming down to a Yankees vs Astros showdown.

If you’ve been keeping up with the AL Pennant odds all season, then you’ve seen the Twins’ recent struggles in numerical form. On June 3rd, they were at +340, since then they’ve steadily fallen to +650.

For the Rays, they were +530 at the beginning of May. Now they’re at +1400, and they’ve lost Blake Snell, the reigning AL Cy Young winner.

Blake Snell a Big Loss in AL Pennant Race

All indications are that Snell should be back in September, which is the good news.

The bad news, is that the Rays are 4-6 over their last 10, and are hovering in and out of a Wild Card spot.

While the injury is devastating, it just shines a brighter spotlight on a Rays’ pitching staff that has struggled since the break.

Tampa Bay Rays Pitching Pre and Post All-Star Break

Time Frame ERA WHIP OPP AVG K BB
Pre All-Star Break 3.32 (1) 1.15 (3) .224 (3) 878 (3) 267 (7)
Post All-Star Break 4.76 (18) 1.25 (8) .243 (8) 170 (3) 46 (8)

*MLB Rank listed in (Brackets)

The differences are small, but it explains why Tampa has yo-yoed in and out of a playoff spot. After going 52-39 in the first half of the season, they’re 8-9.

And that was with Snell toting around a 6-7 record and a 4.28 ERA.

The Rays have survived so far without Tyler Glasnow. But Kevin Cash will have to pull off one nifty magic trick to keep the Rays in the Wild Card race without Snell, and one of their key openers Ryne Stanek.

Minnesota Twins Slowing Down in AL Pennant Chase

The Twins can’t pin anything on a growing injury list.

For them it simply seems like their red-hot start has caught up to them.

Minnesota Twins Month-by-Month Breakdown

Month Record Win% Run Differential
March 2-1 .667 +7
April 15-9 .625 +10
May 21-8 .724 86
June 15-12 .556 +10
July 11-11 .500 +12

Their record is a by-product of a softer American League. The Twins are 25-20 against the seven teams in the AL either in a playoff spot, or five games out of the Wild Card.

Meaning they’re 39-21 against the other AL teams, with six of those clubs well-below .500.

Twins Starters in July

Pitcher Record ERA WHIP
Jose Berrios 1-1 3.18 1.46
Kyle Gibson 2-0 3.77 1.40
Martin Perez 1-1 5.32 1.55
Michael Pineda 2-1 2.59 1.15
Jake Odorizzi 1-2 9.35 1.85

July has not been kind to the Twins’ starters either. Jose Berrios’ July ERA is his second highest in a single month this year (although that’s saying something), while his WHIP is his highest.

Michael Pineda is the only starter who isn’t posting a season-worst WHIP or ERA in July.

While this doesn’t doom the Twins hopes of a spot in the playoffs, it makes you wonder how long they’ll stick around in October.

Assuming Berrios maintains his form and Pineda has steadied himself, two of those three names have to step up in the ALDS and ALCS.

And the bats of both the Astros and Yankees may not give them a chance.

Are Either Worth Betting for AL Pennant?

Right now, no. If we’re taking a big picture view, then keeping track of the Rays past the trade deadline and into August will be key.

If Tampa Bay is able to figure out a way to keep their heads above water, then Blake Snell could solidify their playoff push. And it would be an even bigger bonus if Tyler Glasnow comes back.

But right now, it’s a two-horse race between the Yankees and the Astros for the AL Pennant.

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