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Twins vs Guardians Odds, & Picks (June 30)

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in MLB Baseball

Jun 29, 2022 · 8:59 PM PDT

Twins vs Guardians Odds
Jun 29, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Minnesota Twins left fielder Alex Kirilloff (19) celebrates his two-run home run with designated hitter Gary Sanchez (24) in the sixth inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Cleveland Guardians are -155 home favorites in an American League afternoon game against the Minnesota Twins on Thursday. June 30
  • Cleveland is the only MLB team in the top five in ROI on both moneyline (3rd-9.35%) and spread (4th-11.52%) wagering
  • All of the Twins vs Guardians odds and best bets are analyzed in the story below

Lately, the Minnesota Twins (43-35, 20-18 away) and Cleveland Guardians (38-34, 18-15 home) are trending in opposite directions. Minnesota has won five of the last seven games. Cleveland, meanwhile, has dropped six of the past seven outings.

Head to head, the Twins are holding the recent edge. Minnesota has won three of five overall from the Guardians. At Cleveland, the Twins are 6-3 straight up in the past nine games.

However, it’s the Guardians who oddsmakers are going with in Thursday’s finale of this four-game series. Cleveland is a -155 home favorite. Minnesota is a solid 8-5 SU as a road underdog this season.

Twins vs Guardians Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Minnesota Twins +130 +1.5 (-155) O 8.5 (-115)
Cleveland Guardians -155 -1.5 (+130) U 8.5 (-105)

Odds as of June 29th at Caesars Sportsbook.



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First pitch for this game at Progressive Field on Thursday, June 30 is set for 1:10 pm ET. Sunny skies, 10 mph wind and a temperature of 89 degrees are in the forecast.

Given the favored moneyline odds of -155, the Guardians are being assigned an implied probability of victory of 60.78%. Bet $10 on them to win and a successful wager returns a payout of $16.50.

In the MLB betting trends, the Twins  are the +115 second betting choice in the AL Central odds. Cleveland is being given +1200 odds to win the division. Both the Twins (+4500) and Guardians (+6500) are longshots in the World Series odds.

Minnesota vs Cleveland Probable Pitchers

Twins right-hander Chris Archer is seeking to complete a stellar month of June in which he’s gone 2-1 with a 1.57 ERA in five starts. Archer has held opposing batters to a .169 average during the month while allowing just four earned runs over 23 innings pitched.

Archer has pitched well on the road, posting a 2.76 ERA in seven starts. But he’s 0-1. Archer is 0-4 all-time at Progressive Field with a 6.35 ERA.

Overall, he’s 0-7 against the Guardians with a 5.87 ERA. Cleveland’s .863 OPS against Archer is the highest he’s allowed to an AL club.

Archer vs Bieber

Chris Archer
Shane Bieber
2-3 Record 3-4
3.14 ERA 3.07
4.86 xERA 4.01
1.22 WHIP 1.17
1.88 SO/W Ratio 4.40

Two years removed from his AL Cy Young Award win, it would be wrong to suggest that Cleveland right-hander Shane Bieber is slumping. However, he won’t be registering in this year’s AL Cy Young  odds, either.

Bieber is 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA in five June starts. At home this year, he’s 1-3 with a 4.23 ERA in five starts. He faced the Twins at Minnesota on May 14. Bieber allowed one earned run on a solo homer over seven innings and didn’t figure in the decision.

He’s a solid 5-1 with a 3.46 ERA in 13 career appearances against Minnesota, including 12 starts. At Progressive Field, he’s 3-0 with a 3.75 ERA when facing the Twins.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Guardians Batters Batting Average vs Archer Twins Batters Batting Average vs Bieber
Ernie Clement .000 Luis Arraez .300
Andres Gimenez .000 Byron Buxton .300
Steven Kwan .000 Gilberto Celestino .333
Sandy Leon .000 Carlos Correa .333
Luke Maile .000 Kyle Garlick .000
Owen Miller .000 Nick Gordon .333
Josh Naylor .000 Ryan Jeffers .200
Richie Palacios .000 Max Kepler .276
Jose Ramirez .417 Alex Kirilloff .500
Franmil Reyes .000 Jose Miranda .000
Amed Rosario .400 Jorge Polanco .269
Myles Straw .000 Gary Sanchez .500
Gio Urshela .167

Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez is 5-for-12 (.417) with a home run and two RBI when facing Archer. Amed Rosario is 2-for-5 (.400) with an RBI.

Several Twins batters show good success at the plate when up against Bieber. Gary Sanchez and Alex Kirilloff are both 1-for-2 (.500). Carlos Correa is 2-for-6 (.33) with a homer and two RBI. Gilberto Celestino (1-for-3) and Nick Gordon (1-for-3) are also hitting .333. Byron Buxton is 3-for-10 (.300) with a homer and two RBI. AL batting leader Luis Arraez is also hitting .300 (6-for-20) against Bieber.

Twins vs Guardians Prediction

Yes, the Twins are playing better of late than Cleveland. Sure, Minnesota is leading the AL Central. But there are two telling stats in this game that are hard to overlook.

Bieber has never lost at home to the Twins. Archer has never beaten the Guardians anywhere.

Expecting both of of those trends to change on the same day might be too hopeful of an ask.

Pick: Cleveland Guardians ML (-155)


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