UFC Edmonton Main Card Predictions & Lines – Buckley vs Malott Picks

• The UFC heads to Edmonton for a pivotal welterweight main event at Rogers Place
• Mike Malott is a short home favorite, while Joaquin Buckley sits as a live underdog
• Read below for my expert Buckley vs Malott predictions, picks and odds

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The Octagon travels to Rogers Place in Edmonton, with the UFC Edmonton main card kicking off at 8:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+. Canada’s Mike Malott headlines the main card as a five round main event against Joaquin Buckley.

Both welterweights need a statement win to climb the rankings, and the hometown crowd will be firmly behind Malott, who headlines his second fight card in his home country.

Let’s dive into my favorite UFC Edmonton main card predictions, best bets and long-shot picks headlined by Buckley vs Malott.

UFC Edmonton Main Card Odds

Malott is a modest -133 favorite at home, which makes the main event the one moneyline on this card I am comfortable laying. Cristian Perez (-385), Erin Blanchfield (-357) and Mandel Nallo (-303) all carry heavy juice, so my plays in those fights move into the method markets.

Barriault vs Daukaus at +170/-208 and Jourdain vs Cuamba at -189/+155 are the tightest of the remaining lines, and both set up better as prop plays than straight sides. If you would rather trade fight outcomes than bet them, compare the best prediction market apps before the main card starts.

UFC Edmonton Main Card Predictions

Buckley vs Malott Best Bet: Mike Malott Moneyline

• UFC Edmonton Main Card Pick #1: Mike Malott Moneyline (-133 at BetMGM)

Malott is three inches taller, and that frame matters against Buckley’s difficulty getting inside on long strikers. I also trust Malott’s recent improvement more than Buckley’s current trajectory, especially with this fight scheduled for five rounds.

Malott’s last three wins include a decision over Kevin Holland, a knockout of Charles Radtke and a knockout of Gilbert Burns. He landed 49 significant strikes at 51.58 percent against Holland, then connected on 36 of 61 against Radtke and 56 of 121 against Burns.

Although Malott is a superb grappler, he is not a great wrestler, which has been Buckley’s Achilles heel. Still, he is a much better striker than he gets credit for, and Buckley has struggled against taller strikers who throw straight punches down the center line.

Buckley still has real power, as his 2024 knockout wins over Stephen Thompson and Andre Fialho show, but his striking arsenal can be limited when fighters do not engage in the pocket battle he wants. Buckley was losing to Thompson before the knockout due to his struggles getting past the length and long-range striking of ‘Wonderboy.’

Whenever Buckley struggles on the feet, he turns to his own wrestling, but that will not be available for him against a grappler like Malott. Buckley has one path to victory, which is a big one, but Malott has more tools at his disposal over 25 minutes.

Blanchfield vs Jasudavicius Pick: Erin Blanchfield by Decision

• UFC Edmonton Main Card Pick #2: Erin Blanchfield by Decision (-149 at BetMGM)

Both women want to grapple and use physical strength to win positions, with Erin Blanchfield being the more aggressive and complete striker. The size edge belongs to Jasmine Jasudavicius, yet that does not erase Blanchfield’s ability to create more offense at range and force exchanges.

While Blanchfield has improved her striking in recent years, the same cannot be said about Jasudavicius. Blanchfield landed 110 significant strikes against Rose Namajunas in a five round decision and added two takedowns with 8:54 of control time. Her improvements were most obvious in her recent win over Tracy Cortez, in which she dealt more damage on the feet before securing the submission.

Jasudavicius brings serious control, including 8:09 against Karine Silva and 7:11 against Mayra Bueno Silva. But in previous matchups against elite grapplers, Jasudavicius has been stuffed and out-worked on the feet in a way she cannot compete.

In a matchup that could see both fighters’ Plan A neutralized, the younger Blanchfield has more to fall back on.

Nelson vs Perez Pick: Cristian Perez by KO/TKO

• UFC Edmonton Main Card Pick #3: Cristian Perez by KO/TKO (+100 at BetMGM)

Perez has leaned on his striking since his loss to Manoel Sousa, and I expect that urgency to create problems for Nelson. I do not love every part of the debutant’s striking, but his pressure is disruptive, and Nelson has folded before when opponents made the fight chaotic.

One year after losing to Sousa, Perez rebounded with a knockout win over Logan Paxton, landing 46 significant strikes and scoring a knockdown.

While Perez has been working his way into the promotion, Nelson has gone 1-2 in his last three fights with knockout losses to Steve Garcia and Terrance McKinney. In both losses, Nelson was simply overwhelmed with pressure and finished on the ground.

If Perez gets on top, his ground and pound is lethal enough to end this quickly. At even money, the knockout prop is a far better way to back him than the -385 moneyline.

Barriault vs Daukaus Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds

• UFC Edmonton Main Card Pick #4: Over 1.5 Rounds (-135 at BetMGM)

Daukaus and Barriault are very different fighters, but they share a common weakness in their durability and chin strength. Luckily for both, neither is known as a one-punch knockout artist against quality competition.

In fights when he is not stopped standing, Daukaus tends to force grappling exchanges and drag fights into deep waters. The 33-year-old has a 1.97 takedown average despite not landing one in his last five UFC fights.

Barriault was submitted only once in his UFC run, and that came late in a grinding loss to Anthony Hernandez. I expect enough resistance from both men to push this into the second half of the fight.

UFC Edmonton Long-Shot Pick: Louis Jourdain by KO/TKO

• UFC Edmonton Main Card Pick #5: Louis Jourdain by KO/TKO or Submission (+170 at BetMGM)

Timmy Cuamba has the skills to compete in the UFC, but his durability remains a big concern. He has already absorbed two knockdowns in his three UFC losses heading into a fight against Jourdain’s 67 percent finish rate.

Cuamba did score a knockout over Roberto Romero, and he later landed 23 of 32 significant strikes in a decision win over Chang Ho Lee. Still, he has never handled clean shots well and now faces arguably the most dynamic and powerful striker of his career.

Jourdain has real finishing instincts, and when he hurts someone he attacks like a shark smelling blood. At plus money, I like Jourdain’s odds to hurt Cuamba and close the show early with the crowd behind him.

Nallo vs Landwehr Pick: Mandel Nallo by KO/TKO

• UFC Edmonton Main Card Pick #6: Mandel Nallo by KO/TKO (-149 at BetMGM)

This fight is almost guaranteed to be a wild barnburner. Neither Mandel Nallo nor Nate Landwehr knows how to fight in any other way, but that only favors the Canadian in the main card opener.

Landwehr is moving up to lightweight after three straight knockout losses, and his durability is not where it was earlier in his career. His last two defeats were especially damaging, with Cub Swanson stopping him in the first round and Morgan Charriere finishing him in the third.

Landwehr will still fight fire with fire, and Nallo will happily oblige. Although Nallo is also coming off a knockout loss, he was much closer to beating Jai Herbert than Landwehr was in either of his last three outings.

Both fighters are well-known for their defensive avoidance and instead preferring to walk through punches to land shots of their own. Only Nallo still has the durability to pull that off at this point in their careers.