Can a Defensive-Minded Player Win Finals MVP? George, Holiday, Capela, Ayton & Beverley Are Bets Worth Considering

• It has been six years since Andre Iguodala won the NBA Finals MVP award for his defense. Could we see it happen again in 2021?
• All four remaining NBA teams have at least one excellent defender that could be a candidate should they make the Finals
• What is the best wagering strategy to use “defense” as your operative thought in looking ahead to the NBA Finals? A blueprint is explained below

Every coach and every commentator who has played in the NBA, and every casual fan has heard the expression before: “Defense wins championships.” But can defense win an NBA Finals MVP?

It does not happen often, but it happens. Six years ago, Andre Iguodala of the Golden State Warriors locked up LeBron James of the Cleveland Cavaliers and won the award despite averaging just 7.8 points per game. He remains the only NBA player ever to win the award while averaging less than 10 points in a championship series.

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This year, things are different. We have four teams remaining, none of which have won a championship since the 1970s. The Hawks have not won one since they were in St. Louis; the Bucks have not won one since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was making sky hooks; the Clippers have never won one period; and the Phoenix Suns have only been to the finals twice, losing both times, the last when Charles Barkley was on their team and competing against Michael Jordan.

So if we expect the unexpected, there are ways to capitalize big-time with the way the odds are set as we near the end of June.

2021 NBA Finals MVP Odds

Odds as of June 29th

What Would It Take for a Defender to Win Finals MVP?

To borrow a word from the pandemic, it would take a “lockdown.”

If the Bucks make the finals, somebody is going to have to lock down Giannis Antetokounmpo. Either that, or he is going to have such an extreme case of the yips at the free throw line that he costs himself and his team the series.

If the Hawks make the finals, somebody is going to have to lock down Trae Young, who is the NBA’s best villain since Reggie Miller.

If the Clippers make the finals, somebody is going to have to lock down Paul George, who was extraordinary last night with 41 points on 15-for-20 shooting as the Suns lost at home and the Clippers stayed alive yet again.

And if the Suns make the finals, it is going to be a matter of locking down three guys: Chris Paul, Devin Booker and DeAndre Ayton. A bunch of guys on the list above are capable, but the only two who made NBA All-Defensive First Team were Holiday and the Greek Freak.

The best of last night's WIN!! pic.twitter.com/yNYvFgBWN9

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) June 28, 2021

What Statistical Benchmarks Would a Defender Need to Achieve?

None, actually. The eye don’t lie, as they say, and winning this award would be a product of doing such an exceptional job on the defensive end that the voters – a media panel usually comprised of 12 broadcasters and reporters – would have no choice but to say “This guy made all the difference for the winners.”

Defense is usually quantified by steals and blocks, but there are other statistics that are charted by coaches and stat geeks. Stuff like charges drawn, deflections, defensive win shares. The top three  league leaders in that last category this past season were Rudy Gobert of Utah, Julius Randle of New York and Nerlens Noel of New York.

But as we look into our crystal balls we have to imagine which of the remaining players can pull an Iguodala. The most likely is George, who gets the job done on both sides of the ball but must lead the Clippers to two more victories in the Western Conference finals after Los Angeles fell into a 3-1 hole. At +900, he is the best bet on the board if the Clippers can climb out of an 0-2 hole for the third straight series.

The best way for this one to come to fruition would be for the Clippers to play the Bucks, and for George to get the assignment on Giannis. Marcus Morris Sr. would presumably get the assignment on Khris Middleton, and Patrick Beverley would be assigned to Reggie Jackson/Rajon Rondo.

Of those three Clippers, George is the only superstar. And that carries a ton of weight among media members who will be voting.

One for the books. pic.twitter.com/DZXPGLEMEU

— LA Clippers (@LAClippers) June 29, 2021

How Is This Best Approached from a Wagering Standpoint?

That is easy. With the odds as high as they are, lay equal amounts on all of the players who are capable of being the next Iguodala. Those players are George, Holiday, Ayton, Capela and Beverley, who is +50000.

Ayton is a sleeping giant, who can get the better of Brook Lopez if the Suns play the Bucks or Capela if the Hawks win the East. And Capela is a nice pick because he can do the same thing to Ayton if we have Suns-Hawks. If it is Atlanta-Los Angeles, Ayton will be better than whoever ends up playing center for the Clippers, either Ivica Zubac if he recovers from his sprained MCL or DeMarcus Cousins if Ty Lue decides to play him major minutes.

If you think like a coach and think like a voter, you have the wagering edge here. Place your bets while the odds are long. And make sure Beverley is among them. He is +50000, which is rock-solid flyer material for a guy who competes as hard on the defensive end as any of the 450 players in the NBA.