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Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors Predictions, Player Props & Odds (Feb. 25)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in NBA Basketball

Updated Feb 25, 2024 · 10:10 AM PST

Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry poses in front of the Denver Nuggets bench
Jan 4, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) reacts after hitting a three-point shot against the Denver Nuggets during the second half at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
  • Both looking to improve to 3-0 since the All-Star break, the Denver Nuggets visit the Golden State Warriors on Sunday
  • The Warriors have won four straight at home
  • See the Nuggets vs Warriors predictions, player props, and odds on Feb. 25, 2024

Two teams that are still perfect post-All-Star break meet in San Francisco tonight as the Golden State Warriors (29-26, 16-14 home, 30-24-1 ATS) host the Denver Nuggets (38-19, 16-14 away, 24-31-2 ATS) at the Chase Center at 4:10 pm PT/7:10 pm ET.

With the Warriors looking a lot more like the NBA title contender most expected them to be over the past three weeks, oddsmakers give the Dubs a slight edge in Sunday’s Nuggets vs Warriors odds.

Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Denver Nuggets +2 (-110) +110 Over 230.5 (-108)
Golden State Warriors -2 (-110) -130 Under 230.5 (-112)

Golden State is listed at -2 against the spread and -130 on the moneyline to win straight-up. Denver comes back as a +110 road underdog in Sunday’s NBA odds. The game total is sitting at 230.5. The Nuggets (22-35 O/U) have been the second-best under bet in the league this season (only Miami has a higher under rate at 21-35), while Golden State has trended to the over (30-25 O/U).

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Odds as of Feb. 25 at DraftKings. Get a DraftKings promo code to use on Sunday’s NBA action. 

If the postseason started today, the Nuggets would hold the #4 seed in the West in the NBA playoff bracket and would meet the #5 New Orleans Pelicans in round one. The Warriors would have an extremely difficult road to hoe as the #10 seed. They would travel to Los Angeles to visit the Lakers in the 9-vs-10 Play-In Game and would need to win two straight on the road just to reach the first round proper.

Golden State Makes It Eight of Nine

With two wins coming out of the All-Star break (128-110 vs LAL and 97-85 vs CHA), the Warriors have now won eight of their past nine games to move four clear of the Utah Jazz for the #10 seed in the West and just half a game back of the #9 LA Lakers.

Golden State’s 97-84 victory over Charlotte last time out was its best defensive performance this season. It was also the first time since Jan. 23, 2022, that the Warriors won a game while failing to score 100 points. The Warriors held the Hornets to a ludicrous 36.4% shooting from the floor (32-of-88) and 28.2% from three (11-of-39) while sending Charlotte to the free-throw line just 11 times. Golden State’s offense wasn’t much better (42.7% from the field) but coupled with a massive edge in rebounding (53-43), it was good enough to breeze past the lowly Hornets.

The game prior, Golden State’s first after the All-Star break, followed a much different script. The Warriors routed the Lakers 128-110 on the strength of 16 threes, including six from Steph Curry, who finished with a game-high 32 points and eight assists.

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Golden State now sits eighth in the league in Offensive Rating (117.8) and is steadily moving up the board in that category, Charlotte game notwithstanding. Since the return of Draymond Green from suspension, the Dubs’ defense has also been improving. It’s now in the top 20 (115.9, 18th).

The only player listed on Golden State’s injury report for Sunday is Chris Paul, who hasn’t played since Jan. 5 due to a hand injury.

Denver Crushes Weak Competition to Break Losing Streak

The All-Star break was a welcome sight for the Nuggets, who lost three in a row before the hiatus (135-106 at Sacramento, 112-95 at Milwaukee, and 102-96 vs Sacramento). Their schedule was favorable coming out of the break, hosting Washington (a 130-110 win) on Thursday before visiting Portland (a 127-112 win) on Friday.

Michael Porter Jr led the team in scoring in both games, dropping 22 against the Wizards and 34 against the Blazers. Nikola Jokic, the favorite in the NBA MVP odds, consolidated that status with ridiculous back-to-back triple-doubles. Jokic had 21 points, 19 rebounds, and 15 assists against Washington, and 29 points, 15 rebounds, and 14 assists against Portland.

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Denver remains a phenomenal 22-5 at home this year, but is just 16-14 on the road. Thanks to their road struggles, they rank just 12th in O-Rating (117.4) and ninth in Net Rating (+3.8). The team finished fifth and sixth, respectively, in those categories last season.

DEN vs GSW Player Props

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Aaron Gordon (DEN) 15.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 6.5 (Ov +114 | Un -145) 2.5 (Ov -166 | Un +130) 0.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135)
Andrew Wiggins (GSW) 12.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 4.5 (Ov +110 | Un -140) OFF 1.5 (Ov +150 | Un -195)
Brandin Podziemski 12.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 5.5 (Ov -145 | Un +114) 4.5 (Ov -145 | Un +114) 1.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135)
Draymond Green 7.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 6.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) 5.5 (Ov  -130 | Un -100) 0.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
 Jamal Murray 20.5 (Ov -145 | Un +114) 3.5 (Ov -130 | Un -100) 7.5 (Ov -145 | Un +114) 2.5 (Ov +114 | Un -145)
Jonathan Kuminga 16.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 5.5 (Ov +110 | Un -140) 2.5 (Ov -130 | Un -100) 0.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 9.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 2.5 (Ov -100 | Un -130) OFF 1.5 (Ov +135 | Un -175)
Klay Thompson 11.5 (Ov -140 | Un +110) 2.5 (Ov +124 | Un -160) OFF 2.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Michael Porter Jr 18.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 6.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) OFF 2.5 (Ov -160 | Un +124)
Nikola Jokic 26.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 12.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 9.5 (Ov -130 | Un -100) 1.5 (Ov +140 | Un -180)
Steph Curry 26.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 3.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) 5.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 4.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)

Player props from DraftKings app. See the latest on the DraftKings app in North Carolina

Curry and Jokic both have a game-high point total of 26.5, with Jokic boasting slightly shorter odds to hit the over (-125 vs -110). As he often does, Jokic also has the highest rebound total (12.5) and assist total (9.5) on the board in today’s NBA player props for Nuggets/Warriors.

Nuggets vs Warriors Prediction

Denver isn’t a bad road team, but they are a significantly different road team compared to their dominance at home. Denver’s play entering the break was languid and the team still isn’t fully healthy. Both Jamal  Murray (shin) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (finger) are listed as questionable in Sunday’s NBA lineups.

Golden State, meanwhile, has won four straight at the Chase Center (76ers, Suns, Lakers, Hornets), is fully healthy except for Paul, and is finally figuring out how to fit its puzzle of a lineup together.

DEN vs GSW pick: Warriors -2 (-110)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NBA betting record:

  • 17-20 moneyline (+5.06 units)
  • 12-11-2 ATS (+1.04 units)
  • 7-13 player props (-7.82 units)
  • 0-3 same-game parlay (-3.00 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise 

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