Sixers Championship Odds Fade to +5500 With Ben Simmons Out for Season After Knee Surgery

• The Philadelphia 76ers have seen their NBA Championship odds fade to +5500 following news of Ben Simmons’ knee surgery
• Simmons limped off the court in the Sixers’ win over the Washington Wizards last Wednesday and had surgery to clean up loose bodies on Monday
• How will Simmons’ absence impact the Sixers chase towards a title?

The Philadelphia 76ers were a title favorite when the season began. They have since slid to no more than a darkhorse, sitting at +2700 in the NBA Championship odds only a few days ago.

All-Star Ben Simmons left the game in the third quarter of their win over the Washington Wizards on Wednesday and was unable to return. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported on Thursday that Simmons has a subluxation of the left knee cap and is out indefinitely. Player and team are now considering treatment options.

Simmons’ injury has seen the Sixers odds alter drastically. As the table below shows, they are now way out at +5500 to lift the Larry O’Brien trophy this season.

2020 NBA Championship Odds

Odds taken August 10th

Deep Run Becomes Unlikely

All season long, the Sixers have been considered a team with a high ceiling. Much of that depended on Simmons and Joel Embiid finding a way to flourish simultaneously.

It is unknown at this stage how long Simmons will be on the sidelines. Brett Brown thinks they will know more on Friday, and Kevin O’Connor noted that Andrew Bynum had a similar injury in 2008, but it seems very unlikely that the Defensive Player of the Year candidate will feature in the Sixers’ first round series.

Ugh. Andrew Bynum sufferered the same knee injury in 2008. It was reported at the time as “at least eight weeks” before he could return. Hopefully Ben Simmons is able to recover and come back 100% healthy. https://t.co/j5Lk02NUAN

— Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) August 6, 2020

The Sixers would face the Boston Celtics in the first round as it stands. What a series that would have been with a healthy Simmons and Embiid.

Without Simmons, the Sixers become big underdogs to get out of the first round whether they face Boston or Miami. A deep run becomes very unlikely.

Simmons Bubble Struggles

It’s been a mixed start to competitive basketball in the bubble for the Sixers. TJ Warren torched Simmons on his way to 53 points as the Pacers beat Philly. Expected wins over the Spurs and Wizards followed, but Simmons was far from his best in those two games. He fouled out against San Antonio, scoring just eight points, and went two-for-10 from the field before leaving the game on Wednesday.

Embiid stepped up in a big way. He was dominant in the loss to Indiana, passed superbly out of double teams against the Spurs and took over down the stretch to hold off Washington. The Sixers need peak Embiid – the MVP level version of him – if they are to make any noise in the playoffs without Simmons.

While Philly have won without Simmons in their last two, they were victories over inferior teams. They will face tougher tests in the playoffs, and while Simmons has been an offensive liability at times in the post-season, he will be sorely missed on the defensive end.

Improved Spacing

Better spacing is perhaps the only positive from Simmons’ injury. The Sixers have struggled horribly with Simmons, Embiid and Al Horford on the floor together. In the minutes that Embiid and Horford share the floor, they will now always be accompanied by three perimeter threats.

Shake Milton on the 76ers losing Ben Simmons: "Ben is an incredible player, an incredible athlete. I don’t know … he’s like a freak, a super human. So hopefully he’s able to heal super fast and get back out on the court, because we need him."

— Tim Bontemps (@TimBontemps) August 6, 2020

Doubling Embiid in the post becomes tougher if he’s sharing the floor with players who will knock down open threes. If teams still double Embiid (which they will), it gives a chance for the Sixers to pick up some easy points. Embiid has shown a stark improvement in his passing in the seeding games.

What the Sixers lose in defense and playmaking outweighs any spacing benefit, however. They are already short of ball handlers – the burden on Shake Milton gets even greater without Simmons. A roster that is set up to be a defensive juggernaut loses its most versatile defender in Simmons.

Simmons’ injury obviously harms the Sixers’ chances. It lowers their ceiling. They can still be dangerous if Tobias Harris and Josh Richardson step up, and Embiid might put up some monster numbers, but they are not the sleeper pick to win it all that they are if Simmons is healthy.